$1 NLHE MTT: Value shove river with two pair?

ninoverm · Mar 5, 2017

Two tables left in a 180 man S&G, pretty decent chip stack at this point. Couple of interesting decisions this hand, especially the river spot.

To touch on the pre-flop action: I was in a pretty good spot at this stage of the tournament and saw no reason to get out of line against a UTG open from a bigger stack. AQo is a somewhat okay hand to get to a flop with multi-way and my hand is pretty under-repped, also considering the insane pot odds I was getting in the big blind.

SB was a pretty weird and fishy player, as proven by his minbet on the turn. Hitting two pair I thought raising was definitely the fine play here. If his bet was a bit larger I might have considered calling. Not sure.

River is the pretty annoying 8s. BTN has 7.1K left behind at this point, with the pot being 13.8K. I naturally clicked check, but basically regretted it almost instantly. The thing is: I was gonna check-call (maybe you can put up an argument for check-folding, but yeah) and I'm pretty sure ALL better hands will value shove this river after being checked to. In this case, KJ and flushes are the only better hands in his range. Both should be shoving.

Meanwhile, all worse hands will check back. BUT I think some of those worse hands will also call the river. AT, A8s, maybe if he flatted AK pre. So I'm missing value against those hands - and against better hands I'm basically losing the same, because I was gonna check-call shoves.

Do you think my thinking is correct here? Is shoving a better play in the long run over checking? Or maybe someone can come up with a creative small blocking bet? Would be interested in what you think.

poker stars $0.91+$0.09 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 8 players

UTG+1: t40132 M = 30.87
MP1: t15427 M = 11.87
MP2: t4426 M = 3.40
CO: t21258 M = 16.35
BTN: t12314 M = 9.47
SB: t12370 M = 9.52
Hero (BB): t22685 M = 17.45
UTG: t36887 M = 28.37

Pre Flop: (t1300) Hero is BB with Q :club: A :diamond:
UTG raises to t1320, 4 folds, BTN calls t1320, SB calls t1020, Hero calls t720

Flop: (t5680) 3 :club: T :heart: Q :spade: (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Turn: (t5680) A :spade: (4 players)
SB bets t600, Hero raises to t3765, UTG folds, BTN calls t3765, SB folds

River: (t13810) 8 :spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

PokerNuts01 · Mar 5, 2017

You do not have a position + bad river card..
We talked about this many times. In this case check is a good. Just my opinion m8.

ninoverm · Mar 5, 2017

PokerNuts01 said:
You do not have a position + bad river card..
We talked about this many times. In this case check is a good. Just my opinion m8.

I appreciate your opinion. You're saying exactly the same as what I naturally thought at the time - bad river card, check.

Not being in position makes it more of a value shove though - there is no chance to get value anymore once I check, right?

Unless you say we should be check-folding here, but I'd be interested in your argumentation if that's what you think.

PokerNuts01 · Mar 5, 2017

ninoverm said:
I appreciate your opinion. You're saying exactly the same as what I naturally thought at the time - bad river card, check.

Not being in position makes it more of a value shove though - there is no chance to get value anymore once I check, right?

Unless you say we should be check-folding here, but I'd be interested in your argumentation if that's what you think.

Check-call is the right answer m8

ninoverm · Mar 5, 2017

PokerNuts01 said:
Check-call is the right answer m8

Can you read the first post again and formulate some arguments against what I'm saying there?

PokerNuts01 · Mar 5, 2017

ninoverm said:
Can you read the first post again and formulate some arguments against what I'm saying there?

only one .. after bad river card you will not get a call from worse hand. Only better hand will pay! Unnecessary risk m8..

16clumsyandshy · Mar 5, 2017

I think when the BTN cold calls on the turn, he could have a lot of combo draws and two pairs, and I know you want to get value from the two pairs. As you said, the straights and flushes will be shoving this river. I could see an argument for betting like 2.5k and folding to a shove. I think he will reluctantly call with worse two pair. I think I like this better than check-calling.

ninoverm · Mar 5, 2017

PokerNuts01 said:
only one .. after bad river card you will not get a call from worse hand. Only better hand will pay! Unnecessary risk m8..

I'm not risking anything. If I'm check-calling I'm losing the effective stack anyway against flushes and KJ. But now I'm missing value against worse two pairs or maybe a hand like AK.

