$1200 NLHE MTT Rebuy: WSOP Main Event Satty At Foxwoods

  • Thread starter JPainTrainSicko
  • Start date
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
Hello everyone,

It's been a while since I posted in the hand analysis thread and here is an interesting one for you all to dissect!!

Villian is an older "The Dude" look alike from The Big Lebowski... That aside he has shown some tendencies to bet big and call and raise a bit in position. Mind you this is only 20 minutes into the tournament and the table in general has been a little loose and deep stack splashy.

I have been using larger open raises 4-4.5x and have been getting respect thus far. This is my 4th raise in the 20 minutes we have been seated.

Blinds are $25-50 no ante and we all still have around $20k starting stacks

I raise utg +1 4h6h to $225

( I don't always raise these types of hands, but when I notice players behind me disinterested, and I've been getting respect as a tight player I throw these hands in to balance and add board coverage, tho this is probably the lowest suited gapper I'd use in this range for this position)

Button the described villian goes to $550

I call flop A35 rainbow one heart.

Check call a $1k bet from Villian

Turn jack hearts again check call $2k

River A hearts

Check call $6k...

Let's see what you all think of the line I took and what you expect the villian to show up with

Results to follow after some analysis...

Thanks everyone
 
G

Gerb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 24, 2017
Total posts
120
Chips
0
Villain range should be something like 1010+, A10+, maybe some suited connectors like KQs, QJs. That would be what I would 3bet from the button with, not sure what others will say about it though. That might be too tight of a 3bet range from the button.

He has Ax's in this range that would bet like that, although might slow down on the turn with just one pair. I'd say this pushes the range of Ax towards AJ. I don't know how much an A on the flop would deter pocket pairs from cbetting, I think that depends on the player, but I would be very surprised to see a flop and turn bet in this spot from KK,QQ,1010 hands. Just very risky when he could check behind on one of the streets.

He may bet trip A's on the river, although it's risky given your calling line. I think it comes down to how likely you think he is to bet AK or AQ on the turn instead of check one street. If you think he could put you on a flush draw and is charging you, then he'd likely slow down once it hit and check the river. He didn't, so either 2 pair on the turn or not scared of the flush. Either way, I think you're beat.

Would he full pot on the flop with AA? Unlikely, given the dry-ish board.

He could 3 barrel on air, of course, but that looks like 2/3 pot sized bets each street, which would be a bold 3 barrel bluff I think. It could be though, but I don't think it's as likely, especially early in the tourney.

So you lose to JJ,AJ in his range that I could see 3 barrelling with. If he checked any of the streets, different story. Ax either check turn or river, and pocket pairs should check river at least, maybe even the turn too.

I don't know how much you beat here, anything less than a full house or higher flush for villain should be checking the river. Bluffs, yeah, but I doubt it based on sizing.

That said, I don't know if I could bring myself to fold the flush in the heat of the moment, even if it is 6 high.

Sorry for the novel.
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
Thank you Gerb for the very thoughtful reply! Novels are my favorite, no need for sorry! I much appreciate the response and look forward to more opinions. Watch for the reveal of the hand
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
One more note for this hand also and one I believe is very relevant, preflop the villian took a pause before raising approximately 6-10 seconds. Then bet each street relatively quickly with the river being the fastest at under two seconds. It was an instabet
 
0

021poker

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 21, 2017
Total posts
76
Chips
0
Based on all your information, considering the timing tell, your image ( specially you opened UTG almost 4x), and 3-bet sizing( not try to pushing you away from the pot). I am pretty sure the V has AA. Tough spot though! Hard to call the turn bet! I probably let my hand go pre!
 
