$1.50 NLHE STT: 9-max Bubble push/fold/ICM?

L

LuisBoaC

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 17, 2017
Total posts
234
Awards
1
Chips
44
Villain is TAG and has been especially tight since we reached the bubble. SNG Wiz gives this as a tight fold but ICMizer says the push was correct. I must admit I don't fully understand the info ICMizer gives me and how the 2 different programs can disagree so often, is it to do with the ranges they assign? If anyone can point me in the direction of a source that might help me here it'd be much appreciated.
Anyways, push/fold here? Or call??!
Thanks.

pokerstars, $1.29 + $0.21 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (10 ante) - 4 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

RED0922 (UTG): 5,155 (64 bb)
luisboac (BU): 1,786 (22 bb)
ELVIS137 (SB): 780 (10 bb)
lavrino (BB): 5,779 (72 bb)

Pre-Flop: (160) Hero (luisboac) is BTN with A K
RED0922 (UTG) raises to 240, luisboac (BU) 3-bets to 1,776 (all-in), 2 players fold, RED0922 (UTG) calls 1,536

Flop: (3,712) 8 6 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (3,712) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (3,712) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 3,712

Showdown:
luisboac (BU) shows A K (high card, Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 71%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 89%, River: 0%)

RED0922 (UTG) shows Q K (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 29%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 11%, River: 100%)

RED0922 (UTG) wins 3,712
 
F

FailX21

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2018
Total posts
145
Chips
0
If the villain is really tight, he most likely has a premium hand like yours or a pair. So, going all-in is basically a flip if he calls. Knowing he is very tight at the moment, he has 3x your stack and he raised, he is likely to call. Since you're the one at risk, I would fold at this point, but I would hate it.

That said, I'm not a pro player, but that's my opinion :) Usually in this kind of position on the bubble, I would only play AA and KK against much bigger stacks than mine. Sometimes AKs, but not always.
 
8bod8

8bod8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 3, 2017
Total posts
1,492
Chips
0
My limited experience is indeed:

On the bubble, or other big improvemenet in payout:

- you can open-raise with good hand
- fold to any action
As I understand ICM in your situation you should fold AK, as you are shortstacked.
 
nml

nml

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 9, 2016
Total posts
139
Chips
0
A TAG is going to call you A LOT, especially relative to the average player. He’s unlikely to raise out of position with junk, so your equity here isn’t great.

ICM is definitely going to tell you to fold - if he had folded, you should definitely open, possibly shove. A coin flip when you are on the bubble isn’t advisable (especially with 22 BBs)

Think of it this way, let’s say he doesn’t get the Q and you double up - what changes? You are still pretty far behind the chip leader, no one is eliminated so you are still on the bubble. Whereas if you lose (as you did), you’re out and out of the money
 
L

LuisBoaC

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 17, 2017
Total posts
234
Awards
1
Chips
44
Thanks all. nml, I'm inclined to agree with you but I do wonder; is there an argument for pushing here as an attempt to place better than third? Instead of trying to coast into the money with a stack considerably shorter than my two opponents'?
 
W

WiZZiM

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 28, 2009
Total posts
5,008
Chips
0
i think your jam is fine.

HOWEVER

its also a very high risk play that will lead to more variance.

another way to play this hand is to simply call preflop and play the hand postflop. it's not ideal as our SPR is pretty low, however it's totally playable. This also allows us to see what the blinds will do, it's possible to either just fold preflop if the BB jams over, or get a nice multiway pot going with a great hand that has a lot of potential postflop.

in regards to the ICM in this hand, the results you are getting from the two differant ICM calcs are due to you inputting slightly differant data. They are also calculated slightly differently, but it should be pretty close. Regardless, ICM will never like this spot as you have 22BB vs a range which wont raise/fold very much, so unless you dominate a heavy part of his range or unless he folds a decent % of his range the numbers wont be ideal for you.

Overall i think i just flat call and play position here postflop. If i had to guess i would think this is either slightly +ev to shove, or its decently negative EV, depending on the exact range of hands this guy raise/folds raise/calls. Since its low and he has a bigger stack, and players tend to overplay big but not monster hands i would think we dominate enough of his range to make jamming fine.
 
Andrew Popov

Andrew Popov

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 21, 2015
Total posts
2,845
Awards
4
Chips
132
You could just call preflop and continue to act on the circumstances. The bet of the villain, or your bet on the missed - even if the board is clearly not suitable for anyone.
Pre-flop all-in is a risk that is not needed on the bubble.
 
A

Ambur

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 14, 2015
Total posts
441
Chips
0
3bet AI is not wise aprox 1.8k effective (with information provided), but i do not blame. imo

call or 3bet/call preflop. imo

In general im calling preflop most of time IP.
 
nml

nml

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 9, 2016
Total posts
139
Chips
0
Thanks all. nml, I'm inclined to agree with you but I do wonder; is there an argument for pushing here as an attempt to place better than third? Instead of trying to coast into the money with a stack considerably shorter than my two opponents'?


Using an ICM calculator with a 50/30/20 split, I have your stack valued at $2.39. If you were to double up, it would go to $3.28. Adding just the blinds, it goes to $2.59.

Now you probably have some fold equity here. Let’s say he raises with 13% of hands (77+, ATo+, K9s+, A8s+, and lots of broadway). We could reasonably see him folding 99 and less and everything non suited without an A, and probably A8s, A9s, K9s, QTs. That gives you a 37% chance of him folding. And your equity is roughly 60% from the remaining hands.

So the math is

(-2.39 x .63 x .4) + (.2 x .37) + (.89 x .63 x .60) = -.19

First parentheses is getting called and losing, second is if he folds, and third is getting called and winning.

Fold equity may be slightly less - he could think you are trying to bluff him off. His raise range from UTG might be tighter too. Both of those things would hurt this EV even more.

There’s definitely reasons to call here - if he was loose, if he’s passive, if he was short stack and you put him on a bluff. But a TAG player makes this shove not as valuable as it might be otherwise.
 
Nathan Smith

Nathan Smith

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 17, 2017
Total posts
224
Chips
0
I think your jam is fine - you got called by worse and lost - end of story. You want to replay this hand like this for years and you will print money.
 
BnaD

BnaD

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 7, 2018
Total posts
206
Chips
0
4x open from UTG on the bubble. I'm just taking a flop here and trying to make something nutted. Focusing on making the money and you're in a good spot. He is likely to give up on this flop or turn if you play it smart you can steal.
 
toots babos

toots babos

ex-tornament grinder
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 19, 2014
Total posts
3,869
Awards
16
Chips
109
if you're playing to win then it's a clear shove but if you're playing to make money then it's a fold given the fact there's a player there with only 10BB's remaining
 
Folding in Poker
Top