$1.65 NLHE STT: Blind vs blind resteal on the flop

America's Cardroom - $1.50 Regular 9-Max - Level 6 (100/200) - No Limit Holdem
UTG (t2,390)
MP (t1,030)
HJ (t2,948)
CO (t1,570)
BTN (t1,768)
SB (t2,293)
Hero (BB) (t1,501)
SB posts the small blind of t100
Hero posts the big blind of t200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero ?? ??
UTG folds, MP folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB raises to t400, Hero calls t200

POT: t800
*** FLOP *** [3h][9c][Ks]
SB bets t200, Hero raises to t1,101 and is all-in


I've excluded Hero's hole cards from this analysis, as they're irrelevant. My question is simple, does SB fold enough to this shove to make it profitable? Villain is playing 34/29 over 82 hands for what it's worth.

I prefer restealing preflop at this stack depth tbh but otherwise this looks fine to me

Why you make call on 8bb ? In this situation batter shove preflop ...

baxre said:

Why you make call on 8bb ? In this situation batter shove preflop ...

Click to expand...

Similar to a stop and go, I think inexperienced opponents like I think villain is will fold hands on the flop that he would call with preflop.

stop making this play immediately, you are too short to be calling and you only have just over a pot sized jam left, if he bets otf 400 chips he is basically pot committed.

Im not saying it won't work, i'm just saying you will likely lose chips in the long term making this play.

This type of play works much, MUCH better if you get to make the first decision on the flop, but since we have to let villian make a bet, he can easily jam the flop himself or make a bigger bet of 400+ chips and force us to fold.

You will make more profit by opening up your jamming range in the SB or button by a few pips...