$1.1 NLHE MTT: Flyweight $150 , Party poker

M

Muzyka1996

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Jan 11, 2016
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What is better after turn? What would you do?

PRE-FLOP
Muxxa888 folds, MR.Fishh folds, eaddie99 folds, kittikee1199 calls $500, skowits calls $500, Muzyka1996 calls $250, Skou62 checks.

FLOP [3S, 7S, TH]
Muzyka1996 checks, Skou62 bets $500, kittikee1199 folds, kingadd calls $500, Muzyka1996 raises $4,325, Skou62 calls $3,825 , kingadd folds, skowits calls $3,825


TURN [3S, 7S, TH, 5D]
Muzyka1996 bets $32,238 and is all-in, Skou62 folds, skowits calls $32,238

RIVER [3S, 7S, TH, 5D, 9D]

Showdown [TS, 9S]
Muzyka1996 [7H, 3H]
Skowits wins $81,051 from the main pot with two pair

1r4C2OQ.png
 
Andrey Smirnov

Andrey Smirnov

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We are often behind. Against his call range we have small equity
 
PHX

PHX

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Would have definitely not shoved on turn the bet is way too big given pot size. You could check and try get to show down maybe even a small bet on turn and on river.
I personally would have bet $9k on turn and shove river and would have most likely gone broke too, I would have assumed I was ahead on the flop as most better hands would have raised the flop and no obvious draw got there by the river.
 
S

sillymunchie

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im trying to figure out the maths here, and you cant really judge the opponent except he played it so passively that the opponent also made a huge mistake

YOUR mistake as far as i would look at it, is your bet sizing all round
and thats only if im calculating everything correctly, there doesnt seem to be any antes, so your calling 250 to win 2000 with an extremely mediocre hand and hoping to get that, you then hit 2 pair which is good but the board is very wet and your out of position, nobody was agressive preflop so you can safely assume your ahead at this point but your vulnerable, very vulnerable
you check which is debatable because there was no preflop action and you get your opponent to raise by 500, there is another call so you reraised to 4325 (im still not sure where this random number comes from unless there was antes of about 150) that would be the only way your bet size makes sense but even then, your still out of position and should be controlling the pot better.
then the turn comes and you jam
you have 10k pot and you stick 30k in the middle thats almost triple the pot, which is crazy
it paid off but OMG that was such a crazy move, in theory only something currently beating you can call you

now for the opponents view point
he has no idea what you have, you wasnt agro at the start you kept the pot small so he doesnt give you credit for a huge hand, he has on that flop, TPFD
13 outs + an additional out for potential runner runner straight draw
somebody please correct me if im wrong

either way 52% or 56% chance of his hand improving by the river
this is where the villain plays his hand extremely badly, if he was going to call all in on the turn he should of shoved all in on the flop, this has more winners potential since then you have to decide whether to call and he could take the pot on the flop

Morale of the story : you completely overplayed your hand and got lucky that a player played his hand worse then you played yours, then you got unlucky because by time you had your stack in you was still going to win 74% of the time, this is a tournament so try not to over inflate the pot so much, even after losing this hand you could of come back from it, had the pot control been there
 
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