16clumsyandshy said:
I think when the BTN cold calls on the turn, he could have a lot of combo draws and two pairs, and I know you want to get value from the two pairs. As you said, the straights and flushes will be shoving this river. I could see an argument for betting like 2.5k and folding to a shove. I think he will reluctantly call with worse two pair. I think I like this better than check-calling.

Like this thinking. Hard to balance, but I guess that's not that important on micros. Could maybe do the same with some flushes if this spot had to be balanced. Maybe this way I will even get KJ to only call instead of shoving, which would save me some money. Just a bit tough to fold when shoved on with the odds I would be getting.

mbrenneman0 · Mar 6, 2017

i think i like a slightly bigger bet sizing on the turn. with SBs minbet, the pot is effectively larger and SB, if he has anything, has better calling odds to your bet sizing. youre also giving BTN correct implied odds to call with a flush draw if he has one. id go with a sizing of roughly 4500 chips here. if SB had checked your sizing would be fine.

otherwise well played, i like the check, but i could also see an argument for a small river bet. i think the check induces a lot of bluffs and value bets from worse hands so personally I like the check better.

ninoverm · Mar 7, 2017

mbrenneman0 said:
i think i like a slightly bigger bet sizing on the turn. with SBs minbet, the pot is effectively larger and SB, if he has anything, has better calling odds to your bet sizing. youre also giving BTN correct implied odds to call with a flush draw if he has one. id go with a sizing of roughly 4500 chips here. if SB had checked your sizing would be fine.

otherwise well played, i like the check, but i could also see an argument for a small river bet. i think the check induces a lot of bluffs and value bets from worse hands so personally I like the check better.

I think it's pretty standard to play pot control in the latter stages of an MTT and the board simply isn't wet enough to go for a huge sizing here, especially multi-way. But I see why you would go bigger here.

What bluffs do you come up with after I check to him? I really can't think of any, which is partly the reason I think I should be value betting here.

Gerb · Mar 7, 2017

If you're planning on check-calling, then you're really not risking anything by betting. If he's a little loose/crazy, he could easily call a smallish bet with Ax or worse 2 pair.....I probably would.

mbrenneman0 · Mar 7, 2017

Gerb said:
If you're planning on check-calling, then you're really not risking anything by betting. If he's a little loose/crazy, he could easily call a smallish bet with Ax or worse 2 pair.....I probably would.

yes you are. he calls a river bet with a tighter range than he bets on the river, meaning if you bet you have less equity against his calling range and therefore less EV

ninoverm · Mar 7, 2017

mbrenneman0 said:
yes you are. he calls a river bet with a tighter range than he bets on the river, meaning if you bet you have less equity against his calling range and therefore less EV

So you're saying the number of hands that bet is more than the number of hands that call a bet? Not sure. At this point, he has a lot of showdown value, like listed in the first post.

Unless you're saying he could bluff, but I'm still interested what he's putting his tournament life on the line with with such low SPR.

mbrenneman0 · Mar 7, 2017

ninoverm said:
So you're saying the number of hands that bet is more than the number of hands that call a bet? Not sure. At this point, he has a lot of showdown value, like listed in the first post.

Unless you're saying he could bluff, but I'm still interested what he's putting his tournament life on the line with with such low SPR.

does he ever call a bet as a bluff? even if it doesnt happen often, he bluffs sometimes, and by betting we take all of those sometimes out of his range.. does he ever call with less than top pair? probably not but he might bet sometimes even if its not often. top pair? he probably calls with top pair, but he bets top pair more often than he calls with top pair.

when i think about what hands call a river bet and then think about what hands might bet river, i think thats a big enough difference to make betting -EV and check calling +EV

also now that i think about it, I like a 3bet all in pre. probably better EV and makes the hand a lot easier at the same time. but that might just be results oriented thinking and definitely read dependant on UTG

ninoverm · Mar 7, 2017

mbrenneman0 said:
does he ever call a bet as a bluff? even if it doesnt happen often, he bluffs sometimes, and by betting we take all of those sometimes out of his range.. does he ever call with less than top pair? probably not but he might bet sometimes even if its not often. top pair? he probably calls with top pair, but he bets top pair more often than he calls with top pair.