Last edited:
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
open raise smaller. more respect is not a reason to open larger. its about the risk:reward. when you open 3x youre risking 3bb into a pot of 1.5bb (2:1) compared to opening 4.5x youre risking 4.5bb into a pot of 1.5bb (3:1) meaning your combined FE + PE (fold equity + pot equity) needs to be nearly 10% higher in order to maintain profitability and i think when you open to 4.5x people are going to be calling with tighter ranges meaning the added FE is negated by reduced PE and probably overall negative EV, rspecially with a hand like 6h4h. this is simplified math, as the potential reward obviously changes when villain calls meaning changes in PE has a greater impact than FE

also, your reasoning for opening 6h4h is not a good reason. "i usually dont play this but..." sounds a lot to me like "i was bored and this hand looked pretty"
you dont balance your range by adjusting based on your image, this makes me think your understanding of balanced play might be a little shaky. also even if you do balance you range that way, this is way too wide. "this is the lowest suited gapoer I play here" well, there are only two lower suited gappers, it doesnt get much lower than that.

you balance your opening range when you initially construct your ranges off the table and then your range is already balanced and then you stick to your range consistently and your image just allows your opponents to make mistakes in reading your hand.

obviously when he 3bets you have to call because you are getting a good price, but if he 3bet to 700 or more youd have to fold.

the flop he bets 1k into a 1.2k pot. you have no bluff catcher and only 8 outs, fold. you need 1:4.1 or better to call here and youre getting 1:2 calling here is burning money.

you pick up another 9 outs on the turn so you can call 1:2 profitably and he gives you a better price (1:2.5) so calling turn is +EV

on the river, you spike the flush. now is where you need to think about his range. sure you can call here, sometimes he has better flushes, sometimes he has full houses, sometimes he has quads. does he bet with enough worse hands to profitably call? what percent of his range is 3 of a kind? honestly i think his range is going to be 3 of a kind (AK, AQ) close to 50% the time, although Im on my phone so i cant check with my poker tools what his range looks like combinatorially (see combonatorics) and im too lazy to manually count combos. but you only need to have the best hand about 30% of the time to profitably call the river bet. the next question is does he call a check raise all-in with 3 of a kind here. if so, check raise him all in, you've already committed half your stack to calling his river bet, might as well go with it while youre ahead of his calling range. if he doesnt call with AK and AQ here and only calls with better hands then just check-calling is the correct move.

fold pre
as played, call 3 bet
as played, fold flop
as played, check call
as played check call or possibly check raise.
 
Last edited:
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
One more note for this hand also and one I believe is very relevant, preflop the villian took a pause before raising approximately 6-10 seconds. Then bet each street relatively quickly with the river being the fastest at under two seconds. It was an instabet

this is hardly relevant, for all you know he could just be considering what size to 3bet, he is obviously bad at bet sizing.
 
Last edited:
MoryMorte

MoryMorte

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 10, 2016
Total posts
298
Chips
0
Villain has an A at least, and probably AA. He min re raises preflop which usually fishes do with QQ+. He is betting all the way so He likes his hand.
He can show up with AJ+ too but not so likely.
He can't have a flush here but can have a boat or quad
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
Villain has an A at least, and probably AA.

I agree villain probably has an A, but not definitely, but I would totally disagree on "probably AA" there is only one possible combination of AA while there are 8 combonations of AK, 8 combonations of AQ, 6 combonations of AJ (2 if hes only 3beting suited AJ pre) 6 combos of KK, 6 combos of QQ and 3 combos of JJ, so the odds of AA are 1 in 40 conservatively. meanwhile he has AK 20% of the time and AQ another 20% of the time, making those the most probable hands

i also agree he probably doesnt have the better flush after thinking about it primarily because the ace of hearts blocks most flushes he can have here. the only flush he can really have here after 3betting is KhQh but I honestly dont think he 3bets that here, and even if he does, it still makes up such a small part of his range.
 
Last edited:
M

Mahsa dMo

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 27, 2017
Total posts
108
Chips
0
I agree villain probably has an A, but not definitely, but I would totally disagree on "probably AA" there is only one possible combination of AA while there are 8 combonations of AK, 8 combonations of AQ, 6 combonations of AJ (2 if hes only 3beting suited AJ pre) 6 combos of KK, 6 combos of QQ and 3 combos of JJ, so the odds of AA are 1 in 40 conservatively. meanwhile he has AK 20% of the time and AQ another 20% of the time, making those the most probable hands

i also agree he probably doesnt have the better flush after thinking about it primarily because the ace of hearts blocks most flushes he can have here. the only flush he can really have here after 3betting is KhQh but I honestly dont think he 3bets that here, and even if he does, it still makes up such a small part of his range.

