$.10 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Tricky river spot on FT

5 players remain out of ~600, tourney has been running for 7 hours and table has loosened up as of late (some stats greatly misrepresent current ranges)

Notes are in blue italics

Pay Structure

1st $18.9
2nd $13.85
3rd $10.2
4th $7.7
5th $5.4

Winning Poker Network - 4,000/8,000 NL - Holdem - 5 players

BTN: 419,650.00 (VP 19 / PR 12 / 3B 2) Still playing tight
SB: 252,790.00 (VP 36 / PR 8 / 3B 0) Loose/passive
BB: 327,849.00 (VP 23 / PR 14 / 3B 4) Loose lately
UTG: 226,689.00 (VP 26 / PR 14 / 3B 3) Loose, aggressive PF lately
Hero (CO): 328,022.00 (VP 19 / PR 14 / 3B 6) This guy might be a noob

SB posts ante 800.00, BB posts ante 800.00, UTG posts ante 800.00, Hero posts ante 800.00, BTN posts ante 800.00, SB posts SB 4,000.00, BB posts BB 8,000.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 16000.00) Hero has 3♦ A♥

UTG raises to 24,000.00,

UTG has been opening wide lately and chasing many draws; SB will call with ATC and BB will usually defend here so I'm unable to fold an ace here (great pot odds). If I 3B, at least 1 will call and I won't have any read on where I'm at when they check to me.

Hero calls 24,000.00, fold, SB calls 20,000.00, BB calls 16,000.00

Flop: (100000.00, 4 players) T♦ A♠ J♦
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks,

When UTG checks, it tells me that he does not have an ace or a flush draw. Possibly ISD (K or Q) or backdoor flush draw.

Hero bets 33,334.00, SB calls 33,334.00, fold, UTG calls 33,334.00

SB will call just about anything here, if turn checks down he will take a stab on river usually. If UTG had a stronger hand than I put him on, he would re-raise me here, so far so good.

Turn: (200002.00, 3 players) 6♦
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 66,668.00,

Here I try to fold out Vil before they make a 4-flush or broadway by repping these hands myself. I have a tight table image still, and my bet should get thru.

fold, UTG calls 66,668.00

When Villain calls, I still think I'm ahead (he's probably chasing a draw and has air ATM) but plan on checking back the river for pot control.

River: (333338.00, 2 players) 8♠
UTG bets 101,887.00 and is all-in, Hero

River doesn't really change anything: Aces+/Broadway/Flush would have re-raised earlier, the board doesn't pair, so now I'm thinking rivered straight or missed draw bluff... Only hands that make straight (besides KQ, which I've ruled out by their play) are 79 or 9Q, neither of which should have been PFR :dontknow:

Did I misread my opponent the entire way? Am I running TPBK into a flopped broadway that turned into a flush?

If I fold now I still have 25 BB, if I call and win I'll have 80, if I call and lose I'll have 12 :joyman:

Eeek, call me a nit but I just fold pre and pick a better spot.

:dito:

jordanbillie said:

Eeek, call me a nit but I just fold pre and pick a better spot.

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Villain has opened several hands in a row as the table loosened up, and with the blinds being as loose as they are I think I am priced in to call here. Appreciate your input regardless :top:

BluffMeAllIn said:

:dito:

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No offense, but your post goes against the HA rules

slycbnew said:

7. Do NOT post in HA for the sake of posting. If you're commenting in a thread, try to have something to contribute, whether it's proposing a solution, an amplification of a point someone else has already made, or a question about the analysis. "Ditto" for the sake of a post is incredibly annoying.

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How exactly are you "priced in" to call he has opened 4x which is a huge open and you only have 800 in the pot from your ante?

Well I had added a blurb to it but was basically rambling on useless info that basically went back to the fact that you were just value towning yourself by playing the A3 in that spot especially on that board.

BluffMeAllIn said:

How exactly are you "priced in" to call he has opened 4x which is a huge open and you only have 800 in the pot from your ante?

Well I had added a blurb to it but was basically rambling on useless info that basically went back to the fact that you were just value towning yourself by playing the A3 in that spot especially on that board.

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Like I said, Villain has been opened several hands in a row- probably taking advantage of the fact that there are 2 tight players who will (almost) always fold and 2 loose players who will always call and then fold on the flop or turn. He opened for 3x (not 4x) and at least 1 blind will call, meaning it will cost me 3BB to get into a pot of at least 11.5BB, nearly 4:1 (both blinds called, so it was slightly more than 4:1). I've had plenty of time to watch all the remaining players (been on FT for over an hour) and I'm confident in my reads.

