$1 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Am i right folding 77 to a 9BB shove due to ICM ?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/18/1

$0.91 Buy-in (40,000/80,000 blinds, 8,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Let me guide you through my thought process.
The villain is shoving 9BB and i am sitting in the SB with 77. I am surely way ahead of his range but here is the situation.
This is the 6max final table and before we got here i played with him 3 handed when there were only 2 tables left. He was sitting on a 20-25BB stack at that time. He never once open shoved and i was stealing his every BB. His FtoSteal is 86%. When he shoves here i still think its going to be Ax and broadway heavy and also every pair. I think much of the time i will be flipping.
Now the other thing is that i am second in chips with a healthy but vulnerable 20BB. There are 4 players that have a lot less chips than me and even though its a 1e buy in and the pay jumps are not that significant i think in practice this should be a fold. I mean 6th gets 23e and 2nd gets 93e so its still a solid jump.
I will run this hand in ICM calculators and let you know but if the fold was correct but in the moment i would like to see what would some of you do.


Hero (SB): 1,627,236 (20.3 bb)
BB: 647,844 (8.1 bb)
UTG: 877,118 (11 bb)
MP: 3,326,326 (41.6 bb)
CO: 740,634 (9.3 bb)
BTN: 880,842 (11 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7 7
2 folds, CO raises to 732,634 and is all-in, 3 folds

Results: 248,000 pot
CO mucked and won 248,000 (160,000 net)

If anyone wanted to know if the fold was correct here are the results.
https://imgur.com/a/qu4jd
1st picture shows the profitable calling range from a chip EV stand point.
2nd picture shows the profitable calling range when all variables are entered and when ICM comes to play.
So 77 are still a profitable call for 0.3BB but its a high risk low reward kind of situation.

Please provide payouts for better understanding.

razzor94 said:

If anyone wanted to know if the fold was correct here are the results.
https://imgur.com/a/qu4jd
1st picture shows the profitable calling range from a chip EV stand point.
2nd picture shows the profitable calling range when all variables are entered and when ICM comes to play.
So 77 are still a profitable call for 0.3BB but its a high risk low reward kind of situation.

Click to expand...

Yes its very interesting hand and thx for posting the answer..but i would like also as friend said below the payouts of FT.

1st 146.14e
2nd 93.22e
3rd 68.08e
4th 49.68e
5th 34.96e
6th 23.30e

*e stands for euros

razzor94 said:

1st 146.14e
2nd 93.22e
3rd 68.08e
4th 49.68e
5th 34.96e
6th 23.30e

*e stands for euros

Click to expand...

I run it also on ICMIZER.it gives almost same results with this u posted at picture.so it seems 77 is call (even little marginal).To be honest before results i would fold it..Personally i would call with 99+,AJs+,AQo+..In which position u finished finally?

rikoberto said:

I run it also on ICMIZER.it gives almost same results with this u posted at picture.so it seems 77 is call (even little marginal).To be honest before results i would fold it..Personally i would call with 99+,AJs+,AQo+..In which position u finished finally?

Click to expand...

Well if you look some of the other streamers than use ICMIZER or similar software they advise playing hands that are at least +0.5(half a BB) profitable because of the high risk/low reward situation, but i agree with your calling range as a think 99 is a definite call and 88 is where i would have a hard time but would fold/call based on the villain.
I managed to take this one down. After that fold i was running pretty good to say the least
You would be surprised to hear that the chip leader was the first one to bust.

Thats nice..1st place is always 1st place.. Congratulations Razzor and GG

rikoberto said:

Thats nice..1st place is always 1st place.. Congratulations Razzor and GG

Click to expand...

Thanks m8 !

razzor94 said:

If anyone wanted to know if the fold was correct here are the results.
https://imgur.com/a/qu4jd
1st picture shows the profitable calling range from a chip EV stand point.
2nd picture shows the profitable calling range when all variables are entered and when ICM comes to play.
So 77 are still a profitable call for 0.3BB but its a high risk low reward kind of situation.

Click to expand...

Now, I see. Yes, 77 is pretty marginal.
The results from ICMizer or Holdem Resources are Nash Equilibrium. But as you will learn sooner or later, people don't play according to Nash.

I might have folded there too. Given your read that he was a tight player, add that with the table dynamics, the table is so short-stacked. You're 2nd in chips, there are 4 short-stack, who will have to take chance in the next few orbits. A call would mean 1/2 your stack in, i.e. if you lose, you're now the short stack and if you win, you're still not the chip leader, you're getting closer to him, but he still has an advantage over you. A 20bb stack will do as much as a 30bb stack in such a table dynamics (the plays won't be differ by that much). So as you said, the risk to reward isn't that great.

Glad to hear that you took it home. Congrats!

AviCKter said:

Now, I see. Yes, 77 is pretty marginal.
The results from ICMizer or Holdem Resources are Nash Equilibrium. But as you will learn sooner or later, people don't play according to Nash.

I might have folded there too. Given your read that he was a tight player, add that with the table dynamics, the table is so short-stacked. You're 2nd in chips, there are 4 short-stack, who will have to take chance in the next few orbits. A call would mean 1/2 your stack in, i.e. if you lose, you're now the short stack and if you win, you're still not the chip leader, you're getting closer to him, but he still has an advantage over you. A 20bb stack will do as much as a 30bb stack in such a table dynamics (the plays won't be differ by that much). So as you said, the risk to reward isn't that great.

Glad to hear that you took it home. Congrats!

Click to expand...

They dont play according to Nash but i find it a good starting point when defining a range. At the moment i thought if i loose the race with 77 i wont have the opportunity to utilize my stealing as i would be forced to shove if i were to steal whether with 20BB i still have the option to raise/fold if the pot odds dont bind me to call.

Thanks man.

razzor94 said:

They dont play according to Nash but i find it a good starting point when defining a range. At the moment i thought if i loose the race with 77 i wont have the opportunity to utilize my stealing as i would be forced to shove if i were to steal whether with 20BB i still have the option to raise/fold if the pot odds dont bind me to call.

Thanks man.

Click to expand...

True.
Now, here's what you should do, now that you've got this hand history. Go to Holdem Resources, and given your read, edit his range, give him a tight range, lock and run the simulation. This will help you define your own range too for future references.

That's what I used to do in the beginning, run a lot of simulations. That helps a lot when you're moving to a much tougher game.

All the best!