$1.65 NLHE STT: Overpair facing check/raise on the bubble

dnegsisabadreg

dnegsisabadreg

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America's Cardroom - $1.50 Regular 9-Max - Level 5 (75/150) - No Limit Holdem
UTG (t4,891)
Hero (CO) (t3,654)
BTN (t53)
SB (t1,364)
BB (t3,538)
SB posts the small blind of t75
BB posts the big blind of t150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [9d][9c]
UTG folds, Hero raises to t300, BTN calls t53 and is all-in, SB folds, BB calls t150

POT: t728
*** FLOP *** [5s][3s][4d]
BB checks, Hero bets t388, BB raises to t1,121, Hero ???


BTN is all-in for less than a small blind, and SB has under 10 bb, so there's strong ICM considerations here. It's pretty disastrous if we bust out before them obviously. Our hand is really good on this board, but if BB is also of ICM he should be fairly strong when he check/raises here.
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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dnegsisabadreg said:
America's Cardroom - $1.50 Regular 9-Max - Level 5 (75/150) - No Limit Holdem
UTG (t4,891)
Hero (CO) (t3,654)
BTN (t53)
SB (t1,364)
BB (t3,538)
SB posts the small blind of t75
BB posts the big blind of t150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero <font color='red'>9<font face="arial">♦</font></font><font color='black'>9♣</font>
UTG folds, Hero raises to t300, BTN calls t53 and is all-in, SB folds, BB calls t150

POT: t728
*** FLOP *** 5♠3♠<font color='red'>4<font face="arial">♦</font></font>
BB checks, Hero bets t388, BB raises to t1,121, Hero ???


BTN is all-in for less than a small blind, and SB has under 10 bb, so there's strong ICM considerations here. It's pretty disastrous if we bust out before them obviously. Our hand is really good on this board, but if BB is also of ICM he should be fairly strong when he check/raises here.
Click to expand...

The all in button reduces the chance that he's pure bluffing here, and without any pure bluffs you're actually flipping / slightly behind vs his entire raising range. Honestly your best hope here is that villain has 77 or 88 and that's only 12 combos.

This is a good spot to make a disciplined fold even without ICM, which just makes it even easier.
 
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TheArnie

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Pot is already approx 1100 after your bet and you need approx 800 to call. I'd rule out JJ+, AK, considering he flatted pre, unless he has habit of slowplaying hands like these. So you're pretty much in bad shape against TT or sets, or OESFD with overcards. Based on probability alone, I'd outrule made straight. I think on average here you are 60% favourite. Can't provide exact ICM, but for me it'd be a tough call.
 
Lucothefish

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TheArnie said:
Pot is already approx 1100 after your bet and you need approx 800 to call. I'd rule out JJ+, AK, considering he flatted pre, unless he has habit of slowplaying hands like these. So you're pretty much in bad shape against TT or sets, or OESFD with overcards. Based on probability alone, I'd outrule made straight. I think on average here you are 60% favourite. Can't provide exact ICM, but for me it'd be a tough call.
Click to expand...
Show me a range that puts hero at 60%
 
Delvuter

Delvuter

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Standard bet pre would have been 3XBB for 450. At 300 BB is going to call and see the flop. At 450 he may have folded. I would have most likely bet more like 4XBB to try to induce folds. 300 is encouraging someone to come along and 9's aren't the hand to do that with. So if villain also thinks your 300 bet is trying to encourage someone to come along his calling range gets even smaller. He has a pair something like T, or J's, not higher though cause of his call. He has trips. He has a straight. He has a flush draw. Those are all real possibilities, all of which make your 9's a fold. Post bets on wet boards should also be about 3/4 pot, so if he is drawing a call would be incorrect. I have no idea what I am talking about!
 
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Tomasz

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preflop 3x open ,as played i like x/call flop postflop and decide turn push is better for me :D from CO
 
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walleye

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Depends on BB. What are his stats? Feels like a fold unless you are dealing with a maniac. You will certainly be all-in on the river.
 
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TheArnie

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Lucothefish said:
Show me a range that puts hero at 60%
Click to expand...

I currently don't have access to PokerStove as my pc is broken, but could you please try putting in 33-TT; AT-AQ; KsTs+; 76; 8s7s. If it's below 60, I stand corrected.
 
Lucothefish

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Is this ok?

65,340 games 0.000 secs 13,068,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 3s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.659% 47.26% 02.40% 30877 1570.00 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 50.341% 47.94% 02.40% 31323 1570.00 { TT-33, AQs-ATs, KTs+, 87s, 76s }

If you add ATo-AQo then you're just short of 54/46 to win, but how often is he raising those when he's forced to show cards?
 
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TheArnie

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Lucothefish said:
Is this ok?

65,340 games 0.000 secs 13,068,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 3s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.659% 47.26% 02.40% 30877 1570.00 { 9c9d }
Hand 1: 50.341% 47.94% 02.40% 31323 1570.00 { TT-33, AQs-ATs, KTs+, 87s, 76s }

If you add ATo-AQo then you're just short of 54/46 to win, but how often is he raising those when he's forced to show cards?
Click to expand...

Yeah, thanks for analysis. I was just apprixomating numbers in my head, but seems my approximations were way off. Considering pot odds, It's be still +cEV, but -$EV. I stand corrected, so it more seems like a tough fold, not call.
 
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