The question is,
When villain almost min raises preflop, what is his range?
I tend to give them a monster range. To me it's a fish tell.
He cant do it with KQs probably so he can't have a better flush.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
The question is,
When villain almost min raises preflop, what is his range?
I tend to give them a monster range. To me it's a fish tell.
He cant do it with KQs probably so he can't have a better flush.
it depends on the player, a minraise could just mean he is bad at bet sizing, which hes demonstrated on the flop and river. if he is deceptive enough to 3bet small with AA, then why would he bet nearly pot on the flop with top set on a board where no one is going to pay him off?

even if he does do it with only monsters, a lot of players consider AK a monster making it 8 times more likely than AA. honestly though I wouldnt read too much into the sizing until we have more than 20 minutes of information on the player
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
Mbrenneman0

On the flop you said the odds are not favorable to call, what about implied odds should we hit our hand?

Also you say timing tells are irrelevant, would you not consider the instabet to be either a bluff or nutted? Wouldn't middling hands need time to think about what to do more?

As far as range construction and balancing, you say you construct a range and stick to it. You never adjust that range based on the players at your table? Do you always raise a hand that's in your raising range Everytime you see it? I may have said it poorly or confusing, what I was saying is I will throw hands like that in from time to time. But not necessarily raise it Everytime I get it. My theory on that may be wrong, but I'm of the impression that should I look left and see someone ready to raise I can fold, or at a particularly tough table I can fold certain hands in ranges as well.

Last question is about raise sizing, do you ever increase your standard raise sizing? Like in this case, this size had been my go to as where the table was 3.75-4, I went a little bigger. Part of my thinking on that is to look fishy and to build bigger pots.

I appreciate your well thought out responses and look forward to what your thoughts are on these questions.
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
Another factor to consider everyone,
This is a rebuy and tho it's a larger buyin some of these players are not afraid to fire off two or three bullets. Curious how much that would influence decisions.
 
Last edited:
xkenjix

xkenjix

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 5, 2017
Total posts
223
Awards
1
Chips
2
Another factor to consider everyone,
This is a rebuy and tho it's a larger buyin some of these players are not afraid to fire off two or three bullets. Curious how much that would influence decisions.

since you mentioned its a rebuy, players tend be be looser but what is his 3-bet range that beats us right now? KQhh-A-J(possibly A-3/5?). i wouldnt mind leading flop since your hand is very disguised and you could be repping an A here. i dont mind check call with so many outs if flush outs are live). i probably sigh call here
 
B

bumerangue

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 29, 2017
Total posts
132
Chips
0
Besides the range analysis, IMO the 80% pot bet on the flop Its instafold. There´s no reason to raise preflop in such a early stage, its like a friend of mine says, if theres no antes, theres no reason to play, especially 46s in early position
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Total posts
1,536
Awards
1
Chips
0
These are all great questions, I hope I can give these answers justice. these are of course my theories and not the end all be all of game theory or anything. I'm still learning and improving just like anyone else with a long way to go

Mbrenneman0

On the flop you said the odds are not favorable to call, what about implied odds should we hit our hand?
so he's giving us practically 1:2 odds, in order for this to be favorable, to continue, we need 1:4 odds. that means on average we need to be able to extract another 2k worth of value on on turn and river and also not get hit with any redraws to a better hand he might have. does he always continue on a 7 or 2 turn? what if he checks back turn and folds to a river bet? this is extremely thin. and we probably do not have the implied odds to continue. obviously in this particular hand he does continue, but we cannot be results oriented and assume he always does continue. maybe he only continues here because of the heart or the jack that he thinks is in your range and could get value from... we dont know

