$12 NLHE MTT: ICM question: Is A10o a call here?

Larmuar · Oct 24, 2018

FT of the 12$ early catfish on 888.
I am wondering how far you can go with ICM, so my question is like it says in the title: is this a call in the BB with A10o?
Maybe you guys even get some reads out of BTN's openshove instead of raise/fold or call?

888 Poker - 2500/5000 Ante 625 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

UTG: 27.69 BB (VPIP: 23.38, PFR: 16.30, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, hands: 282)
MP: 30.43 BB (VPIP: 26.72, PFR: 19.30, 3Bet Preflop: 8.89, Hands: 117)
CO: 23.65 BB (VPIP: 17.71, PFR: 14.18, 3Bet Preflop: 9.91, Hands: 272)
BTN: 36.12 BB (VPIP: 21.12, PFR: 17.06, 3Bet Preflop: 8.43, Hands: 236)
SB: 14.76 BB (VPIP: 26.42, PFR: 21.15, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 54)
Hero (BB): 17.34 BB

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has A:spade: T:club:

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 36 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero ?

8bod8 · Oct 24, 2018

I like your question, but I have no idea.
This is just a tag to keep me informed of progress, as I'm sure there will be excellent response.

GreenDaddy1 · Oct 24, 2018

Villain looks to have decent TAG stats, so he should have pretty wide range here to steal with.

I fold to the shove though. If he had just made a standard 2-3x raise I'd have shoved to make a re-steal with those hole cards.

I've been trying to play 10 to 25BB short stacks with a lot more aggression and a lot more shoving early in the hand, rather than getting into tough spots that cripple my chip stack. From most positions I'm responding to a single raise by shoving the likes of TT+ & AQ+. I'll be more cautious against a raise and a 3 bet, and tighten my shoves probably just to AA & KK (adding in QQ & AK as I get closer to 10BB and further from 25BB).
In the Big Blind however I'm shoving a lot more against steal attempts, but trying to observe the action/villain before I do. Against a button raise from a solid TAG and a small blind fold with 17BB as you have there I'd be shoving back with any pair, loads of Ax and Kx, about 25% of hands. Additionally I'll have a calling range of weaker hands too. The button could be opening with 50% of hands, you can't allow yourself to be pushed around and give up the BB too easy.

I'm honestly unsure what the correct play is when the button open shoves over you here, but as I said above currently I'd be folding. I'm interested in what some of the more experience folks have to say about this spot also, will check back to read later.

Perhaps he has shoved here due to the stack sizes ahead of him, SB has about 15 BB and you have 17BB. Chances are good that one of these short stacks is going to shove over a steal that is just a standard raise size. Perhaps villain saw this as the most profitable way to steal the blinds.

Larmuar · Oct 24, 2018

I thought some more about why is is directly shoving instead of raise/calling here and how this narrows his range: I think he wanted to avoid to be forced in a flip or marginal +ev call with his holding, BECAUSE he currently is the chipleader. So instead of risking his chiplead he chooses the more safe route to establish his chiplead a bit further. Although I think he never has AK or JJ+ here, because he didnt want to loose equity with this hands though. i's like to hear from you if this is a correct assumtion and my poker logic somewhat is working in this case (lol!)

GreenDaddy1 · Oct 24, 2018

This is a good read on the subject of big blind defense with a short stack: https://upswingpoker.com/guide-big-blind-defense-mtts-modern-short-stack-play/

Tuan · Oct 24, 2018

So, the button can shove with a lot of Kx and Ax here, I think A10o will be favorite most of the time here against his shoving range. Plus, the ante and the blinds are too big now, it is the right time to take a stand and call his shove. We need chips and A10 is a perfect hand to defend; even though, there is a short stack in front of us. I wonder what is the pay jump?

Matt Vaughan · Oct 24, 2018

We can't really answer the question here without knowing the pay jumps - do you have that information? It's REALLY important. For example, if this was say, winner take all, we'd just be playing for chipEV. If it's a typical top-heavy MTT payouts, ICM plays a pretty major factor, so knowing and reacting to all the stack sizes matters.