On the flop, any ace or 1 card flush draw would re-raise me (based on past actions) so the 2 calls do not scare me at all (villain is probably chasing, SB will call with ATC as stated in OP)

As far as the rambling, throw it in here! It might be more useful than you think :beer:

Edit: I forget to mention that I'm 99% sure I will not face a 3B and that I have position here

Bob23bk said:

Villain has opened several hands in a row as the table loosened up, and with the blinds being as loose as they are I think I am priced in to call here. Appreciate your input regardless :top:

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I just think that if the blinds are as loose as you say they are, make them pay when you have a better hand. In the mean time, fold hands like A3 o/s and coast into a top 3 finish.

Maybe I was being impatient jordanbillie, I didn't expect the tourney to last that long and it was very late. Regardless I think my play was decent here, and I may disagree with you... May*, because you bring up a good point. But that's why I'm here right?

Bob23bk said:

Maybe I was being impatient jordanbillie, I didn't expect the tourney to last that long and it was very late. Regardless I think my play was decent here, and I may disagree with you... May*, because you bring up a good point. But that's why I'm here right?

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Of course, and the wonderful thing about poker is that you can't generalize and say, "This is the way that hand should always be played!" It sounds like you made the decision to play the hand the way you did, based on the information at hand. Deciding to play A3 in that spot is not a glaring error, but my decision with the information you provided would be to fold preflop. Now, I also want to say that I don't claim to have all the answers, nor do I think that my analysis is the only option. I am also here to learn and become a better player.

Cheers!

Oops yeah 3x, obv my brain isn't working for math today (although I would still consider this a large raise at this stage of the tourney, but as you had been playing perhaps it was his standard raise) .... point still stands though you can't really assume what anyone behind you is going to do when considering pot odds because its based on the money in the pot right now not what will be in there IF the other two players call when there is still the chance they could raise.

I mean I guess a KJ/KT/QJ/QT type hand could play the flop this way that you beat but i don't expect any of those hands to call on the turn so the turn bet is typically only getting called by better and obv you have to call the river given you think your ahead on the flop and nothing really changes as i'd expect a turned flush to reshove most of the time.

Either way a great run to hit FT in that donkfest mtt lol

BluffMeAllIn said:

Oops yeah 3x, obv my brain isn't working for math today (although I would still consider this a large raise at this stage of the tourney, but as you had been playing perhaps it was his standard raise) .... point still stands though you can't really assume what anyone behind you is going to do when considering pot odds because its based on the money in the pot right now not what will be in there IF the other two players call when there is still the chance they could raise.

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My pot odds weren't based on 2 other players calling, I was basing it on the SB calling and the BB folding... SB calling is VERY likely, as he's at 36VP It's also extremely unlikely that anyone 3B, the 3B stat for the 3 players left to act are 2, 0, and 4% so this isn't an issue. In a vacuum, my pot odds were of course incorrect! In this instance however, where we know player tendencies, I think we would be doing ourselves a disservice by not calculating this way- just the same as we would by assuming a short stack wouldn't widen his range. (Do you follow or am I speaking gibberish here, I know you're intelligent, I think I'm explaining terribly :rofl

BluffMeAllIn said:

Either way a great run to hit FT in that donkfest mtt lol

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Thanks, the best part was that I late reg'd in with 10BB I know this sounds stupid as well, but the field is pretty soft and the overlay ended up being just under 40% :icon_sant

Bob23bk...I totally follow your train of thought about your pot odds, their low 3bet % etc. but I still disagree that you are "priced in" to call in this spot. I think you'd be better off calling with a hand like 34s than A3o. I don't think it's WRONG to call with A3o....I just think it's highly optional. I would probably pass, but given your read I'd happily call with hands like 75s or 98o. Anyways; if calling with A3o is a leak, it is a small leak provided that you are a good enough post flop player....which is a nice segue into the post flop analysis:

Flop: 4 handed with top pair no kicker on a very draw heavy, dangerous board is a "YIKES" kind of situation. you're going to have to carefully avoid some landmines. I'm assuming you realize there are tons of hands that could own you on this flop such as 2pair, straights and monster combo draws, and 1 pair with a draw type hands....all of which are crushing you or flipping with you (hence why I wouldn't want to play A3o in a multiway pot). So, I don't exactly mind the flop bet but it's really dangerous. You're going to need to pot control somewhere in this hand. You do not have a 3 streets of value type of hand. So, if you bet this flop you'll probably need to check back the turn. or you can check the flop and bet the turn but if you reach the river with 3 rounds of betting you're beat like 90% of the time. If you bet the flop for the reason of thinning the field and gaining some info that's OK, but hopefully you would fold to any raise on this flop. nobody raised, so that's good for us. 2 people called, so that's BAD for us. After I bet this flop and get 2 callers I'm assuming I'm already beat in at least 1 spot. Most likely I'm beat by 1 player and facing a draw.

