$1.50 NLHE STT: Good Spot for a Bluff?

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 100/200 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 24.81 BB (VPIP: 43.17, PFR: 9.77, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, hands: 159)
Hero (SB): 20.19 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥2♦

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) J♥5♦J♦
BB checks, Hero bets 3.75 BB, BB calls 3.75 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 5♣
BB checks, Hero bets 13.94 BB and is all-in



$1.50 Regular 6-Max SNG on ACR. $5.85 to the winner, $3.15 to 2nd place. Villain's WTSD is 31%.

Other than going in preflop with K2o it's a good bluff play, solid aggression after weakness from the BB that forces him to either fold or risk most of his stack. Solid play, hope it worked out for you!

I think it's a bad spot for a bluff. I think your preflop raise is too big, flop bet is too big and I don't think better hand is ever folding on the turn.

Thank you both for your thoughtful responses.

thatguy6793 said:

Other than going in preflop with K2o it's a good bluff play, solid aggression after weakness from the BB that forces him to either fold or risk most of his stack. Solid play, hope it worked out for you!

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Thanks. Heads-up on the button with 20BB, K2o is pretty decent I think? It's in the opening range in the link below.

Gabinho12345 said:

I think it's a bad spot for a bluff. I think your preflop raise is too big, flop bet is too big and I don't think better hand is ever folding on the turn.

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Raise and c-bet sizes seem pretty standard? Raise size is Upswing's recommended default, for example:

https://www.upswingpoker.com/heads-up-button-open-strategy-no-limit-hunl/

C-bet size is a little bit bigger than 2/3 pot, which is a commonly used size.

What sizes would you use, and why?

Better hands (and worse ones) are folding sometimes on the turn, the question is how often.

Villain called my c-bet, but that doesn't mean he has a pair or better. My c-bet on a paired low board looked like a c-bet on a paired low board. It told him nothing about my hand.
He knows I'm opening wide pre-flop. He could be floating, or thinking his Ace-high or King-high is the best hand (he'd be right). He could be on a flush draw, in which case I may be ahead. I think he folds all of those hands to my turn bet.

Those raise sizes are recommended for deeper stacks HU. With 20bb I would either limp or minraise depending on the opponent. On the flop on a paired board I would bet 1/3 pot. Yes, an ace will call your flop bet and fold to a shove on the turn but any ace should shove preflop, that's why I said that no better hands will fold on the turn.

Gabinho12345 said:

Those raise sizes are recommended for deeper stacks HU. With 20bb I would either limp or minraise depending on the opponent. On the flop on a paired board I would bet 1/3 pot. Yes, an ace will call your flop bet and fold to a shove on the turn but any ace should shove preflop, that's why I said that no better hands will fold on the turn.

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I have no limping range HU in tournaments, except against a maniac, for trapping. Not sure under what circumstances I would limp against the opponent in this hand.

There is logic to the idea that as stack sizes shrink relative to the blinds, min-raises become more difficult to call, and are therefore "big enough". At the micros players tend not to have this kind of situational awareness. I can't quantify it, but I think at this level that additional .5 BB is buying me enough extra folds, plus adding enough to pots that I win post-flop, to be worth it.

I've heard that c-bets have been shrinking online at higher stakes, but a 1/3 pot c-bet at this level is tossing chips out the window. It's likely to be called or raised by almost any 2 cards. If I'm ahead when I c-bet I want to build a big pot, and if I'm behind I want to induce a fold. The smaller size does neither here.

Any Ace should 3-bet shove all in with 20BB? I'm skeptical that this is true, Even if it is, at this level it doesn't happen on a regular basis.

Not having a limping range HU <25bb deep is a big mistake.

Regardless, this hand is a mess. Preflop should be opening smaller this deep HU (2-2.2x). Flop sizing is way too large. The times when a 75% pot cbet in a HU pot is appropriate is when you are deep stacked and/or the board is extremely wet. Neither of these qualify in this hand. On a J5Jfd flop our opponents calling range will be static and our range doesn’t need a lot of protection, so cbetting 25-35% pot is appropriate here.