If we know the payouts, I can plug this all into ICMizer and get pretty damn close to the "right" answer here, at least insofar as the opponent is jamming "correctly" or close to it.

My gut says that there's only a little ICM pressure on us when we're in the BB (about to pay the SB) and the only shorter stack is CLOSE to us in chips and is about to be in the BTN. So with that in mind, I don't think we need to deviate far from chipEV, and I THINK a Nash solution will at least be reasonable (maybe people jam a LITTLE tight here but it's probably outweighed by the guy being more willing to jam his weaker hands and min open his monsters).

And my gut says ATo is a Nash +chipEV call here... All that to say, I think calling off here is probably fine, but if we know the payouts, we can know with more certainty.

Luvepoker · Oct 25, 2018

We really need to know what the payouts are but I think i would fold it here. ATo is not a bad hand but what are we really beating here? A9s maybe? If he was raising a lot more hands I could see calling but you dominated by a lot of aces and pairs you are behind. He could have KQ but would push it all in here? I would rather be the one who pushes ATo than calling with it in this spot.

akmost · Oct 26, 2018

Nice posts guys, those comments are very helpful!

I have one question though ,apparently we need to run this hand to ICMer given the pay jumps but what about the steal stat of our Villain here? Isn't relevant how hard he keeps stealing unopened pots? We also need this information, seems like he knows what he does in general , he attacked the two shorter stacks and I feel he knows that the SB/BB don't have often a fold here.

His stats over 200+ hands seems ok and without knowing any other info he can jam here any PP so we flipping almost always IMO.

ps. Matt yesterday I found your YT video about capped ranges.Thank you!

JoeKampman · Oct 26, 2018

Fold. Villain is either on a big pair or monster starting hand AK AQ etc. Chances of winning if that is the right read are very small. I’d hold out and hope for a better chance to open from a stronger position. Not saying shoving with 17 BB is the wrong play just maybe not in this situation. IMHO. But I’m no pro either.

Matt Vaughan · Oct 26, 2018

akmost said:
Nice posts guys, those comments are very helpful!

I have one question though ,apparently we need to run this hand to ICMer given the pay jumps but what about the steal stat of our Villain here? Isn't relevant how hard he keeps stealing unopened pots? We also need this information, seems like he knows what he does in general , he attacked the two shorter stacks and I feel he knows that the SB/BB don't have often a fold here.

His stats over 200+ hands seems ok and without knowing any other info he can jam here any PP so we flipping almost always IMO.

ps. Matt yesterday I found your YT video about capped ranges.Thank you!

I think the steal stat is relevant but often that's going to take a while to really converge due to the positional nature of the stat. So falling back on Nash ranges and then deviating based on reads is how I would approach spots like this.

Also it's important to note that just bc he can jam any PP here doesn't mean we are flipping vs range. If he also jams AJ+ but never jams KQ or worse for instance (making his jamming range 22+/AJo+/AJs+) then we only have like 35% equity and would be hemorrhaging money by getting it in here.

Now I think there's likely some worse stuff in there too, and if there's substantial weaker Ax then we have to go with it most likely but just wanted to point out that adding all PPs on top of the strongest Ax doesn't inherently make this a call.

liuouhgkres · Oct 26, 2018

Typical cardschat nits saying fold again. It is a very standard call here, not open for discussion.

Matt Vaughan · Oct 26, 2018

liuouhgkres said:
Typical cardschat nits saying fold again. It is a very standard call here, not open for discussion.

This isn't the most useful way to responsd, liuouhgkres. Even if you're correct (and I do tend to agree that it's a call), calling everyone nits randomly and also giving no justification for your own response doesn't help anyone.

A more useful response won't be inflammatory, and will also give reasons that support your position.

JoeKampman · Oct 27, 2018

liuouhgkres said:
Typical cardschat nits saying fold again. It is a very standard call here, not open for discussion.

