$11 NLHE MTT: 100bbs deep facing 4B shove with QQ

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trent32la

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Had an interesting spot come up in the 3rd hand of an $11 satellite to the Nightly $109 on Carbon. No real reads on opponent and I don't recall any history with this opponent.

85853200-3 - Nightly $109 Sat [4 Seats, Turbo] (85848013-1)
Holdem Tournament No Limit Level 1 Blinds 15/30 Holdem Tournament
Wednesday 20 Jul 2016 2:31:19 PM
1: thecontrarian
2: AaRonZ32
3: trent32la (Dealer)
4: jeag1ephant
5: goatboi
6: GrindinJACK2
*** BLINDS ***
jeag1ephant Posts Small Blind 15
goatboi Posts Big Blind 30
*** PREFLOP ***
trent32la Hole Cards: Qc,Qh
GrindinJACK2 Folds
thecontrarian Raises 90
AaRonZ32 Folds
trent32la Raises 270
jeag1ephant Folds
goatboi Folds
thecontrarian went All In 2910
trent32la ????

Opponent opened 3bb from the HJ, I 3bet to 9bb on the button, opponent though for a few seconds and jammed 100bb. What is our play here with QQ?

Also before anyone mentions, "fold, you don't want to flip this early", I do not mind flipping here at all and trying to get a big stack early.
 
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WiZZiM

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i'm calling here because not that many good players will overjam in this spot, seems like a huge risk. Adding to that it's early in the tournament, typically you have a bunch of really bad plays so taking advantage early is a great idea in general. i call.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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i'm calling here because not that many good players will overjam in this spot, seems like a huge risk. Adding to that it's early in the tournament, typically you have a bunch of really bad plays so taking advantage early is a great idea in general. i call.

I agree. it's certainly possible he has AA or KK but also sometimes people will just flat or make a smaller 4bet with those to get more value. especially with AA. given that there are 6 combos of AA and 6 combos of KK I would guess that maybe only 2 combos of AA would jam on you here, and maybe 3-4 combos of KK would jam.

QQ might jam because they're a little afraid, but there is only 1 combo of QQ left.

AK- there are 16 combos and some people way overplay AK. I can definitely see the villain having AK here. maybe 12 combos worth.

AQ or Ax- seems like suicide and there's only 8 combos left of AQ but there are lots of bad players still alive early in tourneys so maybe give him 1-2 combos of AQ and worse Aces.

mid pocket pairs: say 88-JJ there are a total of 30 combos of these hands and while I don't think its good to 4bet jam 100bbs with these, some bad players will do it. let's assign a total of 10 combos of the smaller pairs

small pocket pairs: 22-77. there are 36 combos. again, I think this is even a stupider play than the mid pocket pairs, but still plenty of bad players. let's assign maybe 6 of the 36 combos of small pocket pairs.

random bluff: some people will 4bet jam with hands like 78s hoping to pick up the dead money every time you are bluffing, hoping to re-bluff you everytime you have a medium hand like AQ or TT and figuring that even if you have a premium hand the suited connectors do OK vs. premium hands and like you, they may just be willing to get it in early and try to build a big stack. It's not a huge likelihood but I'd guess it could be maybe 2-3 combos of suited connectors/random bluffs

so....we're up to about 5-6 combos that crush you
12 combos that you're flipping with
and 19-21 combos that you crush

from what I've seen in the early stages of online tourneys this seems roughly correct. you're not HAPPY to get it in, but I think with the money already in the pot from your 3bet even flipping isn't too bad. I tink if it's a live tourney with a bigger buy in (like $500+) random villain's range would be much more heavily weighted towards premiums and a few bluffs (far fewer mid pocket pairs) and you can at least consider a fold. but online I think you just gotta go with it and fire up another tourney if you get coolered or get unlucky.
 
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