$0.50 NLHE MTT: Aces cracked, on what street should I have found a fold?

This hand has been bothering me for a couple days and I definitely think I could've played it better.

I only had 5 hands on villain so not a lot to go on, but I had just seen him bluff two people off a pot with a short stack all-in. I didn't get the impression he was a very good player.

At no point during the hand did I ever put villain on the flush. My assumption was if he had the flush he would've bet bigger on the flop and smaller on the turn and river. I did think AxQx, KdQx, QxJd, Jd10x, or Jd9x were all in his cold calling range.

I think villain would've been sticky with his hand, but I think shoving the turn would've had a better chance of working.

Let me know what you think.



888 Poker - 50/100 Ante 10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 48.99 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 6)
BTN: 64.74 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB: 159.64 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 21.21, 3Bet Preflop: 15.15, Hands: 66)
BB: 127.48 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 5)
UTG: 49.8 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
UTG+1: 47.24 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
MP: 5.08 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (MP+1): 93.44 BB

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has A♦ A♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2.2 BB

Flop: (7.7 BB, 2 players) T♦ Q♦ 5♠
BB bets 3.85 BB, Hero calls 3.85 BB

Turn: (15.4 BB, 2 players) 6♦
BB bets 15.4 BB, Hero calls 15.4 BB

River: (46.2 BB, 2 players) 2♣
BB bets 46.2 BB, Hero raises to 70.89 BB and is all-in, BB calls 24.69 BB

BB shows Q♥ 6♥ (Two Pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 18%, Turn 64%)
Hero shows A♦ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 82%, Flop 82%, Turn 36%)
BB wins 187.98 BB

Very tough hand, specially because you were holding the A♦, which is a blocker for the nut flush. If he knew anything about odds, he couldn't possibly fold your shove at the river, so I'm guessing you were really trying to value bet your Aces. If you were trying to get a fold, it was a really bad move and should have been made at the turn like you said.

He was defending the big blind and you had a read he was a bad player, so I'm not sure why you put him on such a tight range. He could try to defend with most hands, specially having a Q.

I find it hard to see when people have two pair or a set, so I understand why you couldn't see it coming. But I would never shove the river, probably just call and try to dig myself out of the hole after losing the hand.

Hand plays itself up to river. Villain representing flush and sets. I think you can call on the river, because you hold blocker to ace high flush. But I don't understand why you raised him? I think call on the river wouldn't be a mistake, your biggest mistake was shove on the river.

flop is a raise imo for protection & value vs flush draw.
if BB donking turn again, then its a call but only for our flush draw (vill. prob. got their flush/sets/2pairs here).
3rd barrel on river from BB is a fold here (we only beat QX & 5 hands are not enough to label BB as super aggro fish)

RocwX said:

He was defending the big blind and you had a read he was a bad player, so I'm not sure why you put him on such a tight range. He could try to defend with most hands, specially having a Q.

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I knew he’d be defending the BB super wide, but I tightened his range up quite a bit when he donned into me on the flop.

That was probably my first mistake because I wasn’t taking into account the smaller sets and random 2pairs.

liuouhgkres said:

Hand plays itself up to river. Villain representing flush and sets. I think you can call on the river, because you hold blocker to ace high flush. But I don't understand why you raised him? I think call on the river wouldn't be a mistake, your biggest mistake was shove on the river.

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At that point I’d convinced myself he was over playing top pair maybe with a missed flush draw. I think I should’ve played the hand differently from the flop, but I also thought he’d call me with a naked queen.

kozong said:

flop is a raise imo for protection & value vs flush draw.
if BB donking turn again, then its a call but only for our flush draw (vill. prob. got their flush/sets/2pairs here).
3rd barrel on river from BB is a fold here (we only beat QX & 5 hands are not enough to label BB as super aggro fish)

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I completely agree with you, kozong. I’ve replayed this hand countless times and I think I should’ve reraised the flop to $1100, called his pot sized turn bet, and folded the river to another big bet. I had convinced myself I was ahead but the action should’ve shown me I wasn’t.

AA's are hard to let go this could happen to anyone good luck next time.

Rule of thumb.

Best not to underestimate any players and assume they are or maybe a fish before you have any history with them.
Best to assume they are good until they prove otherwise then you can start to adjust. I think you begin to get an idea around 60+ hands.

The sizing seems a little large pre flop. With that in mind, when the button defends. He will have almost his any suited hand pre flop cause he is getting about 2.5 to 1. Even if he is calling to check fold, it will is still very profitable for him.
With that in mind.
When he leads out on that QdTd5s, it is a very very VERY wet board, at this point our hand is very vulnerable, but because you have diamond and blockers to Broadway, we should 3bet to protect our equity in the hand. So much of his hands are going to be combo draws diamonds+ straights and some two pairs that are betting for equity protection. On the flop, we can happily get in should villain get it in.

If villain flats, and the 6d pills. Our hand is effectively a bluff catcher. His combo draws just got there and his two pair hands are still ahead of us but at the same time, we just picked up a redraw to the nutts.

If villain leads on the turn, we can call most bets that don't leave us crippled if we don't improve on the river. If he checks, we check back the turn and fold most rivers unless the price is to good to pass up.