$109 NLHE MTT Bounty: KQo decision for tournament life

109 Summer Series Sunday Million Bounty Builder. In the money(approx. 600/18000 left).

I don't usually play those stakes but got into this tourney through a satellite. Also I don't have solvers or hrc to analyse this properly.

In game this turn min raise from a 15/9 SB(50 hands sample) looked super nutty like he didn't want me to check back on the river, but when I look at it now I think it was a clear call since everything bricked. What do you think? Can someone with a solver or hrc plug this in?
pokerstars, $100 + $9 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 23,580 (12 bb)
UTG + 1: 24,056 (12 bb)
MP (Hero): 77,957 (39 bb)
MP+1: 31,280 (16 bb)
LP: 66,657 (33 bb)
CO: 64.639 (32 bb)
BU: 95,246 (48 bb)
SB: 80,064 (40 bb)
BB: 26,414 (13 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,800) Hero is MP with K♣ Q♦
2 players fold, Hero raises to 4,400, 3 players fold, BTN calls 4,400, SB calls 3,400, 1 fold

Flop: (17,000) T♣ Q♠ 2♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 6,000, BU folds, SB calls 6,000

Turn: (29,000) 6♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 16,000, SB raises to 32,000, Hero calls 16,000

River: (93,000) 7♥ (2 players)
SB bets 37,464 (all-in), MP (Hero) folds

Total pot: 93,000
SB wins 93,000

preflop and flop game is good. But on the turn I rather go check and call his bet on the river.
In the preflop He has very good Pot odds to call almost everything good combinations, small connectors, suited kings, small pocket pair.
And I think he had 22 and hit o triple on the flop.
if we imagine about what he thinking: he see you have you raise 2.2x from MP(high cards or 88+), see you have you bet 3x on flop and he call you, see have you bet 4x on turn and he min3bet you. In my opinion he think you hit some top pair with Q and he know that he beat you if you have just top pair so he decided go min3bet you beacuse he know that you don´t fold top pair.

So imo i do not bet on turn.

I think you're going to get shown 22 and QTs a lot, but as played you have to call the river. You're getting great odds; you beat a bluff; and it's a bounty builder. Draws have missed like you pointed out.

50 hands is a pretty small sample, but particularly if you have a larger sample and your opponent has tight/passive stats, then we can fold to the turn min-raise. Generally though, if we call this raise against any opponent type, we have to call off at a river blank.

You say he's a 15/9, but how much did he defend in SB? What is him 3bet percentage? Cbet fold? go to the showdown? Was he a regular or a recreational?

I think a slightly higher bet on the flop would have allowed you to know better where you were. You'd be amazed at the absurd hands the regs float in those tournaments when you bet 1/3 on the flop

I generally tend to get a little nervous, when a tight player call out of SB, because so often they are setming. So if they call my flop C-bet, I often prefer to pot control and check back turn with one pair. I also think, his turn sizing is a huge red flag. If he wanted you to fold, why did he not move all in, when there was less than a pot sized bet left? This scream like a "please call me down with top pair" type of line. Folding the river after calling turn is the worst option though. With so little behind you need to make up your mind on the turn, if you are going with the hand or not.

He's bluffing on the river...
You raised it just under two and half times the BB from MP you could have any A K or Q and some Js in your range, some pocket pairs 88+. Villain has a good pot odds to call pre and he know all that stuff. i don't think that he could be traping with AA or KK cause there's two player involved and the BB is getting good odds to call. He could have any Axs, some Kings K9 KT KJ or 55+.
When you bet the flop and he called. I don't think he has 55s to 99s here, it's an easy fold for him and you could have AQ in your range. he called with All the Ts, Ks, Js ... JTs, KJs, KTs, ATs...
The turn bringed the flush draw, you have to consider this, either for you or for him.
So when you bet the turn actually it's a Queen or better that you have, and when he min raised you, you have two options here: FOLD/JAM, we don't call the turn to fold the river when pot committed.
I would prefer the agg line and JAM here cause you'll putting more pressure on him, either you have a pair with a flush draw or better QQ/TT. cause when you just calling you're telling him that you're weak.
In the Turn we could narrow his range to KJ of spade or Ax of spade.
The river is a check call if i was you. with no flush and a brick that could'nt helped you both, it's clear that he would made this move if he misses his draw.
That's my tought during this hand with no prior reads on villain, i could be wrong.
Hopefully i bringed some help. GL

Hello, I think you played very well until the turn, the flop was very dry, so there was no need to make a very strong cbet.

