$1 NLHE MTT: Mistake with AQs deep in the tournament ?

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razzor94

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/19/2.3

poker stars, $1 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 286,079 (71.5 bb)
BB: 523,132 (130.8 bb)
MP: 60,168 (15 bb)
Hero (CO): 219,439 (54.9 bb)
BTN: 304,898 (76.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A
club4.gif
Q
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MP folds, Hero raises to 8,800, BTN raises to 29,600, 2 folds, Hero calls 20,800

Flop: (67,700) 4
heart4.gif
T
club4.gif
5
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 32,000, Hero raises to 189,339 and is all-in, BTN calls 157,339

Turn: (446,378) 9
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (446,378) 2
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 446,378 pot
Final Board: 4
heart4.gif
T
club4.gif
5
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9
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2
diamond4.gif


I have 100 hands on him and his 3bet is 10.7 over 30 hands he has faced a raise. So he 3bet 3 times out of 30. Since we are deep stacked around 55BB effective and becouse i have been raising frequently i assume when he 3bets its not always going to be QQ+ AK. Also he is IP so i gave him a range of some suited Ax to go with his value 3bets.
I didnt want to 4bet get it in 55BB preflop so i took the flop OOP. Also his 3bet sizing was around 3.5x so it looked to me like he wanted to take the pot pre rather than take it to the streets.
I think post flop is pretty standard.
Whould any of you play it differently. Keep in mind there are only 25 players left.
 
Q

QA77

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You can play this a few different ways. The way you played it is fine. I would call the flop and evaluate turn since you still have quite a few chips.
 
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AviCKter

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Break-down

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 30/19/2.3

Flop: (67,700) 4
heart4.gif
T
club4.gif
5
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 32,000, Hero raises to 189,339 and is all-in, BTN calls 157,339

Turn: (446,378) 9
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (446,378) 2
diamond4.gif
(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 446,378 pot
Final Board: 4
heart4.gif
T
club4.gif
5
club4.gif
9
diamond4.gif
2
diamond4.gif

Even when I give him a no fold range of {99+, AK}, you have an equity of 46.59% on that flop.

So,
EVfold = 0
EVcall=0.4659*99700-0.5341*32000 = +29359.03
EVcheck-raise all-in = 0.4659*257039-0.5341*189339 = +18628.5102

As you can see, that the EVcall > EVcheck-raise all-in.

Also you might have noticed, the more wider you make his range, the better the equity and hence the numbers would change a bit. Not saying that your aggressive line wasn't profitable, but personally, I would have much rather called here.

Hope it makes sense.
 

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razzor94

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Yes but the problem i have with calling is what do you do on the turn when the pot is huge, you feel pot committed, you miss your draw and he keeps betting.
The call on the flop is +EV given the odds if you can see the turn AND the river.
With shoving he might fold something like A5 A4 or AK. If we were 100BB deep i would call the flop for sure.
 
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AviCKter

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Yes but the problem i have with calling is what do you do on the turn when the pot is huge, you feel pot committed, you miss your draw and he keeps betting.
The call on the flop is +EV given the odds if you can see the turn AND the river.
With shoving he might fold something like A5 A4 or AK. If we were 100BB deep i would call the flop for sure.

The pot is 131700 after you call, you've 157339 left. Even if you take just stack as your commitment criteria, you're not committed (you've an SPR > 1). Playing the calling way, you're leaving yourself 40bb.

I think you're feeling committed to the chips you've already spent, if that's the case understand that the chips that are already in the pot are no longer yours. Ignore the above statement, if not the case. I always base my decision on EV, never on anything else.
 
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razzor94

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The pot is 131700 after you call, you've 157339 left. Even if you take just stack as your commitment criteria, you're not committed (you've an SPR > 1). Playing the calling way, you're leaving yourself 40bb.

I think you're feeling committed to the chips you've already spent, if that's the case understand that the chips that are already in the pot are no longer yours. Ignore the above statement, if not the case. I always base my decision on EV, never on anything else.

Fair enough. Cheers
 
DougPkrMonsta

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5-handed with AQs in the CO I think with your stack size you are better off 4-bet shoving this one. You are ahead of his 3-betting range and while you'll be getting it in bad sometimes, you pick up this pot without showdown pretty often and have fine equity when called most of the time - it is a very profitable spot.

As played you can't get away from that flop, against some players I'd rather lead and call it off instead of CRAI, but depends on if your opponent will ever lay down a bricked AK or small pocket pair.

Next time do yourself a favor and just hit a club!

Good luck to you! :D
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Even when I give him a no fold range of {99+, AK}, you have an equity of 46.59% on that flop.

So,
EVfold = 0
EVcall=0.4659*99700-0.5341*32000 = +29359.03
EVcheck-raise all-in = 0.4659*257039-0.5341*189339 = +18628.5102

As you can see, that the EVcall > EVcheck-raise all-in.


Avi's estimates and calculations seem right to me, but I still like the shove.

