$1 NLHE STT Turbo: shoving with QJ after the bubble

Hello, I don't whether this move would be profitable in the long run.
I have been moved to another table therefore I don't have good reads. 12 players left. bubble had burst 10-15 hands ago.


Table '1202587735 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: teixeira_pir (17505 in chips)
Seat 2: tonybardio (7717 in chips)
Seat 4: goodingx (22893 in chips)
Seat 5: limakpl (8800 in chips)
Seat 6: Hakar80 (10076 in chips)
Seat 9: hatzinicash (10404 in chips)

I have created pretty tight image folded for 10 hand in a row, but at this level I don't think it matters that much.

So, table overall is tight and afraid of losing their stacks. small open bet sizes and no fancy play postflop with many folds(probably due to stack sizes and being afraid).


Blinds 400/800 (75)
UTG folds
MP: Hero QJo shoves for 8725 ( almost 11bb)
(pot before the shove 1650, after the shove 10375)
4 players left to decide.
I assume each of them would call me with 88+ A8+ KJ KQ QJ
Using pokerstove, I have 34% equity against this calling range.

I'm shoving from MP so it also looks stronger than it is.

What do you think about this move ?

Thanks for advice.

Very close shove, but when ITM need only fold because if you get call, QJo will be always far behind vs calling range.

If your table description is correct, then you should have more fold equity than usual at a table like this, and so this should be a good shove.

But, if you're correct about their calling ranges, then they would each call you with a top 14% hand and that's actually a REALLY wide calling range (IMO) making this a bad shove. It seems to me your table description is at odds with your expected calling ranges. And we can't live in both worlds. Which one is it? I'll solve for both below.


****************************************************************************************************************here comes a bunch of math

with 4 people left to act and each will fold 86% of the time (calling 14% of the time) that means 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.86 x 0.86 = 0.54 or 54% of the time everybody folds.

so you win the blinds and antes (1,650) 54% of the time = +891

and when you get called you have about 34% equity vs. that range meaning you lose your whole stack (8,800) 66% of the time= -5,808
and you win (8,800+ 1,650= 10,450) 34% of the time +3,553
so the times you get called the play is -2,255 but you only get called a total of 46% of the time so -2,255 x .46= -1,037.3

so the total +EV of the shove is +891 when they all fold and -1,037 when you get called for a total loss of -146 chips. So not a good shove ASSUMING you are correct about their calling ranges.

My instinct though, when I read the hand with your table read was that this IS a marginally good shove because I think you are greatly overestimating their calling ranges, IMHO. I think a typical calling range would be something like 88+ and AJ+ which is more like a 7% calling range. You actually do worse against a range like this when called (30% equity) but your fold equity goes way up.

with 4 people left to act, only calling 7% of the time each that means they will fold 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.93 x 0.93 = .74 so 74% of the time they will all fold preflop. so now your fold equity increases to 1,650 x .74 = +1,221

and you'll do worse when called, but you'll get called way less often.

when you get called and lose it is -8800 x.7 =-6,160
when you get called and win it is 10,400 x .3 =+ 3120
for a total of -3,040 when called, but that only happens 26% of the time so 3,040 x .26= -790.

so FE is 1,221 and showdown equity is -790 for a total profit on the shove of +431.

*********************************************************************************************************************end of math section!


I know that is a lot of math to read, but it really shows you how much their calling ranges affect equations like this. You describe them as tight and afraid to lose chips, so I think the 2nd scenario is more likely. You can plug other calling ranges into those equations to find out just how tight/loose players have to be before a shove like this is profitable.

I am a fan of exploiting nitty tables so I don't mind the shove.

Note that before the bubble bursts this shove is WAAAAAY more profitable (like almost mandatory). After the bubble bursts sometimes the short stacks feel like they already "won" and now all of a sudden they remember they're in a gambling event. Since the table short stack is in the BB I kind of think he will call pretty wide.

missjacki thanks for the math and your time spent. I know now what I'll do in simillar situation. THANKS a lot, and at the low level that I play this calling range of about 14% is tight. especially after bubble.

missjacki said:

But, if you're correct about their calling ranges, then they would each call you with a top 14% hand and that's actually a REALLY wide calling range (IMO)....

Click to expand...

Give that girl a hug

To OP: 14% calling range+ right after the bubble - a lot of good reason to think it is good fold pre, some of people argue but i do not care. On stars (assuming) it is like donk festival after the bubble when folk feel that they have made mega fortune (not really).

But yea, it is a close one.

based on given info - hope did not made any calculation mistakes. If hero decide to shove!

Ambur said:

based on given info - hope did not made any calculation mistakes. If hero decide to shove!

Click to expand...

can you please explain to me how to read that graph? Is the horizontal axis how often they all fold?

horizontal should be our hand equity vs 14% calling range!

For example if our hand has 50% equity vs villains 14% calling range we can expect to have over t1k$ tourney chips profit overall if hero shove preflop!

But this OP we have equity 34% vs villains 14% calling range!

For me it is little bit suprising, that even if hero has 75% equity vs villains calling range - hero gain only t3500 chips overall!

Ambur said:

horizontal should be our hand equity vs 14% calling range!

For example if our hand has 50% equity vs villains 14% calling range we can expect to have over t1k$ tourney chips profit overall if hero shove preflop!

But this OP we have equity 34% vs villains 14% calling range!

For me it is little bit suprising, that even if hero has 75% equity vs villains calling range - hero gain only t3500 chips overall!

Click to expand...

got it thanks. I'm not actually surprised by the results. +3,500 chips is acutally really good for the situation (his whole stack is only 8,800). Any move where the +EV represents an increase to your total stack of more than a third is actually a hugely profitable play. I mean there are no "lock" situations in poker, even AA all in preflop is usually only 80% equity. Which is hugely +EV, but far from a lock.

So does this graph take into account the fold equity?

missjacki said:

got it thanks. I'm not actually surprised by the results. +3,500 chips is acutally really good for the situation (his whole stack is only 8,800). Any move where the +EV represents an increase to your total stack of more than a third is actually a hugely profitable play. I mean there are no "lock" situations in poker, even AA all in preflop is usually only 80% equity. Which is hugely +EV, but far from a lock.

So does this graph take into account the fold equity?

Click to expand...

This graph does takes all account, which you wrote first post on this thread assuming that villains calling range is 14% (this is constant)! Only thing which changing is horizontal line our hand equity, so people could play the ranges and see which hands shove is profitable vs 14% calling range overall in this particular situation!

cool graph. so basically 35% equity is the break even point. so you can shove with like (gut feeling now, just from my mind's eye) KTs or KJo and be roughly 38-40% vs. their calling range which makes those types of hands a barely profitable shove.

With 11bb left to play normally my shoving range would be at least 66+/KQs+ and A10o+.

missjacki said:

cool graph. so basically 35% equity is the break even point. so you can shove with like (gut feeling now, just from my mind's eye) KTs or KJo and be roughly 38-40% vs. their calling range which makes those types of hands a barely profitable shove.

Click to expand...

~36% is break even point.

this type of spot is what programs like SNG wizard or ICMizer were designed for....

But it seems like a pretty clear fold imo. Were near last place, but realistically we're tied last with 4 other players and we have two stacks which are clear 1st and 2nd place chip counts. so we're in no real desperation to make chips in this spot, so shoving loose in spots like this is generally not the greatest idea.

I would fold and look for another spot.

There are still many left for me to pass (4) and chances are, one might get a good hand and call. If it does, I would be underdog going for showdown.

With ante in play agressive play is asked for. So jamming is with a stack clear below average is ok as you have to double up anyway. Therefor 2 overcards is a good chance of course.