Turn shove is awful regardless of your hand here, what exactly are you trying to fold out that beats you? Do you ever jam Jx here after betting 75% pot on the flop? Your opponent is never letting go of 5x or Jx here and Ax/pairs 3bet pre. Turn is a check with your entire range.

trent32la said:

Not having a limping range HU <25bb deep is a big mistake.

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I have no idea what I should limp. In my experience, generally people don't defend their BB often enough to punish my raises.

In this specific case, I only had a few hands heads-up against this villain, but his high VPIP, low PFR and 3-bet, and low WTSD means that he is likely to defend. But defend in the weakest possible way - call, then fold post-flop. I'm trying to punish this tendency with this bluff.

If I was being punished with 3-bets I'd have to change my ways, but I think what I am doing is effective. Maybe I am missing something?

I don't have anything to add to what I said about bet sizing in my response to Gabinho. I could be wrong, and I'd genuinely appreciate it if anyone wants to convince me that I am, directly or by pointing me to outside sources.

I have no doubt that you and Gabinho are correct at higher buy-ins.

trent32la said:

Turn shove is awful regardless of your hand here, what exactly are you trying to fold out that beats you? Do you ever jam Jx here after betting 75% pot on the flop? Your opponent is never letting go of 5x or Jx here and Ax/pairs 3bet pre. Turn is a check with your entire range.

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I probably make a half-pot bet here if I actually have a full house. But my shove is just a little bit bigger than a pot-sized bet. It should look like a reasonable bet against an opponent who seems to be in a calling mood. This is not a player who is thinking deeply.

"Ax/pairs 3bet pre" is where we disagree. They should, but they don't. I'd put some Kx in his range on the turn too, and draws with a broadway card.

I don't think it was a good move from your end, especially because BB called bet of 3.75 BB smoothly, you should be more carefull in the future in situations like that regardless of the outcome in this particular situation. It's more like, good spot to kick yourself from the tournament. Your bet on the flop is good but on the turn, not so

trent32la said:

Your opponent is never letting go of 5x or Jx here and Ax/pairs 3bet pre.

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Look at his stats
BB: 24.81 BB (VPIP: 43.17, PFR: 9.77, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 159)

He's extremely passive, isn't going to 3-bet without the premium. Even if I give him a range of say {88-22,ATs-A2s,KJs-K2s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,AJo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o-86o,76o-75o,65o}, which is around 43% mark (495 combos).

Let's look at the number of hands that floats/calls the flop:
{88-66, 44-22, 5h5s, KQs, 76s, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, QcJc, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Td9d, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, Kd7d, Qd7d, Js7s, Jc7c, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, Ah5h, As5s, Kh5h, Ks5s, Qh5h, Qs5s, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6h5h, 6s5s, Ad4d, Kd4d, 5h4h, 5s4s, Ad3d, Kd3d, Ad2d, Kd2d, ATo-A6o, A4o-A2o, KQo, KTo, QTo, AdJs, AdJc, AhJs, AhJc, AsJc, AcJs, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5h, Ac5h, Ac5s, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJc, KcJs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJc, QcJs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5s, 7s5h, 7c5h, 7c5s, 6d5h, 6d5s, 6h5s, 6s5h, 6c5h, 6c5s}; 283 hands or 25.09%. Against that range we've 21.60% equity.

Hands he cannot fold: {5h5s, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, QcJc, JsTs, JcTc, Js9s, Jc9c, Js8s, Jc8c, Js7s, Jc7c, Ah5h, As5s, Kh5h, Ks5s, Qh5h, Qs5s, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6h5h, 6s5s, 5h4h, 5s4s, AdJs, AdJc, AhJs, AhJc, AsJc, AcJs, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5h, Ac5h, Ac5s, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJc, KcJs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJc, QcJs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5s, 7s5h, 7c5h, 7c5s, 6d5h, 6d5s, 6h5s, 6s5h, 6c5h, 6c5s}, which is a total of 79 combos or 7%. Against this range, we're close to 0% equity.

EV(bluff shove river) = .720*12.5+.028*(-13.94) = +5.0968
EV(check) = .2160*12.5 = +2.7

Off course, you can tweak around and come up with a range that will always assume the worst and make the play bad, in the hindsight. Hope it makes sense.