Thanks for giving me a heads up on what I am. I believe at the end there I made my claim to be no pro like you apparently are. I was enjoying myself until I came across this comment. I wouldn't call you a nit that's for sure. How about an arrogant Ass. That looks to fit! I'll be sure just to keep my comments to myself from now on. That will make it more difficult to get the required amount of posts though. Thanks for your input.

puzzlefish · Oct 27, 2018

It is standard to call but also would not be out of line to fold depending on what you want to achieve in the tournament. It may seem nitty to let villain steal the blinds with your ATo, but you're otherwise putting your tournament life on the line without so much as a pair. At 17bb I don't think you're at the point where you need to make a stand here.

akmost · Oct 27, 2018

JoeKampman said:
Thanks for giving me a heads up on what I am. I believe at the end there I made my claim to be no pro like you apparently are. I was enjoying myself until I came across this comment. I wouldn't call you a nit that's for sure. How about an arrogant Ass. That looks to fit! I'll be sure just to keep my comments to myself from now on. That will make it more difficult to get the required amount of posts though. Thanks for your input.

Guys come on , this isn't necessary at all!

First of all welcome to the community!
I don't think it was something personal.
Apparently the one liner response by the other guy isn't what everybody seeking for. We have the pleasure to read the answer of a true poker beast like Matt ''Scourrge'' here.

This is a forum and everyone can freely express his opinion but OK in such spots whenever a pro comments I always read the post and if I have any question or I don't totally agree I comment back.But in those cases are really rare because Math never lie.

Peace everyone

Larmuar · Oct 27, 2018

Sorry guys, was away for some days. Thanks a lot for all the comments and I find it quite interesting that its seems we are talking about a borderline hand here.
So now, here are the payouts, top 18 paid:

1. 23%
2. 16%
3. 12.15%
4. 9%
5. 6%
6. 5%
7. 4%
8. 3%
9. 2.5%
10.-12. 2.25%
13.-15. 2.15%
16.-18. 2.05%

The BTN shover is solid (at least at low stakes) REG, he knows what he's doing, no sign of speewing around or any missplays at all.

I'am not sure where this player cut the line of shoving and just open-folds. And I'am also not so sure if he would raise/fold a Hand like A2 or Kx vs SB & BB stacksizes here. The danger of getting 3bet and forced to fold is quite high in this spot (my 3bet stats are fairly high and he surely noticed that). So maybe his range is quite capped and if he raise (non shove) in this exact spot he would mostly raise/call with his strongest hands and just openfolds the weaker Aces or Kx. What do you think? (obv. it would be another Situation if we were all evengly stacked at lik 30bb+)

liuouhgkres · Oct 27, 2018

JoeKampman said:
Thanks for giving me a heads up on what I am. I believe at the end there I made my claim to be no pro like you apparently are. I was enjoying myself until I came across this comment. I wouldn't call you a nit that's for sure. How about an arrogant Ass. That looks to fit! I'll be sure just to keep my comments to myself from now on. That will make it more difficult to get the required amount of posts though. Thanks for your input.

I don't get why you feel offended. Nits are nits, how else you would call them? If you are nit, you should accept it as a reality and be proud of your true self. I'm not judging you or other nits, but even if other people judge nits, it shouldn't have a dent in your heroic nittyness.

You can call me whatever you want, I'm not LAC graduate to lose sleep over these kind of things.

liuouhgkres · Oct 27, 2018

Scourrge said:
This isn't the most useful way to responsd, liuouhgkres. Even if you're correct (and I do tend to agree that it's a call), calling everyone nits randomly and also giving no justification for your own response doesn't help anyone.

A more useful response won't be inflammatory, and will also give reasons that support your position.

I agree, my comment was not very useful, your remark is on point. But if you are going to be that stringent, you should warn 90% of posts at forum in general, since 90% of posts are written not to genuinely contribute to the topic, but just to fulfill requirements to become (and retain) CC member. Look at any hand analysis topic and you see bunch of guys respond, even though they have no idea. Not only they are not useful, their posts are actually harmful, because 1. they give wrong answer and 2. they dilute quality posts. Would it be beneficial for OP to start folding AT in these spots? He very well might do it from today, thanks to some responses here.

