$0.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Final table, 9 players, KJs in UTG2 and 10bb. All-in?

jadaminato · Aug 9, 2019

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/7.7/50

UTG1: 24bb
UTG2 (hero): 9.7bb
MP: 7.7bb
MP1: 19bb
MP2: 18bb
CO: 5.7bb
BTN: 14bb
SB: 11bb
BB: 10bb

Hero raises and go all-in, everyone folds, SB pays and go all-in too.

SB shows AQo

Cards:

K - J -T - 9 - 3

He wins with the straight.

Was it a bad move on my part?

eetenor · Aug 9, 2019

Odds calculator

jadaminato said:
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/7.7/50

UTG1: 24bb
UTG2 (hero): 9.7bb
MP: 7.7bb
MP1: 19bb
MP2: 18bb
CO: 5.7bb
BTN: 14bb
SB: 11bb
BB: 10bb

Hero raises and go all-in, everyone folds, SB pays and go all-in too.

SB shows AQo

Cards:

K - J -T - 9 - 3

He wins with the straight.

Was it a bad move on my part?

Thank u 4 posting.

Have you ever used the cardschat odds calculator? It is a very hand tool and helps us to use math to answer questions like these.

In this hand you ran into a premium hand in the BB, which just sucks. AQ is getting played all day long in tournies for 10 bb

So with this bad preflop result, how much equity did we have?

A whopping 41%, think about that.

Was it a bad play? You tell me.

Hope this helps

jadaminato · Aug 9, 2019

eetenor said:
Thank u 4 posting.

Have you ever used the cardschat odds calculator? It is a very hand tool and helps us to use math to answer questions like these.

In this hand you ran into a premium hand in the BB, which just sucks. AQ is getting played all day long in tournies for 10 bb

So with this bad preflop result, how much equity did we have?

A whopping 41%, think about that.

Was it a bad play? You tell me.

Hope this helps

Ok, let's use math:

We will assign a percentage of possibilities to each player to pay. We will assume, to make it easier, that anyone would have paid with pairs of 99 or more, AK suited and off and AQ suited and off.

We know there are 1,326 possible poker hands. However, once two cards have been removed (ours) the 50 remaining cards form only 1,225 hands. Of those hands, how many serve our opponents?
AA: 6 pairs
KK: 6 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 6 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 16 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

But now we have to subtract some, since we have a K and a J, then the table would look like this:

AA: 6 pairs
KK: 3 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 3 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 12 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

Total: 58 hands serve our opponents. If we said that there are 1225 total hands, the percentage of hands that serve them is 4.74%

We multiply that amount by the number of remaining players and it gives us 33.18%. So we have a 67% chance that nobody will pay.
But this does not end here, because even if they paid against each of their hands we have chances.

Against AA, my KJ wins 18% = 1.08 hands
Against KK, 14% = 0.42 hands
Against QQ, 32% = 1.92 hands
Against JJ, 34% = 1.02 hands
Against 10 10, 46% = 2.76 hands
Against 9 9, 35% = 2.1 hands
Against AK, 29% = 3.48 hands
Against AQ, 31% = 4.96 hands

We add the hands we win and give us a total of 17.74 hands out of a total of 58, that is 30% of the time.

Now let's see if the play was profitable or not.

Everyone folds: 67% chance. Chips after that happens: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 that I had, 12.24bb, multiplied by the 67% probability yields an expected value of 8.2bb.

If a player pays and wins: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 multiplied by 2 = 21.86 bb. Of the 4.74% of the times that a player is going to pay, 30% will win him, that is a total of 1.42% of the times he calls. We multiply the 21.86 blind by that value and it gives us a total of 0.31 bb. They are 7 players, so we multiply that value by 7, getting 2.17 bb.

8.2 bb if everybody folds, plus 2.17 bb if someone calls gives a total of 10.37 bb. My chips were 9.62 bb, so with 10.37 bb of expected value we can conclude that going all-in is a profitable move.

