$1 NLHE STT: SNG 1/180 - What Is My Move Here?

PokerStars - 300/600 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 15.04 BB (VPIP: 11.54, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 27)
BB: 17.86 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG: 91.79 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 33)
UTG+1: 21.37 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 52)
MP: 19.55 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP+1): 33.2 BB
CO: 10.76 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
BTN: 36.84 BB (VPIP: 13.27, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 114)

8 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has T<font color='red'>♦</font> T<font color='black'>♠</font>

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 2.92 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.92 BB, UTG+1 raises to 10 BB

Villain made this move for first time , he was out of position and he put in the middle half of his stack so I assumed he was nutted although he open limped! I would like to point out that after me I had one more opponent to act but I had them both covered!

Although I didn't 3bet him but just raised his open limp his Fold to 3bet was 80% [4/5]

What is my move here?

i think we can just fold here, the fact that he didnt raise all in signifies that he's looking for calls and is a strong move... this is just always QQ+ to me

This could be a squeeze with a low pocket pair or suited connectors, especially if your table image is aggressive pre-flop.
Or he could have a premium hand that he limped in hopes of being able to 3-bet.
Unfortunately TT is a difficult hand to play here. It's hard to know whether you are ahead or behind pre-flop, and it will probably be tricky to determine that on the flop also.
I'd fold.

With 22 effective big blinds it would be crazy to fold TT, easy push even with 88.

Fold is good for sure...

Yeah it's a good fold in this situation. He's a slight favorite against your TT pre-flop with his 3bet rang. It's a pretty hard call because he's limping in from UTG+1 initially, but with TT here it's hard to call that bet since a lot of hands he could have would give you a lot of trouble, especially if a few broadway cards come out on the flop.

This player is playing 33% of his hands and open raising half of those. The fact that he put half his stack in, actually makes me think he doesn’t want a call. It feels like a protective bet. Obviously it’d be better if we had a limp/call%, and flop aggression% as well as some other stats, but with what we have, I’ve got a reckless player, raising utg1, I’d put him on a range of 22+, AJo+, KJo+.
If you disagree with this range, great, put what range you put him on and run it through an equity calculator.
Given the range I put him on(yours might be different), pocket TT’s are a 58% favorite against his range. I’m not folding!!!
I’m either calling and shoving/calling shove most flops, or putting him all in right now. I’ll still have 12bb the times I’m wrong.
If this were near a money bubble, I’d see merit for folding in some circumstances

rckstr2b said:

This player is playing 33% of his hands and open raising half of those. The fact that he put half his stack in, actually makes me think he doesn’t want a call. It feels like a protective bet. Obviously it’d be better if we had a limp/call%, and flop aggression% as well as some other stats, but with what we have, I’ve got a reckless player, raising utg1, I’d put him on a range of 22+, AJo+, KJo+.
If you disagree with this range, great, put what range you put him on and run it through an equity calculator.
Given the range I put him on(yours might be different), pocket TT’s are a 58% favorite against his range. I’m not folding!!!
I’m either calling and shoving/calling shove most flops, or putting him all in right now. I’ll still have 12bb the times I’m wrong.
If this were near a money bubble, I’d see merit for folding in some circumstances

Click to expand...

Thats possible, but in my opinion, you should only make this read if villain has proven hes capable of doing this kind of play light. Otherwise, because its so polarizing, its better to err on the side of caution.

mbrenneman0 said:

Thats possible, but in my opinion, you should only make this read if villain has proven hes capable of doing this kind of play light. Otherwise, because its so polarizing, its better to err on the side of caution.

Click to expand...

In a lot of situations, I don’t disagree with this. Since I don’t have all of the required info to make that read, and stats look a little fishy, in this situation, I’m unlikely folding. Most of the other players at the table are much tighter. If a tight player had made this play, it would be easier to find a fold. However, I’d be looking at their squeeze% , 3bet/fold%..etc
I wouldn’t be so sure yet that this player would only do this with a range that crushes us.
Pocket TT’s are pretty strong here.
Understanding that in certain situations it’s correct to get away from situation like this is great. Just don’t be too eager to give too much credit to a player that you’ve not played much with. If you do this frequently, you are leaving a lot of value on the tables.

