$100 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $ NLHE MTT: Live tournament. should I turn this into a bluff on the river?

$100 NLHE MTT Rebuy: $ NLHE MTT: Live tournament. should I turn this into a bluff on the river?

Action 9 handed: 17 players left after the rebuy period on a 27 player field (25 rebuys, 19 addons)

Blinds: 2K/1k ante 200

UTG~ 15 BB
UTG+1 ~40 BB
UTG+2 ~20 BB
MP1 ~35 BB
HJ ~25 BB
CO ~75 BB
Hero (BU) ~60 BB
SB ~20 BB
Villain (BB) ~50 BB

Action:
UTG calls BB
UTG+1 calls BB
MP1, HJ, CO folds
BU looks at JcTd, calls BB
SB folds
BB checks.

POT: 4.4 BB
Flop:
Board: 7c, 9h, Js

Villain (BB) leads around 2.5 BBs
UTG, UTG+1 folds
Hero (BU) calls

POT: 9.4 BB
Turn: Qs
Board: 7c, 9h, Js, Qs

Villain (BB) checks
Hero (BU) checks

River: Ah
Board: 7c, 9h, Js, Qs, Ah

Villain (BB) checks
Hero (BU): ???

Info on the limpers: older gamblers on the loose passive side. UTG, if tracked would show something like VPIP ~85% AFq 0,2% (limp/caller for life). UTG+1 has more of a selected range and some solid post-flop skill, but still overly loose passive pre flop.

Info on the villain: he's a reg and on the good laggier side. He doesn't hesitate in turning the intermediate/bottom parte of his range into bluffs if he thinks he can't win at showdown. He's also tricky and doesn't shy away from gangsta bluffs. What types of hands he bets the flop and check all the way to the river to the button action?

I don't think he does this without marginal/good value. I doubt is: are my jacks with medium kicker good enough here to go to showdown or should I start turning this hand into a bluff? (having the JT in my hand is quite important for effects of card removal: I both block the nuttish hands he can have to slowplay (KT, T8), I block one of the OESD he could bet the flop and find showdown value on turn (QT), block a few two pair combos (J9, QJ, J7), but I also block the part of his flop value bet range that I beat (worse jacks, T9).

I'm feeling a bit that I'm beat in the spot. Should I bluff this? I also pondered raising for value on the flop (top pair+gutshot), would this be a good play?

i dont like the limp pre, I would either fold or raise pre, but Im leaning a little more towards the fold. as played, calling flop i like, id probably just check back the river and go to show down. the purpose of a bluff is to get better hands to fold. does villain ever fold a pair of queens or a pair of aces here when we arent representing anything better?

mbrenneman0 said:

i dont like the limp pre, I would either fold or raise pre, but Im leaning a little more towards the fold. as played, calling flop i like, id probably just check back the river and go to show down. the purpose of a bluff is to get better hands to fold. does villain ever fold a pair of queens or a pair of aces here when we arent representing anything better?

Click to expand...

Given the antes in play and a decent hand to play in position multi-ways, I decided to limp on a very good 1-4.4 price to play in position against two weaker opponents on lower SPR, specially against UTG's stack size (15 BBs), against whom I have very little to none fold equity pre, and I can stack off her on a wide variety of run outs (if she had a hand say, 98, on this board, I'm sure she'd go to distance with it).

I think I could turn this river into a bluff mainly because I got a few two pairs (QJ, J9), sets (77, 99) and also have blockers to the best hands possible (T8, KT), and I think given the hand played out, villain's got some weaker two pair combos like 97, J7, and could bluff villain out of some chops (JT).

What do you think? Given reasons above and additional info, could you get behind:
1) limp behind pre?
2) a polarizing overbet bluff river to try to rep sets, straights, QJ? (like say, 16 BB bet)

I agree that the price is good, but JTo just doesnt play well multiway in a 4 way pot. you get into these weird situations where you have no idea where you are in the hand. If youre going to play the hand, id rather see a raise pre to 4 or 5 big blinds to isolate. the reason i lean towards a fold is because of the awkward stack depths that if UTG has half a clue about poker should rejam about half the time because if you raise and get rejammed you have to call, but if you limp you go into a flop with a hand that really plays poorly multiway against 3 very wide ranges.

and youre not really representing anything by betting the river because almost everythibg youre trying to represent here would have raised pre for sure. wouldnt you have raised QJ pre?

If you have Small Ax suited in your overlimping range then a river bluff might get him off Jx or Qx, but you'd want to know that he is capable of making that laydown before you try it. It sounds like from your description of him that KJ is the type of marginal hand he could stuff back in your face for a bluff though, so its risky and definitely dependent on your opponents style.

Fair assessments. Thanks guys.

Why not raise turn? you have mid pair + OESD or bet river, even though you are turning your hand into a bluff. i could see villian folding river here to decent bet