Turn: I'm now basically done with this hand once I see the flush draw complete. did they call me with a worse ace? hahaha; pretty hard to do. did they call me with a draw? well....it probably just got there. did they call me with 2 pair....well then I'm still losing. I realize that you THINK you're betting the turn to "rep" the flush or broadway....so does that mean you're trying to bluff into 2 opponents here? If you are aware that you are bluffing, and then your "bluff" gets called then it's time to abort mission. I think your turn bet is spewy and you should check back here 100% of the time.

River: FOLD. our turn bet was basically a bluff as I cannot perceive any worse hand calling us. bluffs are always over once your opponent jams on you.

On the flop, any ace or 1 card flush draw would re-raise me (based on past actions) so the 2 calls do not scare me at all (villain is probably chasing, SB will call with ATC as stated in OP)

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also, I'm not really sure why you are so positive UTG can't have a flush draw when you gave him proper odds to draw at his flush. yes, maybe sometimes he would bet or jam his flush draw on the flop....but then you gave him a nice price; so he could very easily have a flush draw (in fact, that's what I would assume he has once he calls my turn bet).

what you've viewed of players based on past actions should only help to inform your range analysis....it doesn't put a concrete limit on their hand possibilities. it is very dangerous to assume players always play their hands the same way. predictability is suicide in this game and most decent players know they should vary their play. saying "I KNOW he doesn't have a flush because he WOULD HAVE raised with it" is actually underestimating your opponent and thinking his entire game can fit nicely into a box, with a lid.

RESULTS


Thanks for the detailed analysis missjacki :congrats:

missjacki said:

You're going to need to pot control somewhere in this hand. You do not have a 3 streets of value type of hand. So, if you bet this flop you'll probably need to check back the turn. or you can check the flop and bet the turn but if you reach the river with 3 rounds of betting you're beat like 90% of the time.

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Once my turn bet was called, I planned to check back the river. Villain bet into me, so it wasn't a very good pot control plan I guess :stupid:

missjacki said:

If you are aware that you are bluffing, and then your "bluff" gets called then it's time to abort mission. I think your turn bet is spewy and you should check back here 100% of the time.

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I was trying to rep a stronger hand than I had, but I did think I was still ahead... I'd call it a semi-bluff, and given past hands I figured it would get through. Looking back I probably should have checked, thanks for that :deal:

missjacki said:

predictability is suicide in this game and most decent players know they should vary their play. saying "I KNOW he doesn't have a flush because he WOULD HAVE raised with it" is actually underestimating your opponent and thinking his entire game can fit nicely into a box, with a lid.

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This player was being extra predictable, but I'll try to keep it in mind!

missjacki said:

River: FOLD

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Bluff voted Call here so it's 1-1. Thanks for answering my main question you guys! :top:

Would still like to hear what others think about the river (call or fold), though votes might be skewed now :dontknow:

pre is pretty iffy, it's a pretty bad hand to play postflop, i'd much rather something like 76s here tbh.

postflop i would definitely check back the turn, we have a very vulnerable hand and people will not fold flush draws at this point. So i'd be looking to get to a very cheap showdown, if someone has an ace we're at best splitting, if they have a draw we miss value by not betting and we also don't protect our hand, but it's such a weak hand considering this is a wet board and it's a multiway pot.

if the UTG player has been loose, then the better option preflop imo would be to just forget we have Ax and 3bet him pre, sends him a pretty clear message his preflop raising won't fly here and it's also a much easier way to play a profitable spot than to take a relatively weak reverse implied odds type hand postflop.

Just to clarify, the biggest thing you are missing here is that you are not priced into this pot, because you have nothing invested. Even if you know the blinds will call, our hand does not play that well post, and it has a lot of a reverse implied odds feel to it. Like we're basically not happy with any flop, including this one, any Axx flop we will be generall playing pretty slow and keeping the pot small, so theres no value in it, and we check/fold that many flops post it's just a losing play in general imo.

as played i would just fold the river, such a weird line for villian, but the 8 completes some combos, but it seems like a pretty classic slowplay spot to me.. but i wouldn't have bet the turn, so i would be likely facing a bluff catching type 60k bet on the river which i would quickly call.

Nice input, thanks WiZZiM! :top:

Getting different takes on it really helps to paint the bigger picture, you guys are awesome :beer:

You still got playable stack,fold pre.