$0.25 NLHE MTT: Poor donk or just unfortunate?

$0.25 NLHE MTT: Poor donk or just unfortunate?

pokerstars, $0.23 + $0.02 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

TheSlayer558 (UTG): 4,732 (237 bb)
Matreiro51 (UTG+1): 1,449 (72 bb)
xSoulzz (MP): 1,379 (69 bb)
Augusto Nery (MP+1): 1,487 (74 bb)
s.Oblique (CO): 1,449 (72 bb)
bonemine (BU): 1,633 (82 bb)
Kbelera25 (SB): 1,489 (74 bb)
nwhitney118 (BB): 1,379 (69 bb)

Pre-Flop: (54) Hero (nwhitney118) is BB with J♣ 4♣
3 players fold, Augusto Nery (MP+1) raises to 60, 1 fold, bonemine (BU) calls 60, 1 fold, nwhitney118 (BB) calls 40

Flop: (214) 6♣ 4♠ J♦ (3 players)
nwhitney118 (BB) bets 120, Augusto Nery (MP+1) calls 120, bonemine (BU) raises to 720, nwhitney118 (BB) raises to 1,316 (all-in), Augusto Nery (MP+1) folds, bonemine (BU) calls 596

Turn: (2,966) 7♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (2,966) Q♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 2,966

Showdown:
nwhitney118 (BB) shows J♣ 4♣ (two pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 34%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

bonemine (BU) shows 6♦ 6♥ (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

bonemine (BU) wins 2,966

Early on in a 0.25c SnG with no reads on villain. They're almost never calling a preflop raise with J6 so the only hand they have me beat with is 66 or 44 (aside from the absolute hail mary set with the two remaining jacks). I wanted to get three streets of value out of my two pair given how dry a flop came down hence the donk bet out, I didn't want it checking around and missing out on value.

After he 3 bets I think given the stakes it's fair to believe V could be doing it with AA, KK or QQ (granted many people would have 3 bet pre however at these stakes it isn't unknown for people to flat). Thoughts? Biggest doubt I have is if people flat with those premium hands enough to warrant me having them in villains range.

Let me first say since you mentioned it that you will rarely get three streets of value on hands like this unless you get super lucky and someone backs into second best with two pair or you are going against 64 from the onset which is very unlikely. Many opponents will not call the river with air here so I think 2 streets is really all you can hope for and even that is usually unlikely.

To start with the hand analysis I would not be defending here. Others will probably disagree that is fine since that is what this forum is all about I am just saying I dont like it. There will be too many times that even when you hit a one pair hand you will be screwed and many times that you will be check folding on the flop. Very rarely as in this case will you hit anything of significance. I know you are deep here but I like folding here and just going on especially since there are no antes to defend either.

On the flop, I disagree wit the leadout. It makes sense if you think that one of your opponents has an over pair but that will most likely not be the case. I think it is best to check to the raiser here and then either call or raise depending on what villain #2 does. When you get raised on this flop you need to start putting all info you have together to get a range. You mentioned that they might do this with an overpair which is true but would they be just calling behind with this overpair pre flop? I am not sure the answer on that because I have not played with them but my default answer would be no. So to me they dont have an overpair and they are raising. That leaves it to a straight draw (very unlikely 75 or 53) or two pair or better. The only two pair or better that you beat is 64 which is also unlikely given they called a raise. In game I would hate folding this since we flopped two pair but if I was playing well that day I probably would. I dont see a hand we are beating with this line pre flop and on the flop. The re-raise I get if you wont fold since calling makes no sense but I think when you do this as you did here in spots like this, you will find that you are behind probably 19 times out of 20. Tough hand that is bad luck but probably could have been avoided by folding pre and also ranging your opponent with all streets information and not just the current street.

Preflop
As mentioned in the previous post defending with J4s is a little marginal against a 3BB open. Its more ok against a mini-raise. The main issue is your reverse implied odds, if for instance the flop is J63, and someone has you outkicked. Try to stay out of shitty spots like that in general.

Flop
I am happy to play for all the chips with top and bottom against two players with wide ranges. I do prefer a check-raise though, because I think, BTN will C-bet this fairly dry J high board a decent amount of the time. As played yeah I am getting it in when raised. Lets rock n roll.

Results
Just an unfortunate cooler spot, that he flopped a set against your two pair. Luckily these 25c 45-mans and 90-mans runs all the time, so just register for another one.

300HPGOD said:

I dont see a hand we are beating with this line pre flop and on the flop.

Click to expand...

