$11 NLHE MTT: Folding AA on the river.

D

D_godfather

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Two pair, sets, straights, flushes. In hindsight, do they have it? Would they bet smaller?

Comments welcome on other streets.


250/500 Ante 60 NL - Holdem - 9 players

Hero (MP+1): 33,951
MP+2: 19,784
CO: 32,253
BTN: 43,975
SB: 32,936
BB: 44,695
UTG: 24,760
UTG+1: 42,390
MP: 47,290

9 players post ante of 60, SB posts SB 250, BB posts BB 500

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,290) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,500, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (3,790, 2 players) 7 T K
BB checks, Hero bets 1,971, BB calls 1,971

Turn: (7,732, 2 players) 9
BB checks, Hero bets 3,000, BB raises to 8,650, Hero calls 5,650

River: (25,032, 2 players) 8
BB bets 32,514 and is all-in, fold

BB wins 25,032
 
royalburrito24

royalburrito24

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Pre flop side-note: with a 68bb stack, I open all my hands for 2.5bb. If everyone is deepstacked (125bb+) opening for 3bb seems right. Between 70-125bb, I tend to open for 2.75bb. This may just come down to preference, but the idea behind the sizing differences is that as stacks get smaller, a smaller raise will have the same effect as a 3bb raise when everyone is deep. In fact, a 3bb raise here may push out hands that you want to keep in (Ax, Kx, small pairs, etc).

Okay so as played, I think folding on the river here is the right play, unless you have a strong read on this player where they would overplay KQ (pretty much the only hand in their range you beat besides AQ).
Even then, this board connects superbly with villain’s range. Within their range you lose to any 2 diamonds, KJ, QJ, KT, K9, and 77-TT. Villain is not going to shove here without a straight or flush. No use calling off the rest of your stack and risking your tournament life with just an overpair on such a wet board. Another factor working against you is that you have 0 blockers for any of the strong made hands that villain is pushing with.
If the player was bluffing with complete air, risking 80% of their stack, then more power to them. They played it great because they KNOW AA must fold here, and hell they could even get sets and 2 pairs to fold here since every draw got there.
Take comfort in the fact that this is an incredibly risky and unnecessary bluff in tournament poker, and that many times you’ll show up in this spot with a straight or better and can stack off a donk who thinks they can outplay you.
 
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300HPGOD

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I agree that it is a fold on the river given the action. Unless you have a history with this villain or have seen a showdown hand where he has bluff raised I think you have to fold. Its a tough spot for sure with aces but you have to go with your gut as you did.

Something I noticed (I do this bet sizing a lot as well) is that you bet half pot on the flop and then bet around 40% on the turn. Wondering if villain saw this and saw an opportunity to bluff here as you shortened up on the turn? Like I said to take this bet sizing line myself often and feel it is correct but wondering if that had anything to do with it. Full disclosure that I do not play $11 buy ins and play smaller so I am used to seeing things that may not happen at the upper low stakes. Just a thought I had and wanted to throw it out there. I do think you played it well and made the correct decision on the river.
 
eetenor

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Two pair, sets, straights, flushes. In hindsight, do they have it? Would they bet smaller?

Comments welcome on other streets.


250/500 Ante 60 NL - Holdem - 9 players

Hero (MP+1): 33,951
MP+2: 19,784
CO: 32,253
BTN: 43,975
SB: 32,936
BB: 44,695
UTG: 24,760
UTG+1: 42,390
MP: 47,290

9 players post ante of 60, SB posts SB 250, BB posts BB 500

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,290) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,500, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (3,790, 2 players) 7 T K
BB checks, Hero bets 1,971, BB calls 1,971

Turn: (7,732, 2 players) 9
BB checks, Hero bets 3,000, BB raises to 8,650, Hero calls 5,650

River: (25,032, 2 players) 8
BB bets 32,514 and is all-in, fold

BB wins 25,032

Thank U 4 posting

You make a 3x raise pre with AA why?

If you know your V are loose then why would you bet small on the flop?

That is a very wet flop -flush draws- multiple straight draws -top pair hands -Pair plus flush draw -flush and straight draw -our V can have all of that and is going to fold all their misses to any size bet so we can bet big here.

Turn 9

Multiple straights just got there not just the very likely QJ but also Jd8d 8d6d etc Two pairs and sets are also very likely. The BB has enough chips to chase with all those hands.
10d9d is an easy call on the flop -check raise turn- with a redraw to the flush.
Stack preservation is as important as chip accumulation. So checking back ugly turns and then calling river bets when V is capable of making a bluff is a very strong strategy.

Is the BB skilled?
This turn card is a great check raise bluff card as well as value raise especially vs a player who tries to get 3 streets of value with AA on wet boards. Also a skilled V knows you do not have AdKd and if holding the Qd also knows you do not have AdQd

The QJ draw is so obvious it is a great bluff spot on the turn. The problem for us is the V can bluff most rivers and if they are skilled they know they have to and can.

That river shove could be a bluff in fact if the V is skilled and has a nut hand shoving seems the wrong play here. A smaller bet with nut hands is much more likely to be called often enough to be the more profitable play when V is holding the nuts. However V’s may know to use the shove with the nuts sizing, just not when it is best to do so. V could be shoving QdJd on the river not knowing you have almost no calling range in that spot after the turn action, for that sizing.

Hope this helps
:):)
 
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Sidetracked

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It could be argued that you might have found a fold on the turn. The most likely hands he'd be check raising with (straights) have you drawing dead. As played, definitely fold the river.
 
Evan Jarvis

Evan Jarvis

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Two pair, sets, straights, flushes. In hindsight, do they have it? Would they bet smaller?

Comments welcome on other streets.


250/500 Ante 60 NL - Holdem - 9 players

Hero (MP+1): 33,951
MP+2: 19,784
CO: 32,253
BTN: 43,975
SB: 32,936
BB: 44,695
UTG: 24,760
UTG+1: 42,390
MP: 47,290

9 players post ante of 60, SB posts SB 250, BB posts BB 500

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,290) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 1,500, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (3,790, 2 players) 7 T K
BB checks, Hero bets 1,971, BB calls 1,971

Turn: (7,732, 2 players) 9
BB checks, Hero bets 3,000, BB raises to 8,650, Hero calls 5,650

River: (25,032, 2 players) 8
BB bets 32,514 and is all-in, fold

BB wins 25,032

As played fold on the river seems totally fine.

To be honest I may even consider folding the turn to the raise here as the obvious drawc came in and he's giving you a very inviting check raise.

I like a slightly bigger bet on the flop given how many draws are out there and the fact that you can charge on pair nicely.

As played, I think you made a wise fold, good decision sir! :icon_stud
 
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