Here's what I think we are missing:

The EV call calculation assumes that the hero has about a 47% chance of winning the hand by the river. I think that's reasonable. But the hero's call is not all in. Often the hero's de facto equity on the turn is zero, because he often folds the turn.

If the turn does not improve the hero's hand, the villain may continue betting. The hero is forced to fold to any substantial bet. This makes the hero's real chance of winning by the river substantially less than 47%, although I am not certain how to calculate it precisely.

We have to consider the playability of hands during future action when deciding what actions to take. The calculations alone are not enough. In this case, the hero's draw and overcards hand will often be unplayable on the turn.
 
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AviCKter

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Missing information

Yes, the other plays are certainly profitable. And the plays/consideration other people are suggesting are valid; some plays makes the decision easier.

But that's not why I'm here:
25 players left and 5 Players on the table
How does the table distribution work out here? You're missing/not-providing a very important information here. We cannot assume everything and analyze, you have to provide us with all the relevant information. The better answer you want, the more information you've to provide.
 
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trent32la

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Flatting the 3B pre is fine, 4B jamming 55bb is never going to get called by worse and folds out all of V's bluffs. If we are <35bb then we can consider it.

Flop is an easy x/shove as played since your equity vs a calling range is very good here and if you miss the turn and get jammed on you can't call, + you may fold out a hand like AK.
 
DougPkrMonsta

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I dislike flatting 15% of my stack with my opponent having initiative and position but I agree a jam is a little big.

Flatting is fine and can definitely be better against players that don't play well postflop, so reads are always going to affect the best play.

I suggested 4-betting since you realize your equity better this way and I feel like at a 5-handed table in a $1 tournament you will still get called by AJ and AT and even KQ and KJ sometimes, plus you put pressure on small pairs.

Good luck to you!
 
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trent32la

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I dislike flatting 15% of my stack with my opponent having initiative and position but I agree a jam is a little big.

Flatting is fine and can definitely be better against players that don't play well postflop, so reads are always going to affect the best play.

I suggested 4-betting since you realize your equity better this way and I feel like at a 5-handed table in a $1 tournament you will still get called by AJ and AT and even KQ and KJ sometimes, plus you put pressure on small pairs.

Good luck to you!
There's plenty of times where flatting more than 15% of your stack vs a 3bet is going to make sense.

Zero chance a guy with a 2.3% 3bet is going to be 3Bing KJ/KQ/AT and likely not AJ and also calling off a 55bb 4bet shove. People do not 3B small PPs here either in today's game. You need to think about ranges more, is this dude really gonna 3B 55 here instead of flat calling?

I didn't notice when I first posted V's 3bet% was so low, which actually makes pre close (AQo is a clear fold, AQs is a borderline flat).
 
DougPkrMonsta

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Got it, I was going off this below, definitely not ripping over a 2% 3-bet range, but an 11% is quite different and would usually include pairs imo.

I have 100 hands on him and his 3bet is 10.7 over 30 hands he has faced a raise. So he 3bet 3 times out of 30

I think the 2.3 he was saying was the aggression factor for some reason... So you aren't flatting to play fit or fold, still check-raising on some dry boards?

Thanks for your reply!
 
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trent32la

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Got it, I was going off this below, definitely not ripping over a 2% 3-bet range, but an 11% is quite different:

I have 100 hands on him and his 3bet is 10.7 over 30 hands he has faced a raise. So he 3bet 3 times out of 30

I think the 2.3 he was saying was the aggression factor for some reason... So you aren't flatting to play fit or fold, still check-raising on some dry boards?

Thanks for your reply!
Yeah, the 11% 3B in the end of the OP was what I first looked at. It is very relevant whether V's 3bet is 2% or 11% here.

I'm sort of playing fit or fold flatting vs an 11% 3B. On flops like 9T7ss I'm check/folding to a bet ofc, but on dry boards such as 752r I'm x/c because we still beat V's bluffs. I can't think of a dry flop where check-raising with AQ here would makes sense because we end up folding out all of V's bluffs and get called/jammed on by all of V's better (and sometimes worse) hands which we can't defend against.
 
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razzor94

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There's plenty of times where flatting more than 15% of your stack vs a 3bet is going to make sense.

Zero chance a guy with a 2.3% 3bet is going to be 3Bing KJ/KQ/AT and likely not AJ and also calling off a 55bb 4bet shove. People do not 3B small PPs here either in today's game. You need to think about ranges more, is this dude really gonna 3B 55 here instead of flat calling?

I didn't notice when I first posted V's 3bet% was so low, which actually makes pre close (AQo is a clear fold, AQs is a borderline flat).

At the time i thought his 3bet range consists of QQ+ AK and some weak AXs as i have been opening quite a few times.
Never will he 3bet 55-TT, AT,AJ. JJ are weighted but still think he would flat call IP more often than not.
AQo i fold. AK i would 4bet OOP cause i would rather pick up the pot right now if i can. IP i would consider calling AK.
 
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