$12 NLHE MTT Turbo: (Too) aggressive play with 99 vs a CS

12$ SUPER TURBO Catfish on 888:

Villain is a heavy CS. Because of the structure of the board I somehow feel I have to stackoff, or am I wrong? On the Flop there is just 1 over, I think i have to barrel vs the CS, even OOP and then the Turn doesnt change too much, right? Is there some argument for checking/folding either flop or turn (after preflop action)?
Or maybe don't play 99 so aggressive to begin with?


888 Poker - 50/100 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 8 players

MP: 52.1 BB (VPIP: 18.44, PFR: 11.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.60, hands: 430)
MP+1: 49.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 38.53 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
BTN: 129.65 BB (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 26.26, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 106)
Hero (SB): 41.23 BB
BB: 45.43 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 14.91, 3Bet Preflop: 10.26, Hands: 120)
UTG: 46.67 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG+1: 30.94 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 61)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 9:spade: 9:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6.86 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.86 BB

Flop: (15.52 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond: 3:diamond: 7:diamond:
Hero bets 7.76 BB, BTN calls 7.76 BB

Turn: (31.04 BB, 2 players) T:spade:
Hero bets 26.51 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 26.51 BB

River: (84.06 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:

BTN shows Q:heart: 8:heart: (Two Pair, Queens and Threes)
(Pre 32%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows 9:spade: 9:club: (Two Pair, Nines and Threes)
(Pre 68%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
BTN wins 84.06 BB

Considering how loose he was and this raise was in late position and a probably steal attempts I would have 3 bet him preflop as well but a tad smaller. Part of my reason for 3 betting him pre is the fact 99 does not play well post flop as well.

The flop stinks as there is an over card and a possible flush made or draw. The problem is if he has a decent flush draw he wont be folding, if a queen he is not folding. This is just a lousy spot. Depending on your read of this guy i would check call the fold hoping he would check behind. I just think there are enough hands he could have that can continue for a loose player.

Once he calls the flop bet I think I am done with this hand. Other than the draw what are we beating here? I think the bet was to much but I understand why you made it. I was a great try though.

Done on the flop as mentioned by Ken. Given his stack size compared to yours, your pre flop reraise size is lousy. He will likely call with a wide range up to 10bb or so.

I don't really mind your 3-bet preflop. If you went smaller on it he would never fold and you would have been better off by just calling. But when the flop came you had several reasons to slow down: one overcard, possible flush or at least a flush draw. The turn was an even worse spot to shove.

3bet is fine, I'd have just gone for 3x personally. Cbet also ok, but I might just have fired 40-45%. That said, neither your 3bet or cbet were bad at all.

I check the turn though. You've got 34 BB left before that turn bet, you don't need to commit your tournament life here to such a gamble on a board with two overcards and a flush draw. If you ARE going to continue, the shove is the better play, as any reasonable bet is not going to leave enough behind to make an impactful bet on the river. I still don't like it with so many BB left in your stack, not even in a turbo format. You have to believe a better spot is going to come for you rather than firing it all in here.

After checking the turn I just hope to see a showdown without investing any more money in the pot. I’d be calling any small bet that I’d consider gave me good odds to call, any sort of ridiculous min bet or something up to about 1/3 pot. Otherwise I’d be folding to aggression.

Looking at the equity you actually hold against villain's range, villain looks pretty loose, but he is only opening 26% overall. Of course he is on the button and if he has any idea of position he could be a bit wider than that. Maybe that is going to be something along the lines of 22+, all broadway, maybe all aces, K8+ and some suited connectors - let's assume about 32% for the sake of the discussion.
99 is ahead of that range 61% to 39% pre flop. You're still ahead about 60% to 40% after the flop. And still ahead 56% to 44% on the turn.
But hang on… what hands would villain have folded to your 3bet? And what would he have 4bet? Let’s take out AA & KK. And also take out some weaker aces, weaker kings, lower offsuit broadways and suited connectors and narrow his 3bet calling range back to about 18% - something like 22+, Axs, A9o+, suited broadway, QJo, KJo+, T9s. I’m leaving it pretty wide open here as villain looks like very loose. Now you’re only ahead 55% to 45% on the flop. And on the turn it is 50/50. If villain was folding out even tighter to a 3 bet, which is definitely possible, the odds swing even further into their favour.
So basically you’re shoving to coinflip, or worse, for 34BB and your tournament life, and I’d suggest there is very little fold equity against a loose fishy player.

This sort of equity analysis is obviously difficult to make in the heat of the moment, which is why I’d just be going back to the obvious facts to make my decision at the time: two overcards to your pair, we’re out of position in the small blind, a fishy opponent likely to call most bets and you have 34BB left for a better spot. Easy check/fold.

very loogical explained, thanks a lot @GreenDaddy1, next time i'll try to approach a similar hand the way u explained it, even though in the heat of battle it's sometimes hard to stay calm