$11 NLHE MTT: 4h5h BTN, Villain (CO) Opened. Combo Draw on Turn, 2dQd3hQh. Jd River.Villain Checks

$11 NLHE MTT: 4h5h BTN, Villain (CO) Opened. Combo Draw on Turn, 2dQd3hQh. Jd River.Villain Checks

We missed our Combo Draw on River. Villain with 25% CO opening range, double-barreled on a two-tone, paired board but checked back to a 3rd suit scare card.

Can we bluff here profitably?


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $80(BB)
MP ($7500) [VPIP: 18.7% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 18.2% | 3-Bet: 6.3% | hands: 573]
HJ ($6666) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 6.2% | AGG: 17.1% | 3-Bet: 2.2% | Hands: 517]
CO ($9164) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 11% | AGG: 32.4% | 3-Bet: 2.2% | Hands: 240]
HERO ($8247) [VPIP: 22.7% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 28.8% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | Hands: 94386]
SB ($9589) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 16.9% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Hands: 393]
BB ($8007) [VPIP: 38.9% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 22.4% | 3-Bet: 5.1% | Hands: 162]
UTG ($7040) [VPIP: 14.7% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 15.5% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Hands: 1914]
EP ($7440) [VPIP: 17.8% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 26.6% | 3-Bet: 6.9% | Hands: 676]

Dealt to Hero: 5♥ 4♥

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $160, HERO Calls $160, SB Folds, BB Calls $80

Hero SPR on Flop: [15.09 effective]
Flop ($520): 2♦ Q♦ 3♥
BB Checks, CO Bets $260 (Rem. Stack: 8744), HERO Calls $260 (Rem. Stack: 7827), BB Folds

Turn ($1040): 2♦ Q♦ 3♥ Q♥
CO Bets $693 (Rem. Stack: 8051), HERO Calls $693 (Rem. Stack: 7134)

River ($2426): 2♦ Q♦ 3♥ Q♥ J♦
CO Checks,

I think we can bluff this river profitably but we need to understand almost any Queen is never folding here and that's ok. We are going to get called down sometimes but we will survive. Our opponent should never check a flush on this river, never check a boat and likely wouldn't be checking his strongest Qx either - when the obvious draws miss and we miss ours as well, it's easy for us to take the line and attempt to bluff this river - especially when checked to. I tend to go larger than 1k into 2.4k...that just invites some weird Jx or TT to call us light on the river. When we do bluff here it needs to be big, I would say 1.6k - 2k, some players may even overbet this spot and go 3k.

Point is when we are going to bluff we need to make the bet sizing appropriate so we can fold out 2and and middling pairs - the same way we go for max value with our strongest hands. Makes it hard to distinguish when we are bluffing and larger bets are certainly harder for the opponent to call.

The way you played it just calling pre-flop and check-calling the flop, basically says "I have a draw." Once the board pairs on the turn we should be slowing down a lot and folding most of the time here. 54 suited against a pre-flop raise can get us in a lot of trouble in this spot unless we flop big. Against a player who has a relatively low VPIP and PFR, that should let us know he has AT LEAST a Q.

TheDude6622 said:

Once the board pairs on the turn we should be slowing down a lot and folding most of the time here.

Click to expand...

I skipped the turn in my first analysis, but I kind of agree. Sure we picked up a flushdraw, so we have many outs now, but we also only have one card left, and we are facing a fairly large bet. We need around 30% equity to continue, and we only just have that against QX. Sometimes we can justify calling without correct pot odds, if we can factor in implied odds.

But that is questionable in this situation, because some percentage of the time a river card, which improve our hand, will give the opponent a full house or a better flush than ours. 4 of our outs is a A, and any A will give AQ a full house. Jh will give QJ a full house. And so on and so forth. Or he could already have a full house or quads, so that we are drawing dead. We are not drawing to the nuts here, and therefore the turn is probably a fold even with our additional outs, that we picked up.

Yes we should bluff here.
Opponent has given you incorrect pot odds to call to flash draw (he thought imo you are drawing to flush). Why he given up himself on the river? It was the last chance to earn EV, but he didin't want to take an opportunity, so He showed a weakness and here we have solid foundation to bluff.
How much you should betting? Polarisation (2400) or less what looks like value bet f.e. 1400 - 1600, the problem is, if you bet too small he never folded hands where he has showdown value. I like bluff here soo much.

Unless he knows you, you were played each other in the past and has some informations about your play on the river. Good luck!

Fromm what I have read ,I cant agree more[emoji108] totally great reading