$0.55 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Small river bet to call with TPTK and nut flush draw blocker

$0.55 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Small river bet to call with TPTK and nut flush draw blocker

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/15/5

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/15/5

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/15/5

PokerStars - 60/120 Ante 12 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 90.18 BB (VPIP: 34.43, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, hands: 62)
BTN: 72.15 BB (VPIP: 1.61, PFR: 1.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
SB: 69.99 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 46)
BB: 44.88 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 21)
UTG: 29.35 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.47, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
UTG+1: 41.57 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP: 56.78 BB (VPIP: 12.90, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
MP+1: 50.92 BB (VPIP: 14.52, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 62)
Hero (MP+2): 93.99 BB

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has A♥ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 8♥ Q♥ 4♥
BB checks, Hero bets 3.55 BB, BB calls 3.55 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) J♦
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8 BB, BB raises to 11.6 BB, Hero calls 5.8 BB

River: (37.7 BB, 2 players) 3♦
BB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

BB shows 9♥ 7♥ (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 68%, Turn 84%)
Hero mucks A♥ Q♦ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 61%, Flop 32%, Turn 16%)
BB wins 63.7 BB

So, what do you guys think? Can we really fold this river?

I generally tend to think a player who is ~41/20 is somewhat passive, even over only 21 hands. For this reason I tend to give credit to their raises. Especially such a small check raise on the turn, it's just too weak to be a bluff in my mind. I mean you definitely can't fold to it, but the small river bet is at least two pair like QJ.. Again it's such a small bet that while it doesn't scream strength, I don't think villain is doing this with a hand any worse than AQ.

Calling the river here is terrible, you block all of your opponent's bluffs. If you think he's good enough to fold 2pr or a weak flush then jam as you block the nuts. If not, fold as this sizing is never worse.