This analysis is taken from "Holdem harrington Vol. 2"

jadaminato · Aug 9, 2019

jadaminato said:
Ok, let's use math:

We will assign a percentage of possibilities to each player to pay. We will assume, to make it easier, that anyone would have paid with pairs of 99 or more, AK suited and off and AQ suited and off.

We know there are 1,326 possible poker hands. However, once two cards have been removed (ours) the 50 remaining cards form only 1,225 hands. Of those hands, how many serve our opponents?
AA: 6 pairs
KK: 6 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 6 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 16 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

But now we have to subtract some, since we have a K and a J, then the table would look like this:

AA: 6 pairs
KK: 3 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 3 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 12 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

Total: 58 hands serve our opponents. If we said that there are 1225 total hands, the percentage of hands that serve them is 4.74%

We multiply that amount by the number of remaining players and it gives us 33.18%. So we have a 67% chance that nobody will pay.
But this does not end here, because even if they paid against each of their hands we have chances.

Against AA, my KJ wins 18% = 1.08 hands
Against KK, 14% = 0.42 hands
Against QQ, 32% = 1.92 hands
Against JJ, 34% = 1.02 hands
Against 10 10, 46% = 2.76 hands
Against 9 9, 35% = 2.1 hands
Against AK, 29% = 3.48 hands
Against AQ, 31% = 4.96 hands

We add the hands we win and give us a total of 17.74 hands out of a total of 58, that is 30% of the time.

Now let's see if the play was profitable or not.

Everyone folds: 67% chance. Chips after that happens: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 that I had, 12.24bb, multiplied by the 67% probability yields an expected value of 8.2bb.

If a player pays and wins: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 multiplied by 2 = 21.86 bb. Of the 4.74% of the times that a player is going to pay, 30% will win him, that is a total of 1.42% of the times he calls. We multiply the 21.86 blind by that value and it gives us a total of 0.31 bb. They are 7 players, so we multiply that value by 7, getting 2.17 bb.

8.2 bb if everybody folds, plus 2.17 bb if someone calls gives a total of 10.37 bb. My chips were 9.62 bb, so with 10.37 bb of expected value we can conclude that going all-in is a profitable move.

This analysis is taken from "Holdem harrington Vol. 2"

I made a mistake, against AQ we won 41%, not 31%, but it doesn't change the result, it just improves it.

yoejslattery · Aug 9, 2019

Nice analysis. The only consideration I would throw out there is ICM thoughts. It looks like everyone is pretty shallow at this final table. If the pay jumps were significant, I may fold KJ UTG2 and wait till I am in a later position to shove also in the hope that other people bust before me.

jadaminato · Aug 9, 2019

yoejslattery said:
Nice analysis. The only consideration I would throw out there is ICM thoughts. It looks like everyone is pretty shallow at this final table. If the pay jumps were significant, I may fold KJ UTG2 and wait till I am in a later position to shove also in the hope that other people bust before me.

In this case, the only places worthwhile were the first 3. Remember that the buy-in was 0.50.

eetenor · Aug 9, 2019

Great math

jadaminato said:
I made a mistake, against AQ we won 41%, not 31%, but it doesn't change the result, it just improves it.

Thank u 4 responding.

Great job on the math and as the math shows it is an obvious shove. As I stated the AQ was one of the bad outcomes and you still had 41% equity.

Your analysis of the situation was quite detailed. Looking at all possibilities is a great exercise. Well done.
The simpler odds calculator recommendation I gave was to point out how strong the shove was even when we run into AQ. We can use the simple exercise of looking up the equity to evaluate the shove and ignore the results if the math is right. That way we question ourselves rationally based on the math not emotionally based on the result. Yes it sucks to shove and lose but the math not the pain needs to dictate the proper action.

Once again great job looking at this situation rationally.

