$1.50 NLHE STT: Straight Draw and Overs Against Bluffy Bet

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AlexTheOwl

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Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 50/100 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 17.01 BB
BTN: 30.98 BB (VPIP: 29.55, PFR: 6.98, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 44)
SB: 55.85 BB (VPIP: 40.54, PFR: 31.51, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)
BB: 16.55 BB (VPIP: 15.91, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 44)
UTG: 14.61 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 44)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣T♦

fold, Hero raises to 2.88 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 4.76 BB, Hero calls 1.88 BB

Flop: (10.02 BB, 2 players) J♣ Q♣5♥
BB bets 11.79 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 11.79 BB

Turn: (33.6 BB, 2 players) 6♥

River: (33.6 BB, 2 players) 4♦

9-handed Regular STT.

Pre-Flop:

BB has folded to C-Bets 3 out of 3 times.

What do you think about the steal attempt from the cutoff? My table image is pretty tight.

Was I right to call the 3-bet pre-flop? I was getting a good price, but could be dominated. BB has not shown himself to be especially aggressive, but seems like a good player who might get aggressive when the stack are low.

Flop:

Player has c-bet flop 2 out of 2 times. He could have a lot of cards here - Q, J, overpairs, underpairs, sets, draws, Ax hands that missed. The bet sizing means to me that BB wants me to fold. He's either protecting a made hand from flush and straight draws, or bluffing.

22BB in the pot and it's 12 BB to call.

I think this was a bad call, does anyone disagree?
 
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trent32la

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Preflop open size is too large, especially with the BB being so tight. My default is 2.1x here and 2.24x if the BB is defending a high% of the time. KTo would be the worst offsuit Kx I open here.

Flop I call, we have 11 outs the majority of the time here + BDFD, which is at least 40% equity and we need 35% to call off here.
 
oriole

oriole

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Not a bad call, but I'm guessing he had aces :D
 
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AlexTheOwl

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Preflop open size is too large, especially with the BB being so tight. My default is 2.1x here and 2.24x if the BB is defending a high% of the time. KTo would be the worst offsuit Kx I open here.

Flop I call, we have 11 outs the majority of the time here + BDFD, which is at least 40% equity and we need 35% to call off here.

Interesting point about raise size. I tend to use a higher standard raise size:
- to avoid "pricing in" calls from opponents
- because at the micros I am often ahead of callers. These players generally call too much. Bigger raises build bigger pots.
But by the middle stage of the tourney calling ranges have tightened. I should consider changing my standard raise size for this stage.

Here's why I think it was a bad call:
You say we have 11 outs ( 3 K, 4 A, 4 9's). So by the "rule of 4", that's about 44% equity, which from a strict equity perspective is enough to make the call. Plus there is the Back Door Flush Draw.

However, we need to discount some of those outs.
If villain is protecting a made hand, he may have AA, AQ, AJ, QQ, KK, or JJ. These are all consistent with his pre-flop 3-bet. If so, and the K comes, I still lose.
Most of the hands the villain would 3-bet with pre-flop contain Aces and Kings. There may only be 3 (or 2!) Aces and 2 (or 1) Kings left in the deck.
If villain is semi-bluffing with a flush draw and Ac or 9c comes, I still lose.

So let's say we have ~ 9 outs. By the "rule of four", about 36% equity. Still enough to call strictly from an equity perspective, but just barely.

However, there is a value to survival in a tournament. Five players remain, and three get paid.

If I call, there is about a 1/3 chance that I win. My chances to survive and to compete for the top prize are enhanced if I win. But most of the time I am out of the tournament.

If I fold, I have 12BB left. I am not too happy with that stack, but I have a decent chance of getting to the money.
The SB has a very high PFR. I can call or re-raise many of his raises and be ahead. He is the type of player who often knocks other players out and often gives all his chips away quickly, either of which is good for me.
The button is a calling station, I can maximize my value if I find a good hand against him.

I have no way to quantify this, but I think folding is more profitable.

Not a bad call, but I'm guessing he had aces :D

Aces were definitely consistent with his actions.
Villain was semi-bluffing with Ac8c, which was a smaller hand than I expected based on his stats and his 3-bet pre-flop. He must have thought I was very likely to fold pre.
I lost, High Card K to High Card A.
 
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