$1.50 NLHE MTT: Bold bluff with nut flush draw blocker

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ninoverm

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Some really interesting spots in this hand, and I'm pretty sure I misplayed multiple streets here. Villain was a very good player for micro stakes. Didn't go to showdown once yet, so villain had no information on me except for numbers of hands played/bet sizes.

Call pre is close, but I think the winning play. Pretty bad implied odds, but I don't think you can fold an okay king in the BB to a minraise from the hijack.

Flop puts me in an awkward spot already though. Would've probably folded if I had Ks6d or Kc6d instead of Kh6d, but the back door nut flush just about made it a call. He was good enough to bluff here. Was looking to donk lead shove into him on heart turns and had some other plans on other turns. Probably check-fold on blanks. Not sure if a call to this pretty big bet was the right play though.

Jd made things pretty interesting. If he was betting for value on the flop, his hand likely shrinked to marginal showdown value. If I had a ten here, I would lead out thinking it would go check-check almost always. Having Kh6h would be so much better here though. By betting here I probably have too many bluffs. On the other side: my opponent is good enough to even fold AQ by the river. So my question on the turn: do I wanna rep the 10 or give up on this hand?

Looking at sizing: afterwards I regret not betting 190-200 instead of 245, as SPR became pretty awkward on the river after he called. Was looking to continue on most rivers, especially hearts.

River came 7h. Have to continue here after betting the turn. Considering I actually shouldn't lead out with my Kh6d on the turn, my bluffs only consist of some weird QdXd. Feel like he would fold almost any ace here, even two pairs. Could only call here with AT or some weird Jh9h or Th9h.

My question: is it best to give up here on the turn or was my bluff good?


poker stars $1.29+$0.21 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds + t6 - 9 players -

UTG+1: t2817 M = 21.84
UTG+2: t2547 M = 19.74
MP1: t2489 M = 19.29
MP2: t1099 M = 8.52
CO: t1852 M = 14.36
BTN: t815 M = 6.32
SB: t1955 M = 15.16
Hero (BB): t1779 M = 13.79
UTG: t3557 M = 27.57

Pre Flop: (t129) Hero is BB with K :heart: 6 :diamond:
4 folds, MP2 raises to t100, 3 folds, Hero calls t50

Flop: (t279) Q :heart: A :heart: K :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t176, Hero calls t176

Turn: (t631) J :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t245, MP2 calls t245

River: (t1121) 7 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets t1252 all in, MP2 ...
 
SuzdalDEcor

SuzdalDEcor

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bad bluff imho. His stack after turn = 10bb< right? he must call with any T or AJ. But you cant check river... i think you must check turn behind and bluff on the river
 
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ninoverm

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bad bluff imho. His stack after turn = 10bb< right? he must call with any T or AJ. But you cant check river... i think you must check turn behind and bluff on the river

Can't check turn behind. I'm out of position. I'm leading out into him, as explained in the first post.

Obviously he should be calling with tens here on the river, but I have way more tens in my range. He has AT... And that's it. Maybe Th9h. JT would bet smaller on the flop. I can have AT, KT, QT, JT (all both suited and off-suit) and Th9h-Th2h.

Don't think he should/would call with AJ, AQ or AK on the river.
 
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ninoverm

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fold preflop. imo

Really close. If his raise was 2.4x+ I would've folded without even thinking about it. But defending K6o here is definitely a winning play, just some awkward reversed implied odds.

Any opinions on the rest of the hand? I'm open. :)
 
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Ambur

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Any opinions on the rest of the hand? I'm open. :)

Sorry i just do not defend in this situation my BB, it just lead you in ugly spots like this. And on flop (as played) i would just check/fold to avoid further bad desicions.
 
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ninoverm

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Sorry i just do not defend in this situation my BB, it just lead you in ugly spots like this. And on flop (as played) i would just check/fold to avoid further bad desicions.

In that case I suggest being a bit more sticky, otherwise you'll get pushed around too much
 
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Might work. I definitely wouldn't be happy calling even with 2 pair in his shoes, so it depends on the guy, but if as you said he is solid and not giving away easy chips then it's likely a good shove. As you said, he has way more Ax in his range than suited heart connectors, and a 10 would (I think???) raise the turn, so I'd say you'd get enough folds to make it worth it. He has played it exactly how I'd play a big A, not that that's saying much though.
 
Omahahahaha

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So there is a 6 chip ante?

Preflop we are getting 4.34:1 to defend. If our opponent is opening 13% of hands we should have 31.29% equity against his range.


Hold'em Simulation ?
249,996,384 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Equity Wins Ties

Kh6d 31.29% 76,542,608 3,354,582

13% 68.71% 170,099,194 3,354,582



So you need 18.72% equity to stack off getting 4.34:1. Obviously we're not all in but I think that looking at equity can give you a decent idea about whether or not you should play in a situation. Our hand will have both implied odds and reverse implied odds.


Flop comes AKQ w/ two hearts and you c/c which looks good.

I think give up on the turn is best.
 
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ninoverm

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So there is a 6 chip ante?



Preflop we are getting 4.34:1 to defend. If our opponent is opening 13% of hands we should have 31.29% equity against his range.





Hold'em Simulation ?

249,996,384 trials (Exhaustive)

HandEquityWinsTies



Kh6d31.29%76,542,6083,354,582



13%68.71%170,099,1943,354,582







So you need 18.72% equity to stack off getting 4.34:1. Obviously we're not all in but I think that looking at equity can give you a decent idea about whether or not you should play in a situation. Our hand will have both implied odds and reverse implied odds.





Flop comes AKQ w/ two hearts and you c/c which looks good.



I think give up on the turn is best.



Thanks for your calculations, your thoughts make sense. Check-fold seems absolutely fine on the turn, just decided to be frisky in this case.

Got my opponent to fold OTR after a long tank. The way he was playing I'm pretty sure I moved him off an ace.
 
Omahahahaha

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Check-fold seems absolutely fine on the turn, just decided to be frisky in this case.

Yeah. I mean you should be bluffing some % of the time; never bluffing is a mistake. But generally I do like to have much weaker hands when I try to bluff because people don't like to fold strong hands. So I would much rather bluff with just high card than with second pair. Very tough to make anyone ever fold top pair or better.
 
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