When he mini-raises you on the turn, you must stop for a few seconds, and see the pot on the flop, you should have thought that if you call, on the river you would have SPR of 0, and you would have to call on any river .
If you were planning to fold on the river, it would have been better to fold on the turn and save a few chips.

Collin Moshman said:

I think you're going to get shown 22 and QTs a lot, but as played you have to call the river. You're getting great odds; you beat a bluff; and it's a bounty builder. Draws have missed like you pointed out.

50 hands is a pretty small sample, but particularly if you have a larger sample and your opponent has tight/passive stats, then we can fold to the turn min-raise. Generally though, if we call this raise against any opponent type, we have to call off at a river blank.

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I agree that as played the hero should call the river.But I dont see any bluffs when sb check/raising vs such turn bet size. Generally I see the mistake when hero double barrel such hand KQo ,It s easy turn check and potencial thin value river bet.But as I understand we can even check/call flop with this hand because of multipot.

Your decision is on the turn. Once you call turn it becomes must call on the river.

refinjo said:

everything bricked.

Click to expand...

Collin Moshman said:

Draws have missed like you pointed out.

Click to expand...

what about 98? 98s would certainly be in the range, and more likely than QT. In particular would seem to fit the betting pattern well, although I don't want to get fixed on one hand, not all draws missed that's for sure.

In general the turn seems good for SB range and bad for yours, so could just be a bluff check raise here, setting up for his river jam and you folding.

Thanks to everyone. I agree for the turn check and also river call. Definitely a bad play

refinjo said:

109 Summer Series Sunday Million Bounty Builder. In the money(approx. 600/18000 left).

I don't usually play those stakes but got into this tourney through a satellite. Also I don't have solvers or hrc to analyse this properly.

In game this turn min raise from a 15/9 SB(50 hands sample) looked super nutty like he didn't want me to check back on the river, but when I look at it now I think it was a clear call since everything bricked. What do you think? Can someone with a solver or hrc plug this in?
PokerStars, $100 + $9 - Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 23,580 (12 bb)
UTG + 1: 24,056 (12 bb)
MP (Hero): 77,957 (39 bb)
MP+1: 31,280 (16 bb)
LP: 66,657 (33 bb)
CO: 64.639 (32 bb)
BU: 95,246 (48 bb)
SB: 80,064 (40 bb)
BB: 26,414 (13 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,800) Hero is MP with K♣ Q♦
2 players fold, Hero raises to 4,400, 3 players fold, BTN calls 4,400, SB calls 3,400, 1 fold

Flop: (17,000) T♣ Q♠ 2♥ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 6,000, BU folds, SB calls 6,000

Turn: (29,000) 6♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 16,000, SB raises to 32,000, Hero calls 16,000

River: (93,000) 7♥ (2 players)
SB bets 37,464 (all-in), MP (Hero) folds

Total pot: 93,000
SB wins 93,000

Click to expand...

Hello,

I think you played well I'd say he had a set and the check raise on the turn was protection from the flush draw. Well played

Wow.. and again.. learning so much just from how players analise hands and the break down of everything.. time for me to hit a few tutorials

wtf was that.
I literally spat my coffee all over my computer when you folded
that was a bad fold hands down
idc if he has a set 50% of the time
you were committed and most likely the winner
he coulda had 10s Ks second pair flush draw most likely
missed the draw after reraising the turn and shoves because.....
well apparently your fold equity worked out well for the villian.

I'd never ever ever fold there
and id ALWAYS shove the turn there 100%
that way he cant check fold his missed draw on the river
or bluff me on that river

if he had AQ he woulda shoved preflop
if he had a set of 2's he would have at least min raised you on the flop with q 10 showing and you leading out.
So no he didn't have a set
he didn't have 9s8s either as that hand would have shoved all in on the turn... instead of min raising
it was probably in my opinion As10s, js 10s
he didnt have you outkicked
He didn't beat you,
you beat yourself