$1.10 NLHE MTT: KK with an Ace on the flop

Alucard

Alucard

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pokerstars - 40/80 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 106.37 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 24)
UTG+1: 28.64 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 51.17 BB (VPIP: 88.89, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP+1: 37.5 BB
MP+2: 43.41 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 70)
CO: 73.27 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 24)
Hero (BTN): 98.42 BB
SB: 85.9 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
BB: 39.12 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has Kc Kh
UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, MP calls 2 BB, MP+1 calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 16 BB, fold, fold

Flop : (42.62 BB, 2 players) 3c Tc Ac
UTG bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

Turn : (82.62 BB, 2 players) 2d
UTG bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

River : (108.62 BB, 2 players) 7d
UTG bets 55.25 BB and is all-in, Hero?

How should I play from the beginning? Is the squeeze too big?
 
A

AviCKter

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My personal sizing would be 10bb (i.e. 3x+Callers).

Could we see the flop, turn & river aggression factor for the Villain? (check in pokertracker)

Analyzing without any info:
Pre-flop: I would bet a little smaller, I don't want to chase out opponents. 10bb is enough in my opinion.

Flop: He Donk-leads 1/2 Pot, which is weird and quite honestly, easy to read. Right now, I think he has some A. Some A-rags. So a call here is fine. Given that his stats doesn't indicate a player (calling station) who's going to fold to a semi-bluff re-raise. And you do have a lot of equity with your nut flush draw, even if you're behind.

Turn: He bets 13 in a pot of 82bb. Villain's range: {A9-A2}. Getting 7:1, a call is fine.

River: He shoves 47bb eff. I think he's screaming I have A7. I have A7.
Fold. Next hand.
 
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Alucard

Alucard

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Don't know how to find the AF.
And I folded
 
A

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Don't know how to find the AF.
And I folded

Go to Pokertracker, click on "Play Poker"->"View Today's Hands"-> Double left click ->"Replay Hand" -> Click on Villain's stat, if it's a hand from today's game.
Else, go to "View Stats"-> find the tournament ->find that hand ->Double left click ->"Replay Hand"-> Click on Villain's stat.

You'll be able to see it.

I'm asking to check that, so as to confirm my read that he's a "Calling Station". If you see his aggression factor isn't high, then he's a "Calling Station", i.e. even if you try the semi-bluff the flop, and all-in bluff on the turn, he won't fold. But if you see that his aggression factor are high, then he's a "Maniac". Then this strategy might work.
 
Peppinotom

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I would have played similar in earlier days, for sure I would even have paid to see if it's really A7. :rolleyes: Nowadays I don't play KK that aggressive, because I get 95% the A on the Flop. I Check or call KK most of the times and see what comes up, just as it was a smaller pocket pair. If A shows up, I clean the field by myself, and get out.
 
Alucard

Alucard

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I would have played similar in earlier days, for sure I would even have paid to see if it's really A7. :rolleyes: Nowadays I don't play KK that aggressive, because I get 95% the A on the Flop. I Check or call KK most of the times and see what comes up, just as it was a smaller pocket pair. If A shows up, I clean the field by myself, and get out.

This is a very bad play
 
AlexGrinStar

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24 hands - it's not enough to adequately assess the game of the opponent...
but I think the fold is correct for such an action...
 
Alucard

Alucard

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Ok here are the stats

Flop AF - 1.33 frequency -44
Turn - 1.33 50
River - infinite. 100

Can't say much cause of a small sample
 
A

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24 hands - it's not enough to adequately assess the game of the opponent...
but I think the fold is correct for such an action...

How many hands do you consider to be enough for tournaments?
For me, its around 25-30, to make an opinion. And for me to change my opinion, I need concrete evidence.

Ok here are the stats

Flop AF - 1.33 frequency -44
Turn - 1.33 50
River - infinite. 100

Can't say much cause of a small sample

Yeah, small sample, that's true. But with the limited stats we have, he's leaning towards a Loose, Aggressive style. I was basing my ranging on the mere fact that he's a Calling station i.e. becomes passive on the flop, but his range widens with this kind of stats, maybe {T7, 45, 22, 77, 73, 72 etc.}. So I think you could evaluate the EV for [Semi-bluff raise on the flop/bluff all-in on the turn].

That said, I think at this stage of the tournament (early), I would have much rather not taken that kind of aggressive approach. I would have played the way you played it. But let's say I met this kind of stats in the mid-late stages, the strategy might have leaned towards the other option.
 
Peppinotom

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This is a very bad play
No Joke, I lost three out of three today, one time pocket Aces, one time smaller pair hits Thrips, one time all in and Ace on the Flop.
Seems to be my personal nightmare hand, don't take my comments in decision ;)
 
Diegol

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I don't like at all the 18bb size, i think i would go with 9 or 10BB because you're playing just too agressive preflop and then postflop you don't represent the ace, the flop he donks but you could raise, i mean the size you use preflop is for going all in after, then in the turn you are letting him know you don't beat his possible aces so his shove in the river is just too easy, i would raise the turn and then see what he does in the river but that's not the best option cause you make the pot just too big preflop.
 
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