$0.25 NLHE MTT: Is this river bluff justified?

One of my favorite post flop trick is call an opponent's bet on a low board and then bet big if the next card is the highest card. However, I'm not certain if this is the proper play for this hand.

It's level 5 in a 25cents 45 man SNG. 6 players are on the table.

I have and picked up in MP. I opened to 2.3BB. Small bet size due to 2 players who has <10 BB are yet to act. Only the Button (15% VPIP , 8% 3-Bet) called. I have slightly bigger stack than him.

Flop : Pot : 6.8BB Effective stack: 26.8 BB

Figured out that with his range, no way he's folding anything. Check Check.

Turn : Pot : 6.8BB Effective stack: 26.8 BB

Check. Button bets 2.1 BB. Easy call for me?

Turn : Pot : 11.1BB Effective stack: 24.7 BB

Highest card! I bet 5.8BB. Opponent folds.

However, I'm wondering whether for this hand, the move make senses. Like there must be a lot of King in his range. What is the proper play here, given my AT is essentially only beating like A9s , A8s , and QJ? Fold on the turn?

The K is a good card for your pf range, but up until the river, that is a terrible board for your range.

Your bluff worked, though, so good job.

First, you have a slightly bigger stack than villain and villain starts hand with 29.1 BB so that means you are in the 30-35BB range. I bring this up because with that stack size 2.3BB is what you should be open raising too and not much if anything larger. No reason to be opening 3 or more BB on that stack size.

On the flop it is probably villain dependent whether they will be folding something that is non pocket pair. With their stats, I think their range is pocket pairs and large Ax. There are some Kxs in there but not many. So when you say a bet wont make him fold I say it depends. If you had pocket 10s here you would be betting a big chunk of villains range is AK -A9 so yeah they might be folding to a bet here. However I dont mind the check I just think you did for the wrong reason. You should be checking here beause a lot of time you are behind right now.

The turn is not a good card for anyone so depending on how you look at it can be fine or can be bad news. Depends on how far behind you really are here. I think if villain had a pocket pair they would have bet the flop so I am putting them on the AK-A9 mentioned earlier and some other Kx broadway hands. The card does eliminate your backdoor flush draw leaving you with only Ace which is what I also think villain has. I would also call the turn probably but I am also thinking I am behind here. I am only calling because the KQ hands are still possible and the bet is less than 1/3rd pot.

The river is a 50/50 spot to me as I think villain will fold Ax that is not Ak but could have Kx. I do like bluffing here as villain did not show strength on the turn and I think we lose if it goes check/check. Your bet sizing in my opinion is perfect on the river. It is just over half pot and enough to make villain not like his odds but also is not a crusher if they raise us and we just have to fold.

In totality I think you played the hand very well but I think you did a few things for reasons that may not have been true. You might have called the turn because you thought you were ahead (not sure if you mentioned why you thought it was an easy call) but it really a call only based on price. Good hand though and in the end you made the right move at the right time.

Thanks for posting this hand. Its definitely an interesting one even the stakes are very low.

Preflop
Standard open, we get called by a TAG on BTN, lets see a flop

Flop
I definitely agree with checking here. On a board like this he is never folding a better hand, and he is rarely calling with worse either, so a bet does not really accomplish anything other than to deny a bit of equity. I also think, there is a risk, some players will raise a C-bet as a bluff, because we pretty much never hit on that low paired board. And I dont want to get bluffed off my hand just yet.

Turn
The situation is still the same, except that he checked back flop, which mean, we probably have the best hand most of the time. However its still difficult to get called by worse, so the best option is to check and use our hand as a bluff catcher. Just like you did.

River
While I understand your idea of using the K as a "scare card", I think, you are doing it in a bad spot. The only better hands, I can possibly see him folding here, are AQ and AJ, but with an 8% 3-bet these are somewhat unlikely, when he just called preflop. A hand like 55 or 77 might fold as well, but I dont think, he has them after checking back the flop. This is the basic idea of the hand range funnel. His range gets narrower after each action, he takes, and if a hand was removed from his range earlier, he can not have it on the river.

Most of the time he either has a hand like KQ or KJ, which just got there, and is obviously not folding. Or he has a hand, you still beat, like some suited connector or a worse AX. So I prefer to check again and hope, he give up and check back a hand, we beat. And if he make a substantial bet, I fold. Your donk bet worked in the sense, that you won the hand, but I think, he most likely folded a hand, you were already beating.

Hello, I agree that it is interesting hand. I also were playing this tournaments. I think that hero played this hand very well and it makes a sense. In this tournaments when opponent bet small bet like in this situation on the turn for less than 50% of the pot it means usually that opponent hasn't strong hand. As opponent played check on the flop and small bet on the turn, I think that we usually have the best hand. I agree that on the river come good card to bluff, because in your range is some strong kx hands and I think it is worth to risk bluff on the river at this level tournaments.

fundiver199 said:

Thanks for posting this hand. Its definitely an interesting one even the stakes are very low.

Preflop
Standard open, we get called by a TAG on BTN, lets see a flop

Flop
I definitely agree with checking here. On a board like this he is never folding a better hand, and he is rarely calling with worse either, so a bet does not really accomplish anything other than to deny a bit of equity. I also think, there is a risk, some players will raise a C-bet as a bluff, because we pretty much never hit on that low paired board. And I dont want to get bluffed off my hand just yet.

Turn
The situation is still the same, except that he checked back flop, which mean, we probably have the best hand most of the time. However its still difficult to get called by worse, so the best option is to check and use our hand as a bluff catcher. Just like you did.

River
While I understand your idea of using the K as a "scare card", I think, you are doing it in a bad spot. The only better hands, I can possibly see him folding here, are AQ and AJ, but with an 8% 3-bet these are somewhat unlikely, when he just called preflop. A hand like 55 or 77 might fold as well, but I dont think, he has them after checking back the flop. This is the basic idea of the hand range funnel. His range gets narrower after each action, he takes, and if a hand was removed from his range earlier, he can not have it on the river.

Most of the time he either has a hand like KQ or KJ, which just got there, and is obviously not folding. Or he has a hand, you still beat, like some suited connector or a worse AX. So I prefer to check again and hope, he give up and check back a hand, we beat. And if he make a substantial bet, I fold. Your donk bet worked in the sense, that you won the hand, but I think, he most likely folded a hand, you were already beating.

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"A bet does not really accomplish anything other than to deny a bit of equity"

Tbf denying equity at these stakes is underrated. Especially since you don't get raised anywhere near enough. A tiny flop bet here both auto-profits and denies so much equity. If you bet like 1/6th pot they're not gonna defend nowhere near enough. Especially with a BDFD you're just printing.

Edit to OP: Small addition on sample size, be careful how fast you make adjustments based on stats. We always need a solid sample size before we make any adjustments, otherwise just stick to your basic strategy (although possible, 15 vpip and 8% 3B isn't too likely to be a solid sample in a 0.25 sng. It could very well be, but just making sure you realise we need a big sample).

I don't like the donk bet on the river. Chances are you have the best hand, or he has a King (or better). So when he calls, you lose. When he folds, it would have been the same had you checked.

It is possible villain would have tried to bet you off the river had you checked. That is why a check/call (within reason) is better here. It costs the same when you lose, but you win more when he bluffs.