$1115 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $1115 HPO REGIONAL MAIN EVENT(Play correct?)

Okay so I got moved to a new table and third hand in utg I get AK suited diamonds. Blinds 400/800 50 ante, so I make it 2,250(I have about 53k), middle position player goes all in short of 20k( went all in two hands before this one). It folds to the big blind, he ask for a count and tanks for a moment, he flats the All in(he had about 85 to 90k to start)... I put him on 10s or JJ, I think for a moment and shove the rest of my stack. My thought here is the extra 33k over the top would make it difficult for him to call, which it did, he tanked for a few minutes.... Then called.

I'm just wondering if I should have folded knowing I'm behind to a pair or was the Pressure and shove the right play??

Judging from the blinds I'm guessing this is not a bubble situation??

This is a tricky spot and I have definitely been known to fold here or shove mostly depending on my skill edge against the other players. I think mostly I'm folding tho, I tend to see the cold call as very strong and in this spot not much fold equity in a shove, also even tho the all in player made this move a few hands earlier I do not discount a strong hand. Being you opened with a strong raise from an early position I actually more put this player on a strong hand mostly, unless it's a player I've noticed is excessively splashy or tilting. So we are taking AK to a three handed war where we are at risk vs one opponent. Let's break down the math on why I don't see fold equity

Assuming a full table there is 1700 before any action plus your 2250 the 20 from the shove and the 20k flat. That makes the pot 43950, by shoving over for 51k total you bring the pot to 95k. The cold caller then has to call 33k, this is about 3-1 and almost no cold calling hand should be folding getting those odds.

So the question is do you want to take AK suited to war at this point in a 3 handed pot where you are hoping to be flipping or can you take a lower variance spot later on? Everyone has different opinions on this and it's all preferential to your style of play.... like I said at times I go the high variance route but more and more lately I'm opting to find a spot with lower variance.

Very curious to see others opinions and critiques of my thoughts.

Yea after thinking about the hand I cane to the conclusion that if I had a bigger stack I make this move, he would have folded, he begrudgingly called 33k so double or not that he folds I'm sure..... I usually play a tight game in these spots(folded pocket 99s pre late in tournies and folded top pair with QJ on turn even given odds), but I really thought I could get the fold, he finished 12th I believe. The guy who finished 2nd I knocked out of the 100k the weekend before ... I really wish I folded I was zoned in and like you said found a better spot.

Agree with Sicko it's all about style at this point. Do you want to take a flip to try for a big stack. However, I think that should be applied more in a heads up situation. Once the big stack flats the jam, I think you have to let Ak go. Part of the power of AK is fold equity. You have zero here. Let's say the holdings of the two other players are a big A v pair. You'll sometimes scoop, sometimes break even, sometimes bust. It's rare you have them both dominated. Sometimes your flipping against them both. There are time we are dominated when one of them has KK or AA (in fact the suspicious flat makes me weight the big stack to AA and KK because they're begging you to flat or come over the top). We could work all the math out, but I still think even if the odds are close folding is the right play. If it were cash game maybe it becomes solely a math problem but because we are reasonably deep and because we have such a nice stack now and there is no reason to take this high variance play unless you think you are totally out classed by most players here. Don't you think there's better spots to get your chips in? You certainly have time to wait around for one.

brucesmall said:

Yea after thinking about the hand I cane to the conclusion that if I had a bigger stack I make this move, he would have folded, he begrudgingly called 33k so double or not that he folds I'm sure..... I usually play a tight game in these spots(folded pocket 99s pre late in tournies and folded top pair with QJ on turn even given odds), but I really thought I could get the fold, he finished 12th I believe. The guy who finished 2nd I knocked out of the 100k the weekend before ... I really wish I folded I was zoned in and like you said found a better spot.

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even more of a reason to fold ,never shoving if you had a bigger stack , what if he's flatting AA KK.
IM with Sico also , find a better spot if you think you have an edge, you only have A high against 2 opponents , shoving is gambling which is fine if you think your out classed against rest of the field.

So what happen in the hand ?

Reads on the cold caller would clear this situation a lot . Since we have none we must treat this as an unknown and I would be looking for live reads, because this is close .
Next question I would be asking myself is Do I think I have an edge on most off the players in this tournament? If the answer was yes , I would be slightly leaning towards a fold without a live read .
We block AA and KK and I think most players are 3 betting KK .
We do have some fold equity as we are showing a lot off strength opening UTG and 4 bet shoving over the big stack . If the cold caller is flatting with a hand like 10 10 , he has a tough decision against a range off AK JJ + .

brucesmall said:

Okay so I got moved to a new table and third hand in utg I get AK suited diamonds. Blinds 400/800 50 ante, so I make it 2,250(I have about 53k), middle position player goes all in short of 20k( went all in two hands before this one). It folds to the big blind, he ask for a count and tanks for a moment, he flats the All in(he had about 85 to 90k to start)... I put him on 10s or JJ, I think for a moment and shove the rest of my stack. My thought here is the extra 33k over the top would make it difficult for him to call, which it did, he tanked for a few minutes.... Then called.

I'm just wondering if I should have folded knowing I'm behind to a pair or was the Pressure and shove the right play??

Click to expand...

I believe a fold here would be the right play. You have a good hand but you're going to need a lot of help on the flop with two other players in the pot. I don't have a problem with the short stack shoving with 20 BB, if I get a playable hand and with a short stack I will be looking to shove. You have a healthy stack and no reason not to let the bigger stack take the hit or take them out. Although your call in a three-way pot will reduce certain hand strength. If you could isolate the short stack then of course the right play is to shove.

This is a fold. At best you and the flat caller both have AK, and if the third player has a pair then you are drawing to 4 immediate outs to chop the pot

For example:
HERO- 5.83% to win, 32.31% to tie
BB- MP- 56.03% to win, .49% to tie

Even worse, if the BB has the pocket pair, he has you covered and unimproved you are out of the tournament