Never ever does he bet with top pair here. That wouldn't make any sense. Calling does. And still... Saying 'he might bluff' is a bit too much of level 1 thinking I feel like. What hands does he bluff with that call the turn?

mbrenneman0 said:
also now that i think about it, I like a 3bet all in pre. probably better EV and makes the hand a lot easier at the same time. but that might just be results oriented thinking and definitely read dependant on UTG

With 37 (!) big blinds, I'm 3rd/16 at this moment. Shoving seems woeful, especially against a UTG raising range. With ICM considerations as well of course. 3-betting to then fold against a 4-bet shove seems pretty bad as well, so I just took my odds and decided to look at a flop, under-repping my hand.

mbrenneman0 · Mar 7, 2017

ninoverm said:
Never ever does he bet with top pair here. That wouldn't make any sense. Calling does. And still... Saying 'he might bluff' is a bit too much of level 1 thinking I feel like. What hands does he bluff with that call the turn?

K9. could turn weak pairs into a bluff too.. like i said, doesnt happen often, but it happens enough to make a difference. especially a check on the third spade to some players looks like youre afraid of the flush so he might try to represent it even if its not a good bluff.

he never ever bets top pair? is this not a $1 game?

mbrenneman0 · Mar 7, 2017

ninoverm said:
With 37 (!) big blinds, I'm 3rd/16 at this moment. Shoving seems woeful, especially against a UTG raising range. With ICM considerations as well of course. 3-betting to then fold against a 4-bet shove seems pretty bad as well, so I just took my odds and decided to look at a flop, under-repping my hand.

yeah i can see that. its definitely read dependant, if i thought utg was opening too wide, then id go for it though. if he's a solid player then probably not.

ninoverm · Mar 7, 2017

mbrenneman0 said:
K9. could turn weak pairs into a bluff too.. like i said, doesnt happen often, but it happens enough to make a difference. especially a check on the third spade to some players looks like youre afraid of the flush so he might try to represent it even if its not a good bluff.

he never ever bets top pair? is this not a $1 game?

K9 would be an insanely loose call both pre and on the turn. Villain seemed solid enough to not get here with any K9. Most weak pairs he will just check back... Wouldn't make sense to call the turn otherwise. But yeah, maybe he could see the check as a green light to bet. Just think it's quite unlikely.

The fact it's a $1 game leads me to think he will call a shove with top pair more than he will bet himself if checked to.

mbrenneman0 said:
yeah i can see that. its definitely read dependant, if i thought utg was opening too wide, then id go for it though. if he's a solid player then probably not.

Makes sense.

stokedog4 · Mar 7, 2017

I think you played the hand very well. Once we get it heads up we are OOP vs a ss. Playing aggro here is probably best and your hand is way under repped like you said. Not sure of the structure, but with 20BBs the button would prob shove his flush draw a good % of the time on the turn. He range is huge, but it's prob something silly like K3o, KTo, or KQo. I thinking shoving river is fine play, if he snaps with flush, str8, trips, nh, and you still have near 20bbs.

Dwarf · Mar 7, 2017

Shoving the river with your hand is a bluff.

SB min bets the turn, and your 1/2 pot check raise prices in a lot of draws BTN could have or you could be playing right into his set trap.

When you consider both open ended straights and a flush made it by the river. I dont even know if check calling on that river is a good plan. Especially check calling a shove.

As mentioned earlier you don't have position on a bad river. You also do not block any combos to his flushes or straights. Checking is your best play.

Button probably didn't get here spewing calls to check raises.

If his range is TT,33,AKs,ATs,A8s,KJs,JsTs,J9s,97s,AKo,KJo you have 33% Equity

ninoverm · Mar 8, 2017

Dwarf said:
Shoving the river with your hand is a bluff.

SB min bets the turn, and your 1/2 pot check raise prices in a lot of draws BTN could have or you could be playing right into his set trap.

When you consider both open ended straights and a flush made it by the river. I dont even know if check calling on that river is a good plan. Especially check calling a shove.

As mentioned earlier you don't have position on a bad river. You also do not block any combos to his flushes or straights. Checking is your best play.

Button probably didn't get here spewing calls to check raises.

If his range is TT,33,AKs,ATs,A8s,KJs,JsTs,J9s,97s,AKo,KJo you have 33% Equity

Not a check-raise, I raised the SB lead. I guess you just auto-typed check-raise.