Keep up the great work.

vlad1slaw · Aug 10, 2019

If you laid out a payouts, you could easily calculate your push by ICM, it looks like a easy fold considering the avarage stack

I don't understand, what are you trying to calculate

fundiver199 · Aug 10, 2019

With 10BB or less you can generally just rely on push-fold charts, and they say KJs is a push from any seat at the table. It is near the bottom of the hands, you are supposed to push from EP though, so folding would not be a big mistake either.

Ryan Laplante · Aug 10, 2019

jadaminato said:
Ok, let's use math:

We will assign a percentage of possibilities to each player to pay. We will assume, to make it easier, that anyone would have paid with pairs of 99 or more, AK suited and off and AQ suited and off.

We know there are 1,326 possible poker hands. However, once two cards have been removed (ours) the 50 remaining cards form only 1,225 hands. Of those hands, how many serve our opponents?
AA: 6 pairs
KK: 6 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 6 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 16 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

But now we have to subtract some, since we have a K and a J, then the table would look like this:

AA: 6 pairs
KK: 3 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 3 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 12 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

Total: 58 hands serve our opponents. If we said that there are 1225 total hands, the percentage of hands that serve them is 4.74%

We multiply that amount by the number of remaining players and it gives us 33.18%. So we have a 67% chance that nobody will pay.
But this does not end here, because even if they paid against each of their hands we have chances.

Against AA, my KJ wins 18% = 1.08 hands
Against KK, 14% = 0.42 hands
Against QQ, 32% = 1.92 hands
Against JJ, 34% = 1.02 hands
Against 10 10, 46% = 2.76 hands
Against 9 9, 35% = 2.1 hands
Against AK, 29% = 3.48 hands
Against AQ, 31% = 4.96 hands

We add the hands we win and give us a total of 17.74 hands out of a total of 58, that is 30% of the time.

Now let's see if the play was profitable or not.

Everyone folds: 67% chance. Chips after that happens: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 that I had, 12.24bb, multiplied by the 67% probability yields an expected value of 8.2bb.

If a player pays and wins: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 multiplied by 2 = 21.86 bb. Of the 4.74% of the times that a player is going to pay, 30% will win him, that is a total of 1.42% of the times he calls. We multiply the 21.86 blind by that value and it gives us a total of 0.31 bb. They are 7 players, so we multiply that value by 7, getting 2.17 bb.

8.2 bb if everybody folds, plus 2.17 bb if someone calls gives a total of 10.37 bb. My chips were 9.62 bb, so with 10.37 bb of expected value we can conclude that going all-in is a profitable move.

This analysis is taken from "Holdem harrington Vol. 2"

Great math!

There are slightly easier ways to do this using calculators, but seeing this by hand and done well is cool.

theANMATOR · Aug 10, 2019

I'd fold for the simple fact people are shoving with either an Ace or a pocket pair, and with these short stack games - you had neither - so you were loosing before the first card was flipped, assuming what MOST players are shoving with, regardless of the math.

Math a lot of the time gets us busted, sometimes the gut is a more reliable tool.

jadaminato · Aug 10, 2019

theANMATOR said:
I'd fold for the simple fact people are shoving with either an Ace or a pocket pair, and with these short stack games - you had neither - so you were loosing before the first card was flipped, assuming what MOST players are shoving with, regardless of the math.

Math a lot of the time gets us busted, sometimes the gut is a more reliable tool.

With ten blinds you can't deign to wait for a premium hand. On average, you will receive a pocket card every seventeen hands, and it can be a pair of two. With respect to the aces, it is the same, with less than A7 you are playing garbage, and the chances of getting a better hand are not so many. If you see the flop, you'll see that I beat even a couple of aces. Mathematics does not lie and the odds are a large percentage of the good game in poker.

