$1.1 NLHE MTT: A bad decision-play?

PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 12.62 BB (VPIP: 27.54, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, hands: 70)
CO: 20.79 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 35)
BTN: 25.53 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
SB: 23.7 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
Hero (BB): 37.66 BB
UTG: 45.99 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 14.57, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 263)

6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♣

fold, fold, CO raises to 2.1 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.1 BB

Flop: (5.45 BB, 2 players) K♣ 6♦ Q♣
Hero checks, CO bets 3.25 BB, Hero calls 3.25 BB

Turn: (11.95 BB, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (11.95 BB, 2 players) 5♦
Hero checks, CO bets 15.31 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 15.31 BB

[spoil]CO shows 7♥ 8♥ (Straight, Nine High)
(Pre 40%, Flop 6%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows Q♥ A♣ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 60%, Flop 94%, Turn 86%)
CO wins 42.58 BB
[/spoil]

Hello forum guys,how would you play this spot from beginning?is there a call on river or its just (as it seems) a very bad call..?i will say my thoughts on 2nd post..PS:some extra information about villain...Attempt to steal Late position 14% and 100% flop cbet(3/3) in 35hands

Pre-flop, even though his steal number is just 14% in a limited sample size, I would assume AQo is well ahead of the villain's range. Usually I would 3-bet here.

Flop and Turn look fine.

On the river, all you have is a bluff-catcher, 2nd pair.

There are 27 BB in the pot and it's 15BB to call, so you need to win 15 / (27+15) = more than 35% of the the time for a call to be profitable.

There is nothing about this situation that makes it especially good for a bluff, and his stats do not make him look like a hyper-aggressive player. If you fold you still have a playable stack.

Hello AlextheOwl and AviCKter....Thank you both for your opinions..So here are my thoughts..Preflop i could 3bet ofc and i agree with both of you,but i decided to flat for couple of reasons:As villain doesnt steal a lot even sample isnt that big,i believe most of times he has a range that will call my 3bet and plays on flop in position..Considering that he cbet always on flop and that we are only 20bb deep (effective stack) i try to avoid it and play a lower pot postflop..Also i make my BB's calling range much stronger by flatting AQo..If i 3bet and 4bet/shoves 20bbs with my AQo is a decent situation but i am not big favourite...So i finally choosed the ''safer'' option...So lets go on flop:i check and he cbets as always..He cbets all his range here,so i call with 2nd pair with top kicker and nut backdoor flushdraw..On turn i check again because i already win all his no equity bluffs and Qx+ hands,and Kx+ as made flush and straights will not fold at least for turn..but to be honest i thought also to lead bet (as you mention Avic) or check/call and bomb river as i have tone of equity(even folding equity) Against Kx hands.Villain checks back...River is 5 of diamonds and i check again as i have showdown value..Villain overbet shoves...i tank my time and i (badly it seems) call for a reason...Wtf?What he value shoves on this river when i have the nut flush blocker and he cant have also Kx,Qx suited hands..?He must have a pretty polarized range with nuts and banch of bluffs..Ok,lets see first his ''value'' bet hands that he would shove on river.(as i estimated later on equilab)..Ovepair and Sets...(QQ-AA,99,66-55)..2 Pair hands:Q9s,K9s,KQo,KQs...
Straights:JT,78s..Top pair hands:AK,KJo-KTo with Jack and T of clubs)..Even i dont think that will overshove this particular range..If he do it,to get value from my bluff catcher gg for him..He took max value..Lets see some possible bluff shoves..:ATo-AJo (with T and J of clubs better as blocker,even he can do it with all the remaining offsuit combos..)..
A2s-A8s,ATs-AJs..All suited Ax is in his CU range and he could bluff as he doesnt have showdown value on river...Then we have big pocket pairs such as TT-JJ with one club card..I know many will disagree why to convert these big pairs to bluffs but in this spot its just 3rd pair..also these particular hands block mine straights and flushes..QJo-QTo:similiar situation with previous group..even shoving this hand doesnt have sense as it has showdown value,its a possible play if villain puts my range in Kx+ hands..Anyway i should follow other line and as Alex said as villain isnt some hyper agro(except all his flop cbets) its much better option of folding river even if i have theoretically the 35% equity to call..
PS:Even it isnt important for the hand to mention it,i have a very big downswing from late September till now and all this affects my mental mindset..I dont do my A-game because of this,with result many mistakes or not fine plays from my side...

I would 3bet pre flop about 3.5+, you have good blockers. On the flop and turn I would probably do the same, but I wouldnt call the 15BB allin on a 11 blind pot

rikoberto said:

Preflop i could 3bet ofc and i agree with both of you,but i decided to flat for couple of reasons:As villain doesnt steal a lot even sample isnt that big,i believe most of times he has a range that will call my 3bet and plays on flop in position..Considering that he cbet always on flop and that we are only 20bb deep (effective stack) i try to avoid it and play a lower pot postflop..Also i make my BB's calling range much stronger by flatting AQo..If i 3bet and 4bet/shoves 20bbs with my AQo is a decent situation but i am not big favourite(

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You probably have the strongest hand pre-flop.
If he is likely to call a 3-bet pre-flop, that's a good thing. You want to build a big pot with the strongest hand.
If he automatically c-bets every flop, that's a good thing. The strongest hand pre-flop is usually the strongest hand on the flop.
Usually he will not 4-bet. If he does you are probably behind, but that's a chance worth taking.

i understand what you say and ofc i agree as its kinda obvious bro.. But i dont know if this works for given stacks..Reason is that if i 3bet (something like 3x) and he calls,pot is around 14 bbs..He will have 14bbs behind with SPR= 1 and then i dont think i have fold in any flop as he doesnt have fold also..Its kinda like an all in situation no matter what's gonna be in flop from the time i will 3bet and gonna get called..This is not by definition bad as AQo is enough strong hand,but i choose the most ''conservative'' preflop option of lower pot ..

rikoberto said:

i understand what you say and ofc i agree as its kinda obvious bro.. But i dont know if this works for given stacks..Reason is that if i 3bet (something like 3x) and he calls,pot is around 14 bbs..He will have 14bbs behind with SPR= 1 and then i dont think i have fold in any flop as he doesnt have fold also..Its kinda like an all in situation no matter what's gonna be in flop from the time i will 3bet and gonna get called..This is not by definition bad as AQo is enough strong hand,but i choose the most ''conservative'' preflop option of lower pot ..

Click to expand...

Yes, I agree it's all in on the flop if he calls a 3-bet.
With a 3-bet pre you have fold equity.
If he doesn't fold, you have an all-in on the flop with a hand that's probably ahead.

AQo is mostly going to make hands that are Ace-high or top pair on the flop. Those hands don't benefit from seeing three streets of action. Unless your opponent's range is so narrow that you are likely to be behind pre-flop, you want to get the chips in as early as possible.

I think it alternatively. I know most won't like but here I go:

Villain has 20 bb's, I would ask myself what hands he is not jamming pre ? He tries to induce with Q's K's and A's ? Maybe AK ? It is a narrow range and most likely my AQ is ahead and big chances villain is committing a mistake and I don't want to jeopardize my 37 BB's stack.

So, I jam my AQ onto villain.

The other way is answering YES to my question and think villain is strong... but then I would do exactly what you did and I would feel obligated to fold on the river.