I don't think the villain was tricky enough to trap TT or 33 on the flop here and I don't think he should be, considering we're multi-way and a QT3 is coordinated enough to charge draws, even rainbow. Also don't think he should/will get here with 97s (way too loose especially OTT) and KJo.

Anyway: I do see merit in check-folding here and you're right in putting an argument up about this. Biggest concern here is that he has half pot behind, giving me insane odds on a call. But yeah, if you say check-fold, the shove plan obviously goes out the window.

ninoverm · Mar 8, 2017

By the way, SB did this minbet thingy a lot with garbage, so I basically sized my raise thinking of the odds of the UTG and BTN, not the SB. So betting 3765 into a 6280 pot. Pretty big all things considered.

trent32la · Mar 8, 2017

If UTG has a reasonably high RFI% here, I'm squeezing pre to 5555 and calling off the BU/SB.

Turn raise is fine, I'm always checking river. This is one of the worst river cards in the deck. J9 got there, spades got there, and I just don't see your opponent calling off a shove with a worse hand here (if he had like AT/KJ I think he shoves over OTT).

If the river was an offsuit 8 I'd shove.

ninoverm · Mar 8, 2017

trent32la said:
If UTG has a reasonably high RFI% here, I'm squeezing pre to 5555 and calling off the BU/SB.

Turn raise is fine, I'm always checking river. This is one of the worst river cards in the deck. J9 got there, spades got there, and I just don't see your opponent calling off a shove with a worse hand here (if he had like AT/KJ I think he shoves over OTT).

If the river was an offsuit 8 I'd shove.

Thanks. I'm fairly sure UTG had been quite snug, don't remember perfectly well anymore.

So on the river, do you say check-call or check-fold?

shinedown.45 · Mar 8, 2017

ninoverm said:
Two tables left in a 180 man S&G, pretty decent chip stack at this point. Couple of interesting decisions this hand, especially the river spot.

To touch on the pre-flop action: I was in a pretty good spot at this stage of the tournament and saw no reason to get out of line against a UTG open from a bigger stack. AQo is a somewhat okay hand to get to a flop with multi-way and my hand is pretty under-repped, also considering the insane pot odds I was getting in the big blind.

SB was a pretty weird and fishy player, as proven by his minbet on the turn. Hitting two pair I thought raising was definitely the fine play here. If his bet was a bit larger I might have considered calling. Not sure.

River is the pretty annoying 8s. BTN has 7.1K left behind at this point, with the pot being 13.8K. I naturally clicked check, but basically regretted it almost instantly. The thing is: I was gonna check-call (maybe you can put up an argument for check-folding, but yeah) and I'm pretty sure ALL better hands will value shove this river after being checked to. In this case, KJ and flushes are the only better hands in his range. Both should be shoving.

Meanwhile, all worse hands will check back. BUT I think some of those worse hands will also call the river. AT, A8s, maybe if he flatted AK pre. So I'm missing value against those hands - and against better hands I'm basically losing the same, because I was gonna check-call shoves.

Do you think my thinking is correct here? Is shoving a better play in the long run over checking? Or maybe someone can come up with a creative small blocking bet? Would be interested in what you think.

Poker Stars $0.91+$0.09 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 8 players

UTG+1: t40132 M = 30.87
MP1: t15427 M = 11.87
MP2: t4426 M = 3.40
CO: t21258 M = 16.35
BTN: t12314 M = 9.47
SB: t12370 M = 9.52
Hero (BB): t22685 M = 17.45
UTG: t36887 M = 28.37

Pre Flop: (t1300) Hero is BB with Q ♣ A ♦
UTG raises to t1320, 4 folds, BTN calls t1320, SB calls t1020, Hero calls t720

Flop: (t5680) 3 ♣ T ♥ Q ♠ (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Turn: (t5680) A ♠ (4 players)
SB bets t600, Hero raises to t3765, UTG folds, BTN calls t3765, SB folds

River: (t13810) 8 ♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

I thought holding cards like AQ OOP when facing a raise calls for a 3-bet, or is that when the only raiser is a potential blind steal attempt?

I don't understand why you didn't bet the flop but agree with why you checked the river.

$1 NLHE MTT: Value shove river with two pair?

ninoverm

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