Limping

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Although I've my own analysis for it, why I keep telling not to limp or having a limp strategy (just messes your EV in the long run, you've to make so many post-flop adjustments just to recover it). This article sums it up on a broader level: Okay, So Limping Is Bad – But Why?. Check it out.

That said, I do have a limping range in B-v-B situation and have the necessary adjustments in place.

EQUITY/COMBO ERRORS

AviCKter said:

Against that range we've 21.60% equity.

Hands he cannot fold: {5h5s, KsJs, KcJc, QsJs, QcJc, JsTs, JcTc, Js9s, Jc9c, Js8s, Jc8c, Js7s, Jc7c, Ah5h, As5s, Kh5h, Ks5s, Qh5h, Qs5s, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6h5h, 6s5s, 5h4h, 5s4s, AdJs, AdJc, AhJs, AhJc, AsJc, AcJs, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5h, Ac5h, Ac5s, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJc, KcJs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJs, QhJc, QsJc, QcJs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5s, 7s5h, 7c5h, 7c5s, 6d5h, 6d5s, 6h5s, 6s5h, 6c5h, 6c5s}, which is a total of 79 combos or 7%. Against this range, we're close to 0% equity.

EV(bluff shove river) = .720*12.5+.028*(-13.94) = +5.0968
EV(check) = .2160*12.5 = +2.7

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CC didn't register my edits.

Against the floating range {88-66, 44-22, 5h5s, ATs-A6s, A4s-A2s, KQs, KsJs, QsJs, KdTd, QdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Jh8h, Js8s, Td8d, 9d8d, Kd7d, Qd7d, Jh7h, Js7s, Td7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Kd6d, Qd6d, 8d6d, Ah5h, As5s, Kh5h, Ks5s, Qh5h, Qs5s, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6h5h, 6s5s, Kd4d, 5h4h, 5s4s, Kd3d, Kd2d, ATo-A6o, A4o-A2o, KQo, KTo, QTo, AdJs, AhJs, AcJs, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5h, Ac5h, Ac5s, KdJs, KhJs, KcJs, QdJs, QhJs, QcJs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5s, 7s5h, 7c5h, 7c5s, 6d5h, 6d5s, 6h5s, 6s5h, 6c5h, 6c5s}, 283 combos, we have 21.40% equity.

And the combos that cannot fold: 59 combos (5.23%) {5h5s, KsJs, QsJs, JhTh, JsTs, Jh9h, Js9s, Jh8h, Js8s, Jh7h, Js7s, Ah5h, As5s, Kh5h, Ks5s, Qh5h, Qs5s, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6h5h, 6s5s, 5h4h, 5s4s, AdJs, AhJs, AcJs, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5h, Ac5h, Ac5s, KdJs, KhJs, KcJs, QdJs, QhJs, QcJs, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, 7d5h, 7d5s, 7h5s, 7s5h, 7c5h, 7c5s, 6d5h, 6d5s, 6h5s, 6s5h, 6c5h, 6c5s}
EV(bluff shove turn) = 0.7915*12.5+0.2085*(-13.94) = +6.987
EV(check) = .2140*12.5 = +2.675

P.S. It keeps getting more and more messier, the more correction I make. Sorry about that. I'm not a PRO by any means, and I can be wrong.

AviCKter said:

Although I've my own analysis for it, why I keep telling not to limp or having a limp strategy (just messes your EV in the long run, you've to make so many post-flop adjustments just to recover it). This article sums it up on a broader level: Okay, So Limping Is Bad – But Why?. Check it out.

That said, I do have a limping range in B-v-B situation and have the necessary adjustments in place.

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To be clear, I understand why always raising HU, when opening a very broad range from the button with stacks under 25BB, is extremely exploitable.

All your opponent needs to do is 3-bet the top 50% of his hands. You'll be left with a choice between folding a lot of raised pots pre-flop, or seeing a lot of flops with a big pot while behind your opponent's range. Of course occasionally you will have a strong hand that welcomes the 3-bet, but probably not often enough?

But I've very rarely seen this exploited in the games I play. Part of this is the skill level at the micros, and part of it is my tight-ish table image and the fact that HU at the end of SNGs usually doesn't last long.