Larmuar · Oct 27, 2018

@liuou
I like to post hands here to get some critic from "different angles". Also, I'am not a sheep and might be able to differ between useful responses and thoughts I can ignore (even thou my bad use of language (english!) ain't indicating I would be able of such a thought process). So please, leave it to me what I do and how I process the information and opinions I get confronted with here.

In this particular situation I adjusted in this sense from "I - dont - know - why - but - I - have - to - call" to a more complex understanding for such a spot with the result that I will sometimes fold such a hand in the future, in such a Spot, if the Player stats strongly indicate that I should. And don't get my wrong, AJ will still be a snapcall there all the time.

liuouhgkres · Oct 27, 2018

Larmuar said:
@liuou
I like to post hands here to get some critic from "different angles". Also, I'am not a sheep and might be able to differ between useful responses and thoughts I can ignore (even thou my bad use of language (english!) ain't indicating I would be able of such a thought process). So please, leave it to me what I do and how I process the information and opinions I get confronted with here.

In this particular situation I adjusted in this sense from "I - dont - know - why - but - I - have - to - call" to a more complex understanding for such a spot with the result that I will sometimes fold such a hand in the future, in such a Spot, if the Player stats strongly indicate that I should. And don't get my wrong, AJ will still be a snapcall there all the time.

My question was more of a rhetorical nature, you and this hand analysis were just examples. You might make right conclusions, but many other OPs will make wrong conclusions for same reasons I outlined in my post.

Matt Vaughan · Oct 28, 2018

liuouhgkres said:
I agree, my comment was not very useful, your remark is on point. But if you are going to be that stringent, you should warn 90% of posts at forum in general, since 90% of posts are written not to genuinely contribute to the topic, but just to fulfill requirements to become (and retain) CC member. Look at any hand analysis topic and you see bunch of guys respond, even though they have no idea. Not only they are not useful, their posts are actually harmful, because 1. they give wrong answer and 2. they dilute quality posts. Would it be beneficial for OP to start folding AT in these spots? He very well might do it from today, thanks to some responses here.

I think what you're saying is definitely true to a degree - there are always going to be a decent % of posts that are short, a bit less useful, and probably not in the spirit of this sub forum. We should also bear in mind though that many posters come to CC for the freerolls (and thus their first 30 "quality posts" tend to be a bit weak on average), but many stay for the environment, which for the most part is friendly, quality, and informative.

When I go back and look at my own first few threads and posts on CC from like 2012, they are super weak, and overall probably not that "valuable" to the forum as a whole. But I don't think I'm overstepping now to say that at this point in my CC "career," I've provided back a lot of value.

Also in my experience when people post a one liner "well I'd do this" and it's not super valuable, and the person has a low post count, it typically stands out and is obvious. Those posting hands for analysis should be reading all responses but not taking any answer as gospel. The key is is interpretation and incorporating into their own game. We're all here to help each other but the ownership is always on the individual.

So if you see two posts, one that is a one-liner from a 15 post count person and one that is 2 short paragraphs with solid reasoning from a 500 post count person, it makes common sense to give more credence to one than the other.

Anyway what I'm driving at is that those posts aren't SUPER helpful in the short-term, but they're not toxic to the forum either. And in the long-term, some of those posters go on to become skilled and experienced forum contributors. We all started near the bottom for the most part. We find and join forums typically seeking help, but go on to provide it in return down the road.

Circle of life and all that.

Lastly (and I know, I know, this got super long), is that part of nurturing new posters and helping them become legitimate contributors comes from displaying respect, and a willingness bear with everyone. What you see as useless posts actually come from an individual person behind the keyboard, and those folks, with the right nudges, will go on to be the lifeblood of CC in months or years.

Thanks for being open to reconsidering your approach man. That's rare to see these days on the internet, so cheers.