mara2259 · Aug 11, 2019

Your hand is not as strong as it seems. These are not my words, this is a statement of poker professionals. Her strength is clearly not enough to open trade from the position of UTG2. You are on the final table with the seventh largest stack, two more participants are right next to you. The simple instinct of self-preservation should have prompted you to decide in favor of folding, because the difference between 9th and 5th place in the event of elimination is very significant. Of course, if you do not recognize anything other than first place, then perhaps your actions have a certain meaning, moreover, if there were no jacks on the flop, you would generally become a hero with amazing intuition. But you must admit that counting on the fact that your hand will certainly strengthen towards the river, is at least naive.

jadaminato · Aug 11, 2019

mara2259 said:
Your hand is not as strong as it seems. These are not my words, this is a statement of poker professionals. Her strength is clearly not enough to open trade from the position of UTG2. You are on the final table with the seventh largest stack, two more participants are right next to you. The simple instinct of self-preservation should have prompted you to decide in favor of folding, because the difference between 9th and 5th place in the event of elimination is very significant. Of course, if you do not recognize anything other than first place, then perhaps your actions have a certain meaning, moreover, if there were no jacks on the flop, you would generally become a hero with amazing intuition. But you must admit that counting on the fact that your hand will certainly strengthen towards the river, is at least naive.

I can send you several links and books where professionals say that KJs (much less really) is enough for a situation where your SPR is 5. It is about mathematics, not intuition.
Also, I play to win, not to get the 6th place instead of the 7th.

theANMATOR · Aug 12, 2019

MATHS'S is the BESTS'S

jadaminato said:
With ten blinds you can't deign to wait for a premium hand. On average, you will receive a pocket card every seventeen hands, and it can be a pair of two. With respect to the aces, it is the same, with less than A7 you are playing garbage, and the chances of getting a better hand are not so many. If you see the flop, you'll see that I beat even a couple of aces. Mathematics does not lie and the odds are a large percentage of the good game in poker.

I'll ignore the passive aggressive MATH is dominant statement and just address the obvious.

You had 10bb left - with current blinds that is roughly 85 hands. Lets drop it down to 35 so we can keep some chips left to be meaningful for fold equity. That gives us 35 hands to find a better spot.
This math - lost you this hand and this event, so regardless of how many professionals say this is s shove spot - it was a loss in this instant - so why are you asking for input - if you KNOW the math is correct?

Lets do some more math

K - J -T - 9 - 3
A/J x 2 A/T x4 A/9 x4 A/3 x4, pocket Ks x1, pocket Js x1 pocket T x2 pocket 9s x2 pocket 3s x2

22 combinations would have beat you preflop.
Seems maybe one of the opponents may have called with any of those combinations, + any ace which you would have beat except A/Q, A/J, A/T, A/9, A/3.

People are calling/shoving with ANY Ace and pocket pair. If I'm not holding one of those strong Aces or a big pocket pair - I'll keep my chips in my pile and let others PREFLOP shove K/J off hoping to hit something better and hoping an ace (18%?) doesn't hit on the board.

Veritas · Aug 13, 2019

jadaminato said:
Ok, let's use math:

We will assign a percentage of possibilities to each player to pay. We will assume, to make it easier, that anyone would have paid with pairs of 99 or more, AK suited and off and AQ suited and off.

We know there are 1,326 possible poker hands. However, once two cards have been removed (ours) the 50 remaining cards form only 1,225 hands. Of those hands, how many serve our opponents?
AA: 6 pairs
KK: 6 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 6 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 16 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

But now we have to subtract some, since we have a K and a J, then the table would look like this:

AA: 6 pairs
KK: 3 pairs
QQ: 6 pairs
JJ: 3 pairs
1010: 6 pairs
99: 6 pairs
AK: 12 pairs
AQ: 16 pairs

Total: 58 hands serve our opponents. If we said that there are 1225 total hands, the percentage of hands that serve them is 4.74%

We multiply that amount by the number of remaining players and it gives us 33.18%. So we have a 67% chance that nobody will pay.
But this does not end here, because even if they paid against each of their hands we have chances.

