$0.55 NLHE MTT: Can I Find The Fold Here?

PokerStars - 800/1600 Ante 125 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+1): 42.42 BB
CO: 75.05 BB (VPIP: 47.83, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, hands: 46)
BTN: 52.42 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
SB: 35.02 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 120.16 BB
UTG: 27.2 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG+1: 48.01 BB (VPIP: 57.69, PFR: 5.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
MP: 65.82 BB (VPIP: 31.03, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)

8 players post ante of 0.08 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.13 BB) Hero has K<font color='black'>♠</font> K<font color='red'>♥</font>

fold, fold, MP calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3.12 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.88 BB

Flop: (20.13 BB, 2 players) T<font color='black'>♣</font> 7<font color='red'>♦</font> 2<font color='red'>♥</font>
BB bets 20.13 BB, Hero raises to 33.34 BB and is all-in, BB calls 13.21 BB

Turn: (86.8 BB, 2 players) 8<font color='black'>♣</font>

River: (86.8 BB, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>

BB wins 86.8 BB

ITM @ Big 0.55! Is this the definition of cooler or am I misread the situation?

Thank you in advance

5bet shove pre, easy stack off on the flop unless you are sure that V's range is KK+.

trent32la said:

5bet shove pre, easy stack off on the flop unless you are sure that V's range is KK+.

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So another cooler for me, against another unknown player. Thanks for responding, I admire your opinion very much!

an easy way to think of it is if you list all the possible hands he could 3bet with and then bet pot on the river and then count how many are ahead of you and how many you beat, if you beat 33% of the hands he could have then its a call.

this isnt totally accurate and there are more steps to really make a 100% accurate decision, but its just an easy way you can think about it.

I think he does this with 99+ and A10 and K10 and maybe AK if hes really bad...
you beat 99, JJ, QQ, A10 and K10, you tie with KK and AA and 1010 beat you. youre way ahead here

I agree 100% with 5bet all in pre

mbrenneman0 said:

an easy way to think of it is if you list all the possible hands he could 3bet with and then bet pot on the river and then count how many are ahead of you and how many you beat, if you beat 33% of the hands he could have then its a call.

this isnt totally accurate and there are more steps to really make a 100% accurate decision, but its just an easy way you can think about it.

I think he does this with 99+ and A10 and K10 and maybe AK if hes really bad...
you beat 99, JJ, QQ, A10 and K10, you tie with KK and AA and 1010 beat you. youre way ahead here

I agree 100% with 5bet all in pre

Click to expand...

To be more technical with it, the # of hands we beat is irrelevant, the # of combinations of hands we beat and our equity against each hand is relevant.

I wouldn't think V is gonna be cold 4betting KT/AT/99 here ever. Something like JJ+ AK+ is more accurate and we can possibly take out JJ too.

So if V pot bets JJ+ AK+ after cold 4betting pre, We have 90% equity against twelve combos of JJ/QQ, 50% equity against one combo of KK, 10% equity against six combos of AA, and 84% equity against eight combos of AK.

Then you add all the equities up and divide them by the total # of hand combinations.

0.9 x 12 = 10.8, .5 x 1 = 0.5, .1 x 6 = 0.6, .84 x 8 = 6.72, which adds up to 18.62. 18.62 divided by 27 = 0.69, or 69% equity against a hand range of JJ+ AK+ in this spot.

Of course, with programs like Pokerstrategy Equilab out there to calculate this stuff for us it is easy as we can just plug in our hand vs their range on this flop, however it's still good to understand how to calculate equities based on the number of hand combinations you're up against.

thats a 3bet btw... but in a 0.55 game, you can really see some wacky combos and lines show up in this spot so i assumed a wider range..

and yeah thats the correct way to analyze a calling spot, but the way I mentioned above is something quuick and dirty that you can do at the table without running out your timebank, although not very accurate.

mbrenneman0 said:

but in a 0.55 game, you can really see some wacky combos and lines show up in this spot so i assumed a wider range..

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Agreed, I play micro's like this too and it can get weird. Plus he's the big stack by a mile. I wouldn't be surprised to see this 3bet be 10 10, AJs, AQo either. With this much breathing room above the rest of the table, this guy could easily be making moves with these types of hands. As per Trent, never calling pre with KK, always raising, then trying to stuff it all in the middle post flop.

Easy all in pre, unless you know that he's very agressive postflop.

Wow I have to study harder the equity thing pre flop thanks to your comments guys haha.

The only con I can tell is that you have to play against good players in order to understand your moves and the equities and not against random clickers. In higher stakes you play with the range and not solely with your holding.