Your thoughts are very helpful guys so far , thank you so much.. I thought it was an instant decision but the comments are mixed! I can give you some extra stats no matter if you continue commenting , I totally agree that the sample of his hands is small in order to understand what he is trying to represent here with this move.

his squeeze % is 0 from any position
flop aggression is 38%
VPIP from EP is 46(6/13)

I just remember that I didn't want in this particular spot to be flipping and lose my half stack.If I remember correctly we weren't ITM. Me personally I would shove QQ+ here with a player behind me yet to act! I don't know if I am too nit, that's why I shared this hand!

liuouhgkres said:

With 22 effective big blinds it would be crazy to fold TT, easy push even with 88.

Click to expand...

Hero has 3rd biggest stack at the table, and would be crippled or eliminated by a loss. I'd be more likely to 4-bet push in a cash game. I agree that I would push rather than call, but I would fold here and find better spots later.

rckstr2b said:

I’ll still have 12bb the times I’m wrong

Click to expand...

This depends on the BB's actions too.
My first instinct is that the villain is squeezing light and the BB has shown no strength, but I'm not willing to risk this much to see if I am right.

akmost said:

I can give you some extra stats no matter if you continue commenting

Click to expand...

Tell us about your table image. Does the villain have reason to believe you would raise with a wide range?
Are you close to the money?
About how big is the average stack in the tournament?

akmost said:

Your thoughts are very helpful guys so far , thank you so much.. I thought it was an instant decision but the comments are mixed! I can give you some extra stats no matter if you continue commenting , I totally agree that the sample of his hands is small in order to understand what he is trying to represent here with this move.

his squeeze % is 0 from any position
flop aggression is 38%
VPIP from EP is 46(6/13)

I just remember that I didn't want in this particular spot to be flipping and lose my half stack.If I remember correctly we weren't ITM. Me personally I would shove QQ+ here with a player behind me yet to act! I don't know if I am too nit, that's why I shared this hand!

Click to expand...

Sample size is really small at 52 hands but one thing stands out pretty clear......
6 out of his 13 opens were from EP, which isn’t definitive but a good sign this person may raise their whole raising range from any position. If I can make that read(which I’m not sure we can yet) then he could be doing this so wide that my 10’s absolutely crush his range

OP, you have 22 bb. You absolutely can not fold tens no matter what is situation. You don't want to flip? Well then you shouldn't play mtt, because there is no way you avoid them.

AlexTheOwl said:

Tell us about your table image. Does the villain have reason to believe you would raise with a wide range?
Are you close to the money?
About how big is the average stack in the tournament?

Click to expand...

I was playing 19/13 and total Afq 55
3bet: 6 / f3bet 66[10/15] / cbet 100[5/5] / fbet[7/12]
steal 40 / fold to steal 88 / WTSD 20[5/24] / WSD 100[5/5]
flop aggression 42

those stats are in 164 hands

I had raised - 3bet this vilain many times , around 5 because he open limped very often.

Not yet in the money if I am not mistaken
the average stack is 18274 and I had 19871 . The opponent had 12775
Yes he could tell that I could raise/3bet him light.

liuouhgkres said:

OP, you have 22 bb. You absolutely can not fold tens no matter what is situation. You don't want to flip? Well then you shouldn't play mtt, because there is no way you avoid them.

Click to expand...

I partly agree with you but ok in general you are right. Sometimes I can easily muck my strong had for example AQ off , against a maniac simply because I don't want to coin flip my tournament life. Or against a 3 way all in I am very nit

But I know very well that some winning flips are important in order to run deep in a tournament!

akmost said:

I had raised - 3bet this vilain many times , around 5 because he open limped very often.

Not yet in the money if I am not mistaken
the average stack is 18274 and I had 19871 . The opponent had 12775
Yes he could tell that I could raise/3bet him light.

Click to expand...

I'm leaning more towards rckstr2b and liuouhgkres's view on shoving here now, though unlike liuouhgkres I don't think it's crazy to consider folding and waiting for a better spot.

I've seen players "take a stand" with small or medium pocket pairs many times in situations like this. I think this villain is more likely to be doing that then check-raising with a high pair.