$1.50 NLHE STT Turbo: AQ fold, call, or shove pre-flop?

A

AlexTheOwl

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 25/50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 14.26 BB (VPIP: 16.91, PFR: 13.67, 3Bet Preflop: 6.93, hands: 1,600)
SB: 17.32 BB (VPIP: 28.21, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 39)
Hero (BB): 35.8 BB
UTG: 91.18 BB (VPIP: 40.28, PFR: 16.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 222)
MP: 70.64 BB (VPIP: 17.69, PFR: 13.19, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 147)
CO: 40.8 BB (VPIP: 24.13, PFR: 17.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.65, Hands: 1,074)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦Q♠

UTG raises to 2.26 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 17.32 BB and is all-in, Hero?

9-handed Turbo SNG (5 minute blinds) on ACR.
3 Prizes:
50% ($6.75)
30% ($4.05)
20% ($2.70)

I have run this hand through ICMIZER's free version, and will share the results, but I'm interested in everyone's feedback first.
 
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AviCKter

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I put down the numbers, and know what the ranges look like, your range of re-shove {99+, AQs+, AKo} as per ICMizer, but it doesn't take the dynamics and player type in to consideration.

UTG is playing a bit loose, so you need to add a few more hands in his range, than what Nash dictates.
VPIP: 40.28, PFR: 16.11, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 222
Click to expand...

Although SB's 3-bet says 8.33 which when taken as a base-line would result in a very tight range and probably dictate you to re-shove with {TT+, AKs, AKo}. What these Stats doesn't show is the "player vs player" & "position vs position" (i.e. the dynamics of the game). Now if you see the scenario, UTG is playing a bit loose and SB knows that/or should know that, so we can take 8.33% as his 3-bet shove range or assume that he's adjusting correctly to the loose-play of UTG player and take the range ICM is giving i.e. 13%, as the baseline.
VPIP: 28.21, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 39
Click to expand...

So, if I give the UTG a range of 30%, rather than the 24% that Nash says, and keep the range of SB 3-bet shove of 13%, it shows that AQo is a slightly profitable play.

 
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AlexTheOwl

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Thanks for your thoughts on this Avi.

I made range adjustments similar to the ones you did in ICMizer - I rarely find the pre-set ranges they use to be a good estimation of player behavior in the micros - and came up with a similar result. Shoving was .2% better than folding.
Since we are dealing with range estimates here, I think that small difference essentially means either shoving or folding would be equally profitable.

I've practiced with ICM often enough that I feel confident with my decisions at the table in heads-up hands, but I was less sure about this multi-way hand.

Results:
UTG raises to 2.26 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 17.32 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 35.8 BB and is all-in, fold

Flop: (36.9 BB, 2 players) 3<font color='red'>♥</font> 3<font color='black'>♠</font> 9<font color='black'>♣</font>

Turn: (36.9 BB, 2 players) 5<font color='red'>♥</font>

River: (36.9 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='red'>♥</font>

SB shows 5<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='black'>♠</font> (Full House, Fives full of Threes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 76%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows A<font color='red'>♦</font> Q<font color='black'>♠</font> (One Pair, Threes)
(Pre 46%, Flop 24%, Turn 0%)
SB wins 36.9 BB
 
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