Against AA, my KJ wins 18% = 1.08 hands
Against KK, 14% = 0.42 hands
Against QQ, 32% = 1.92 hands
Against JJ, 34% = 1.02 hands
Against 10 10, 46% = 2.76 hands
Against 9 9, 35% = 2.1 Hands why should you have less Equity vs 99 than against TT? vs 99 it's 48%
Against AK, 29% = 3.48 hands
Against AQ, 31% = 4.96 Hands also wrong. ~40% depending on suits

We add the hands we win and give us a total of 17.74 hands out of a total of 58, that is 30% of the time.

Now let's see if the play was profitable or not.

Everyone folds: 67% chance. Chips after that happens: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 that I had, 12.24bb, multiplied by the 67% probability yields an expected value of 8.2bb.

If a player pays and wins: Pot 2.62bb, plus 9.62 multiplied by 2 = 21.86 bb. Of the 4.74% of the times that a player is going to pay, 30% will win him, that is a total of 1.42% of the times he calls. We multiply the 21.86 blind by that value and it gives us a total of 0.31 bb. They are 7 players, so we multiply that value by 7, getting 2.17 bb.

8.2 bb if everybody folds, plus 2.17 bb if someone calls gives a total of 10.37 bb. My chips were 9.62 bb, so with 10.37 bb of expected value we can conclude that going all-in is a profitable move.

This analysis is taken from "Holdem harrington Vol. 2"

A few Things I think are wrong in this calculation:
1) some equities are wrong, I highlighted them in the Quote.
2) the AQ+ 99+ range is way too tight for a 50 Cent donkament. People will call a 10bb shove with a wider range. Like ATo+, KQ+ 66+.
And even with that range and a calling frequenzy of 33%, you are 33% of the time behind because no Hand in their range is behind your KJs. Your best Chance is a flip. This insight + reason #3 should tell you that this shove is not a good one.
3) ICM completly ignored. The most important factor in a later stage of a Tournament is completly ignored: the ICM. the avg stack size is ~13; 5 People are below avg; your are at #7/9, slightly behind #6 and #5.
so this shove is just one Thing: ICM SUICIDE
also if you see that your stack is 9.62bb and the expected value for your shove is 10.37bb, you should see that it is not too much of an profitable call.
with ICM and a wider range, I'm sure you are losing Money.

to get an overview of your +EV calling/shoving range in those spots, put the stack sizes, ranges and payouts into ICMIZER

vlad1slaw said:
I don't understand, what are you trying to calculate

He is calculating % of our opponents getting a Hand to call and our equity against those Hands.

fundiver199 said:
With 10BB or less you can generally just rely on push-fold charts, and they say KJs is a push from any seat at the table. It is near the bottom of the hands, you are supposed to push from EP though, so folding would not be a big mistake either.

With KJs at the Bottom of our range and a lot of similar stack sizes, I would not call here. someone has to put it in ICMIZER to see the correct shoving ranges here.

theANMATOR said:
Math a lot of the time gets us busted, sometimes the gut is a more reliable tool.

it's still all About the Maths if you Play online and can't see your Opponent and don't know him.

jadaminato said:
With ten blinds you can't deign to wait for a premium hand. On average, you will receive a pocket card every seventeen hands, and it can be a pair of two. With respect to the aces, it is the same, with less than A7 you are playing garbage, and the chances of getting a better hand are not so many. If you see the flop, you'll see that I beat even a couple of aces. Mathematics does not lie and the odds are a large percentage of the good game in poker.

with a 5.7 and a 7.7 stack it is fine to wait because KJs in EP is not a strong Hand either.

jadaminato said:
I can send you several links and books where professionals say that KJs (much less really) is enough for a situation where your SPR is 5. It is about mathematics, not intuition.
Also, I play to win, not to get the 6th place instead of the 7th.

I agree with you that shoving KJs with less than 10bb is fine, but not on a final table with a stack avg of 13bb

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$0.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Final table, 9 players, KJs in UTG2 and 10bb. All-in?

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