JoeKampman · Oct 28, 2018

liuouhgkres said:
I don't get why you feel offended. Nits are nits, how else you would call them? If you are nit, you should accept it as a reality and be proud of your true self. I'm not judging you or other nits, but even if other people judge nits, it shouldn't have a dent in your heroic nittyness.

You can call me whatever you want, I'm not LAC graduate to lose sleep over these kind of things.

I want to apologize to you. I had no right to say the things I said to you. I was not aware of how things worked here. After looking over more of the site and doing a lot of reading, I agree. My comments do not belong on threads like this. Especially involving tournament play which is my weak point. I do pretty well in low cash games 1/2 & 2/5 NL, but even there the most I've ever won in a night is $500. I found this site through Twitter which I never had much use for till I started following some poker players on there. Some guy named Bell from here keeps answering me and tweeting back at me so I thought I'd come check it out. I need a new hobby that doesn't require a lot of physical activity and I've always enjoyed poker so here I am. When I learn something I do not half ass it so I am trying to learn everything that I can. Sorry for being so long winded. To make all this shorter, I apologize for calling you an ass. I will keep my post where they belong from now on.

playinggameswithu · Oct 28, 2018

36BB id snap fold AKo.

liuouhgkres · Oct 29, 2018

Scourrge said:
I think what you're saying is definitely true to a degree - there are always going to be a decent % of posts that are short, a bit less useful, and probably not in the spirit of this sub forum. We should also bear in mind though that many posters come to CC for the freerolls (and thus their first 30 "quality posts" tend to be a bit weak on average), but many stay for the environment, which for the most part is friendly, quality, and informative.

When I go back and look at my own first few threads and posts on CC from like 2012, they are super weak, and overall probably not that "valuable" to the forum as a whole. But I don't think I'm overstepping now to say that at this point in my CC "career," I've provided back a lot of value.

Also in my experience when people post a one liner "well I'd do this" and it's not super valuable, and the person has a low post count, it typically stands out and is obvious. Those posting hands for analysis should be reading all responses but not taking any answer as gospel. The key is is interpretation and incorporating into their own game. We're all here to help each other but the ownership is always on the individual.

So if you see two posts, one that is a one-liner from a 15 post count person and one that is 2 short paragraphs with solid reasoning from a 500 post count person, it makes common sense to give more credence to one than the other.

Anyway what I'm driving at is that those posts aren't SUPER helpful in the short-term, but they're not toxic to the forum either. And in the long-term, some of those posters go on to become skilled and experienced forum contributors. We all started near the bottom for the most part. We find and join forums typically seeking help, but go on to provide it in return down the road.

Circle of life and all that.

Lastly (and I know, I know, this got super long), is that part of nurturing new posters and helping them become legitimate contributors comes from displaying respect, and a willingness bear with everyone. What you see as useless posts actually come from an individual person behind the keyboard, and those folks, with the right nudges, will go on to be the lifeblood of CC in months or years.

Thanks for being open to reconsidering your approach man. That's rare to see these days on the internet, so cheers.

Scourrge, you are too good, kind and little bit too naive for this world. You shouldn't expect everybody become next Scourrge, please.

$12 NLHE MTT: ICM question: Is A10o a call here?

Larmuar

Enthusiast

8bod8

Legend

GreenDaddy1

Rock Star

Larmuar

Enthusiast

GreenDaddy1

Rock Star

Tuan

Enthusiast

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants

Luvepoker

Lost in the twilight zone

akmost

Rising Star

JoeKampman

Rock Star

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants

liuouhgkres

Visionary

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants

JoeKampman

Rock Star

puzzlefish

student of the donk arts

akmost

Rising Star

Larmuar

Enthusiast

liuouhgkres

Visionary

liuouhgkres

Visionary

Larmuar

Enthusiast

liuouhgkres

Visionary

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants

JoeKampman

Rock Star

playinggameswithu

Legend

liuouhgkres

Visionary

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