$1.10 NLHE STT: Does ICM help justify this call?

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Im pretty clueless about ICM. I mean I know what it is and that it equates your chips to real money value, but Im not sure how to use it to make decisions..

Im figuring theres a good chance he has two pair when he shoves this turn so I figure I have 25%(1:3) equity on this pot for my FD and gutter draw. and I'm looking at paying 1:2 so cant quite justify the call by pot odds. but then I thought of it in the sense that knocking him out guarantees me 30% of the prize pool and puts me in a great position to take 50% of the prize pool. but if i loose i still take 20% of the prize pool...

is there a simple way to roughly estimate ICM and compare it to your equity to figure whether or not a call is justified?

9$ prize pool
pay structure is the standard 50%, 30%, 20%


iPoker - $1+$0.10|<> NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 9.91 BB (VPIP: 12.07, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, hands: 58)
Hero (SB): 19.13 BB
BB: 15.97 BB (VPIP: 32.14, PFR: 22.64, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 58)

3 players post ante of 0.1 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.8 BB) Hero has J:diamond: 9:diamond:

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.3 BB, 2 players) K:diamond: Q:diamond: 6:spade:
Hero bets 1.67 BB, BB raises to 4.33 BB, Hero calls 2.67 BB

Turn: (12.97 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
Hero checks, BB bets 9.53 BB, Hero calls 9.53 BB

River: (32.03 BB, 2 players) A:diamond:

Hero shows J:diamond: 9:diamond: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 44%, Turn 36%)
BB shows 7:diamond: K:spade: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 54%, Flop 56%, Turn 64%)
Hero wins 32.03 BB
 
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WiZZiM

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this isn't really an ICM decision. it usually deals with preflop shove/fold type hands.

however we can use ICM logic to help us in these spots. to cut a long story short, ICM will add a tax that you have to pay when you call all in or shove all in. That is the amount of virtual $ that gets distributed to other players at the table without them doing anything, a small % goes to each, so overall with you being in the hand you pay a tax to do so.

Therefore you need a stronger range of hands to be able to call off or jam profitably in terms of $EV.

that said, this is more of a poor line choice than an icm decision.

raising against these types of players preflop is questionable, if you havent already, try limping against them to see what they will do, alot of the time they will just auto raise you which is fine, but test the waters asap so you know for higher blind levels. If they let you limp, you have another avenue to pursue against him.

were top in chips, so we can use that as leverage vs anyone at the table, but particularly the middle stacked player, in theory. However alot of players at these stakes will not really follow this logic and will call off regardless.

anyways, before i babble on here, you should be the guy putting him to the decision for all of his chips, you have two avenues to make money then, by him folding or him calling and losing, and in terms of icm he will generally have to call with a much tighter range as it's his tournament life on the line here.

so the decision point here is really on the flop, calling off is fine if you have a plan for the turn as he will only have 9bb left on that turn. but in general i'm either folding this flop or i'm rejamming over and putting the decision on him, which by the looks of it he's got a Kx type hand and he aint folding.

So with that knowledge, check/calling the turn is about the worst idea we can do here, we take on the risk, we lose folding equity completely, the only thing we really do is let him continue bluffing if we had the best hand all along, but that is likely to be a pretty small amount of the time.

since he's pretty aggressive and it looks like we're ITM 3 handed, i'm ok with going with it here so i'd likely just jam it on the flop.
 
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WiZZiM

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if something doesnt make sense just ask me, really tired when i was writing this.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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That makes sense for the most part
So essentially we're paying a tax because we're giving the 3rd guy not in the hand a chance to secure a higher payout and he doesn't have to take any of the risk.

And I see what you mean about jamming the flop. Based on the rule of 4 and 2 we probably have more equity on the flop and since we're calling off the turn anyway were not really getting a better price by calling the raise on the flop.
 
Talden

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I think if you Jam the flop, you then put villain on the decision to fold his remaining 13.8ish BB. Therefore you have gained FE. And another way to win the pot. Imo it's a lot scarier calling a shove for my tourney life than it is trying to get to a showdown, even if by river I'm all in. There's my .02 , so if I got something wrong, wiz can correct me and we both learn. Lol I'm still trying to learn this damm game also. BTW, at these stakes I've noticed that when ITM, people slack off and start calling light, have you?
 
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WiZZiM

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oh ya for sure people overadjust and go crazy once ITM, which is why i figure he's calling here more often than not. plus his stats indicate he's gonna be a bit looser than average, it all points to him playing wide ranges in general.

one of the biggest leaks i fixed in my 9 man game was 3 handed, knowing that there is still a mini bubble in play was very beneficial as i used to be one of those guys who went hyper aggro as soon as the bubble burst.
 
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