AviCKter said:

It keeps getting more and more messier, the more correction I make. Sorry about that. I'm not a PRO by any means, and I can be wrong.

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I appreciate the effort! It quantifies the estimates I was making when playing this hand.

I think his range may be a bit more narrow than 43% when calling a raise pre-flop, even when HU against my frequent button raises.
But given the big gap between the EV results, I imagine that even if we give him 35%, which feels like the lowest reasonable number, shoving is going to be the most +EV move.

BTW, for anyone curious about results, he folded and did not show.

AlexTheOwl said:

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 100/200 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 24.81 BB (VPIP: 43.17, PFR: 9.77, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 159)
Hero (SB): 20.19 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥2♦

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) J♥5♦J♦
BB checks, Hero bets 3.75 BB, BB calls 3.75 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 5♣
BB checks, Hero bets 13.94 BB and is all-in



$1.50 Regular 6-Max SNG on ACR. $5.85 to the winner, $3.15 to 2nd place. Villain's WTSD is 31%.

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Hey Alex..I tend to agree with trent32la about this hand almost 100%...Even i really consider you as a very good micro stakes player,I think its a bad play..First of all you should have limping range in HU in not deep stack situations so you can play all your range better..There will be many spots that with limping-stabing you will take them postflop,risking the minimum with your ''trashy'' hands..Other spots that you will extract value if you hit the board..Finally,limping-folding also investing the minimum preflop if board is totally bad for you..Also putting in this limp range,hands with good play ability and few monsters you make this range way stronger,in the scenario that villain adjusts his play and starts to abuse you by raising..So you have the additional option of limping-calling (with position) or even limping-shoving making your villain call you lighter than he should as he would think that you always raise the good hands..About this flop i would cbet 30-40%..About turn shove i think the only hands you make Villain fold are the bad Ax+ (A2o-A4o,A6-A9o and maybe some low suited Ax)that maybe villain didnt 3bet them and as i know from my experience many in low stakes dont 3bet all of them..These are not few combos but the problem is that a normal villain can even call u with Ace high,thinking that in this spot you dont have value turn shoving range..Almost nobody would shove turn with Jx+,making fold all Villain's hands that has them dead(maybe 90% of his range) and waiting get value from specific 5x hands,something which you could do by river in almost every river card..So your hand is polarized to a pure bluff or a ''bad played'' nuts with chances of 1st option much bigger..So by checking all ur range on turn is the best option by far.
PS:Its just a bad play..all we make tones of them daily..

rikoberto said:

Hey Alex..I tend to agree with trent32la about this hand almost 100%...Even i really consider you as a very good micro stakes player,I think its a bad play..

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Thanks rikoberto, but I really am not! I am a little worse than break-even on ACR.

On your other points, I know you and trent are thinking players, but I still respectfully disagree.

The main differences of opinion in this thread come down to exploitative play vs. unexploitable play. I am trying to exploit this player's weakness, and the tendencies of micros players in general.

Exploiting other players makes me exploitable.
Big raises and c-bets are exploitable.
Never limping HU with these stacks is exploitable.
Having a range on the turn that is mostly bluffs is exploitable.

I agree with these points 100%. But it doesn't matter how exploitable I am, if no one is going to exploit me.

OP, your flop bet is too big. You are wrong about betting bigger. In this situation when you bet flop you should have very polarized range: monsters and pure bluffs. Imagine you have jack in your hand. Would you bet 3/4 of pot on the flop? That would be very bad, because now there is only one Jack in the deck, and he would fold a lot of king highs and overcard backdoor flushdraws, which you don't want. You want him to call with those hands. He supposed to fold hands that completely missed this flop and when you bluff with 1/3 pot bet, you will achieve that. You don't need to bluff with bigger size.

Also, K2 is not a pure bluff, you don't need to bluff with this hand on the flop, because you have some showdown equity. Nor your hand has chance to improve. It is better to bluff with hands that have zero showdown equity, but have some chance to improve, some smaller connected hands with backdoor flushdraw maybe.

When you bet so big on the flop and he calls, I would give up honestly. Most of his range should be pocket pairs and Jx, 5x hands, and with those stacks he shouldn't have much to fold on the turn.