Originally Posted by johnnythemoss
I mean, I can understand shoving 99 with 13bb but I don't understand folding it. Surely folding 99 can't be right?


You can use math to decide if you want to take a chance with 99 and 7 players left to act. There are 1326 possible hands. 30 of these have you dominated (6 combinations of each pair over 99). So 7X30=210. 1326/210= 6.3 So every 6 times you go all in, you are dominated once. Doesn't sound bad.
But who else will call and what are their chances?
AK, AQ, and AJs would probably call. That is another 36 combinations times 7 hands or 5.2:1. So now 1/3 of the time you shove 99, you get called either dominated or a coin flip.
Will anyone call you with you ahead? Maybe 88 or 77 will, but I doubt it.
So with the example above, blinds and antes are 1785. You win that 4 of 6 times.
+7140
chips.
Coin flip 1/6 times. For this sixth you win half blinds and half your stack, and lose half your stack.
+6161 and 5268
Dominated 1/6 times
10,536
So over 6 hands, shoving 99 will win you 13,301
chips and lose you 15,804
chips.
Now if you believe pairs under 99 will call you, you gain EV. Otherwise it is a bad EV shove.