$1.50 NLHE STT: Final three - how would you have played this hand?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/10/8

The bubble burst a couple of hands ago. Villain is TAG and definitely not a bad player - those HUD stats are from 223 hands.

pokerstars, $1.29 + $0.21 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (10 ante) - 3 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

BU: 4,956 (62 bb)
SB (Hero): 3,294 (41 bb)
BB: 5,250 (66 bb)

Pre-Flop: (150) Hero is SB with Q♦ J♠
BTN calls 80, Hero calls 40, BB checks

Flop: (270) T♥ J♣ 9♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 135, BTN calls 135, Hero raises to 810, BB raises to 5,160 (all-in), BU folds, Hero calls 2,394 (all-in)

I think a smooth call on the flop is out of the question after the BTN calls, so I like the check-raise play. After that, you are sitting with what? 30ish BB? With top pair and an open-ender, I think you have to put it in. BB's range can be literally anything, seeing as how he checked his option pre-flop. 78 is very possible, but so are hands like 8Tc, Q9, QT, JT. I think he raises all pairs that would have made sets pre-flop, as well as hands like KQ and QQ. I'm calling here.

I would probably lead the flop and just call any raises. As played, I'd definitely just call the flop bet. Check-raising bloats the pot out of position and knocks out lesser value hands. As played facing the all-in, I'd call it off given that price.

pre: you have the worst position so better decision is raise 320-400.
flop: you have top pair and oesd. villain have many better hands (top pair with better kicker, double pairs, better SD with K and same hands with FD so call flop. If we didn`t get better on turn its hard fold.

I would usually be raising here pre at these depths.

Flop x/r seems like severe overplay to me overall. There aren't really worse hands that will get it in with us, and on this board texture reopening the betting is very likely to result in us facing another raise imo, which is what we see actually happen.

We have plenty of equity to just call the flop bet and continue from there.

Odds Calculator

LuisBoaC said:

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/10/8

The bubble burst a couple of hands ago. Villain is TAG and definitely not a bad player - those HUD stats are from 223 hands.

PokerStars, $1.29 + $0.21 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (10 ante) - 3 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

BU: 4,956 (62 bb)
SB (Hero): 3,294 (41 bb)
BB: 5,250 (66 bb)

Pre-Flop: (150) Hero is SB with Q♦ J♠
BTN calls 80, Hero calls 40, BB checks

Flop: (270) T♥ J♣ 9♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 135, BTN calls 135, Hero raises to 810, BB raises to 5,160 (all-in), BU folds, Hero calls 2,394 (all-in)

Click to expand...

Thank you for posting.

This is a great hand to experiment with the cardschat odds calculator.

I entered QdJs vs villain Qc10c villain is the favorite
villain QhJh villain is the favorite but only 4% to win rest are ties
villain KsJh 68%
villain AcQc 53% win 10% tie
villain 87off 68%
villain j10off 58%

Try more hands and then let us know what you think about your check raise?

One of the posters did not believe any sets were possible but 18/10 suggest it is possible some of the time that this BB could check all pairs that make sets here. If it were 18/16 or 18/14 I would expect 99+ raise from BB almost always.

Hope this helps