Also you say timing tells are irrelevant, would you not consider the instabet to be either a bluff or nutted? Wouldn't middling hands need time to think about what to do more?
keyword "hardly" relevant i believe was my choice of words, not irrelevant. yes, sometimes, timing tells are very useful. in this case, we already can range him pretty well without the timing tell, and also we only have 20 minutes worth of information on him. you cant possibly have an accurate read on the guy in roughly 10 hands to be able to tell if an instabet is truely nutted or if he just overvalues certain hands. of course the nuts would be AA, the second nuts AJ, the 3rd JJ, and the fourth would be KhQh, but does he never overvalue 3 of a kind aces, which is nowhere near the nuts, to instabet here? some players dont think about relative hand strength and only think about absolute hand strength, to a player that only considers absolute hand strength, 3 of a kind aces might as well be the nuts. we simply do not have enough information on the player to adjust the range we can already give him based on this.

As far as range construction and balancing, you say you construct a range and stick to it. You never adjust that range based on the players at your table? Do you always raise a hand that's in your raising range Everytime you see it? I may have said it poorly or confusing, what I was saying is I will throw hands like that in from time to time. But not necessarily raise it Everytime I get it. My theory on that may be wrong, but I'm of the impression that should I look left and see someone ready to raise I can fold, or at a particularly tough table I can fold certain hands in ranges as well.
My opening range stays fairly static. I usually adjust my calling range and 3bet range based on the other players but for the most part, open raising range doesnt have much need for adjustment, although if i do adjust my open raising range, its going to be in late position (HJ or later) theres not as much room to adjust UTG because you should already be playing tight UTG. I am a loose aggressive player but my EP opening range is 22+ / A2s+ / AJo+ / KTs+ / KJo+ / QTs+ / QJo / JTs / T9s
that is a range that is already balanced with strong hands and speculative hands. kerp in mind that this is considered a very loose UTG range, especially my low pocket pairs and A2s, but these are the hands that being balance to my strong hands. playing too many speculative hands means that there are more speculative hands in your range than value hands and that makes it unbalanced. additionally, my speculative hands are still very strong with big potential.

honestly though I would recommend playing tighter UTG until you know you are better at postflop.

ideally, I should already have a plan for postflop with each part of my range, although personally, I need to spend more time in the lab working out those plans. example, low pocket pairs, im looking for sets, or boards that I can bluff well on orA2s Im looking for NFD and wheel draws

also, if you do adjust your range, you want to adjust opposite to your table. if theyre playing extremely loose, tighten up, if they are extremely tight, open up. but your adjustments to your UTG range will be much smaller adjustments than to your BTN or HJ range.

Last question is about raise sizing, do you ever increase your standard raise sizing? Like in this case, this size had been my go to as where the table was 3.75-4, I went a little bigger. Part of my thinking on that is to look fishy and to build bigger pots.

I appreciate your well thought out responses and look forward to what your thoughts are on these questions.
I do sometimes but rarely, and especially not with speculative hands. usially when I do its with a specific purpose and not to get more respect but if I have a specific read on the table dynamic which usually involves having more than one tournament of history with several of the players to act behind me. another problem with increasing your raise size preflop, especially on speculative hands that i didnt really go over that i should have is that it reduces SPR postflop which reduces implied odds and costs a larger portion of your stack on a speculation.
 
Last edited:
Omahahahaha

Omahahahaha

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 28, 2012
Total posts
554
Awards
1
Chips
15
fold pre ur cards are too little
 
J

JPainTrainSicko

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
445
Awards
1
Chips
1
Thank you everyone for the great feedback! This conversation helped me and gave me some new insights and I hope it did the same for those of you who contributed too. I appreciate all the reply and very much appreciate mbrenneman0's thurough efforts to to break down the hand.

In this hand we call and the villian hesitates to roll his hand over. Sheepish looking that he had been called, giving me hope the call was a winner.... Then he rolled over JJ and we saw the bad news.

Good luck everyone and play well!
 
WSOP
Top