$1.65 NLHE MTT Rebuy: 500gtd mid pair call?

theANMATOR

theANMATOR

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500gtd
current blind level 75/150 ante 20

CO and myself were both near starting stack 5000 chips. We both had only played a couple hands each, won a couple lost a couple. I had CO player covered by roughly 844 total chips.

folds around to CO who min-raises to 300.
I call in bb with Q/J s, diamonds.

I've been experimenting with calling all LP raises with all playable hands, even strong but not made playable hands, because I've been working on my post-flop play, and I'm liking the results - except when someone slow plays - I seem to be totally oblivious to that, and it's something ELSE I'm working on. :)

Anyway Flop comes Jc/Kc/Td

CO jams for entire stack.

What do I do here - quite early in the event with middle pair, and straight draw?
 
F

fundiver199

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Pot is 855, you have around 4,700 left behind. This mean, he is betting around 5 times pot, and factoring in ICM you need around 50% equity to call. If we assign him a range consisting of made straights, sets, two pair, AA, AK, KQ, QQ, QJ and QT, you have around 34% equity. So for me this is a pretty clear fold. For this to become a profitable call, he need to have a lot of complete airball bluffs, and I just dont see that happening.
 
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Jon Poker

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I agree with fundiver. We have middle pair with backdoor diamonds and we are open ended, but we are behind a ton of our villans value range - for this big of a bet, I think the correct play is to fold.

Howeveeeeeeeer.....

My first instinct is what the hell does our opponent do this with? Are they really that scared with AA? Shoving to protect them? They are generally only getting called by 2 pair or better here, why shove and risk going broke or getting no value? Is AQ really taking this line? Doubt it...most people play the nuts all trappy like. Bottom set scared on this board?

It just has my mind all over the place...its either a scared made vale hand, AK, AA, KT, JT, bottom set, maybe even QQ....oooooor, it's a marginal made hand, maybe an underpair, maybe they have QJ as well, a weak Kx type hand...

I'm super rolled for this $1.65 buy in and with the backdoor flush draw + straight draw combo...I think I am going with it here. Its early in the game, I can fire bullet #2 when I brick and when I win I am super stacked and setup for a deep run. That's my personal take on the hand - I do feel like we are behind something here...

All that being said I still think the correct play is to fold. We lose the minimum, sucks we dont get to realize our equity but we avoid the spot, fold and move on
 
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fundiver199

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Jon Poker said:
My first instinct is what the hell does our opponent do this with? Are they really that scared with AA? Shoving to protect them? They are generally only getting called by 2 pair or better here, why shove and risk going broke or getting no value? Is AQ really taking this line? Doubt it...most people play the nuts all trappy like. Bottom set scared on this board?
Click to expand...

I think, there are two options here. Either he is the kind of player, who goes “LOL I have the nuts, I am all in” without thinking about, if this is the best way to get paid. Or he is panicking about getting drawn out on. And because there is a flushdraw on board, even AQ could panic here.

If anything the range, I assigned him, is probably to wide. As you say, piling it in with an AA, AK type hand would be a massive overplay. But I still think, that is more likely than him piling it in with a pure draw. He might bet his Ac5c on the flop as a semibluff, but he would not go all in.
 
theANMATOR

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Jon Poker said:
I agree with fundiver. We have middle pair with backdoor diamonds and we are open ended, but we are behind a ton of our villans value range - for this big of a bet, I think the correct play is to fold.

Howeveeeeeeeer.....

My first instinct is what the hell does our opponent do this with? Are they really that scared with AA? Shoving to protect them? They are generally only getting called by 2 pair or better here, why shove and risk going broke or getting no value? Is AQ really taking this line? Doubt it...most people play the nuts all trappy like. Bottom set scared on this board?

It just has my mind all over the place...its either a scared made vale hand, AK, AA, KT, JT, bottom set, maybe even QQ....oooooor, it's a marginal made hand, maybe an underpair, maybe they have QJ as well, a weak Kx type hand...

I'm super rolled for this $1.65 buy in and with the backdoor flush draw + straight draw combo...I think I am going with it here. Its early in the game, I can fire bullet #2 when I brick and when I win I am super stacked and setup for a deep run. That's my personal take on the hand - I do feel like we are behind something here...

All that being said I still think the correct play is to fold. We lose the minimum, sucks we dont get to realize our equity but we avoid the spot, fold and move on
Click to expand...

fundiver199 said:
I think, there are two options here. Either he is the kind of player, who goes “LOL I have the nuts, I am all in” without thinking about, if this is the best way to get paid. Or he is panicking about getting drawn out on. And because there is a flushdraw on board, even AQ could panic here.

If anything the range, I assigned him, is probably to wide. As you say, piling it in with an AA, AK type hand would be a massive overplay. But I still think, that is more likely than him piling it in with a pure draw. He might bet his Ac5c on the flop as a semibluff, but he would not go all in.
Click to expand...

I have to say - the logical side of my brain started to click the fold button - with a portion of what fundiver detailed fluttered across some of my brain nodes, and then,,, the "however" portion of my brain resisted the click and I called.
Jon - it's like you were there listening to me talk through the decision. :eek:
Essentially I said - I have to see what kind of player this is. I'm rolled for the rebuy - and can catch him on the rebound after I know a little bit more about how he plays.
For the record I put him on a smaller pocket pair, maybe TT, but I was wrong.

Sho nuff - opponent turns over A/Q

And here was the runout.

Also for the record - thought I could spike an Ace - never planned on that runout. :D
It all came back around though made the money then my flopped set of Aces were drawn out on by 22 hitting a straight on the river, by a player that - likes to chase, then last hand QQs beat by 66s.
 

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Jon Poker

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The fact that our opponent open shoved the nuts on the flop is a HUUUUGE mistake. When we make the fold he loses a TON of value here, if I were the opponent I would bet accordingly to get value from my flopped straight. The turn wouldn't change much for me, I would likely bet again figuring a full house would raise me - and the river I would fold if lead into and check back if checked to. Calling the raise and any flopped cbet we would have alllll the 1 pair and draw combos to continue here and for him to play AQ this way was a disaster and he could've lost much less by playing normal instead of playing scared.

Bad news once we make the call, poker gods decided to reward our courage with quads lol funny how that works isnt it?
 
Nr98

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fundiver199 said:
Pot is 855, you have around 4,700 left behind. This mean, he is betting around 5 times pot, and factoring in ICM you need around 50% equity to call. If we assign him a range consisting of made straights, sets, two pair, AA, AK, KQ, QQ, QJ and QT, you have around 34% equity. So for me this is a pretty clear fold. For this to become a profitable call, he need to have a lot of complete airball bluffs, and I just dont see that happening.
Click to expand...


Yeah don't lose any sleep over this. Even with the usual low stakes spazz factor (which is definitely there facing bets like this) you're not getting anywhere near the right odds facing a 6x jam.
 
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