64s (2 combos), AJ (8 combos), KJ (8 combos) etc. The worse the opponent is, that more he will overvalue top pair and raise it "for protection". Hero only lose to 66 (3 combos) and 44 (1 combo), since JJ would probably 3-bet pre and J6 would fold. Wanting to fold here is results oriented. Its basically the same as folding bottom set, because he might have a better set.

fundiver199 said:

64s (2 combos), AJ (8 combos), KJ (8 combos) etc. The worse the opponent is, that more he will overvalue top pair and raise it "for protection". Hero only lose to 66 (3 combos) and 44 (1 combo), since JJ would probably 3-bet pre and J6 would fold. Wanting to fold here is results oriented. Its basically the same as folding bottom set, because he might have a better set.

Click to expand...

We will just be disagreeing about this one but I am not being results oriented based on this hands results, I am writing what I think. I said in my post I throw out the straight draws and throw out overpairs since there was a raise in previous action before this villain and that raise was only called and not re raised. The hands you mention like AJ, KJ and so on I am not sure get re-raised. You say that bad opponents will do that with those hands which is very true but we have no read on the villain. We can't assume they suck so that is also why I am discounting heavily that they are raising AJ and especially KJ or QJ in this spot. Not saying my logic is right or yours is wrong just more trying to clear my name of being results oriented. I am ranging him differently than you and that is why we are coming to different conclusions.

300HPGOD said:

We will just be disagreeing about this one but I am not being results oriented based on this hands results, I am writing what I think.

Click to expand...

Certainly not trying to turn this into some kind of personal argument. So please accept my apology, if you felt that way

The issue with folding is, that it leaves zero room for error. If we fold, we are basically putting Villain on just one exact hand, which was the one, he had. And we just never have that kind of perfect information. There is always some room for error or some uncertainty. Like maybe 20% of the time he does actually raise his AJ or his draw, or he does actually make a silly slowplay with QQ-AA preflop, and now he think, his trap worked. The point is we dont know.

So regardless of stakes and regardless of any reads, we might think, we have, this is always a jamming spot, and doing anything else is going to be a massive mistake in the long run. In top of that this is a 25c SnG, so everyone are beginners, and most also dont care about losing their buyin. So this is not the spot, where you want to attempt that big hero fold on the river with the second nuts, which we sometimes see on TV, and which looks so great, when they are right

nwhitney118 said:

PokerStars, $0.23 + $0.02 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

TheSlayer558 (UTG): 4,732 (237 bb)
Matreiro51 (UTG+1): 1,449 (72 bb)
xSoulzz (MP): 1,379 (69 bb)
Augusto Nery (MP+1): 1,487 (74 bb)
s.Oblique (CO): 1,449 (72 bb)
bonemine (BU): 1,633 (82 bb)
Kbelera25 (SB): 1,489 (74 bb)
nwhitney118 (BB): 1,379 (69 bb)

Pre-Flop: (54) Hero (nwhitney118) is BB with J♣ 4♣
3 players fold, Augusto Nery (MP+1) raises to 60, 1 fold, bonemine (BU) calls 60, 1 fold, nwhitney118 (BB) calls 40

Flop: (214) 6♣ 4♠ J♦ (3 players)
nwhitney118 (BB) bets 120, Augusto Nery (MP+1) calls 120, bonemine (BU) raises to 720, nwhitney118 (BB) raises to 1,316 (all-in), Augusto Nery (MP+1) folds, bonemine (BU) calls 596

Turn: (2,966) 7♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (2,966) Q♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 2,966

Showdown:
nwhitney118 (BB) shows J♣ 4♣ (two pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 34%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

bonemine (BU) shows 6♦ 6♥ (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

bonemine (BU) wins 2,966

Early on in a 0.25c SnG with no reads on villain. They're almost never calling a preflop raise with J6 so the only hand they have me beat with is 66 or 44 (aside from the absolute hail mary set with the two remaining jacks). I wanted to get three streets of value out of my two pair given how dry a flop came down hence the donk bet out, I didn't want it checking around and missing out on value.

After he 3 bets I think given the stakes it's fair to believe V could be doing it with AA, KK or QQ (granted many people would have 3 bet pre however at these stakes it isn't unknown for people to flat). Thoughts? Biggest doubt I have is if people flat with those premium hands enough to warrant me having them in villains range.

Click to expand...

You played good and you think that if you lose you did something wrong but generally this is a cooler and you cant play any other way so this is how poker works.so dont be resultoriented and take it as the 1% of time when you lose and other hands you ll be stronger then your opponent.

nwhitney118 said:

PokerStars, $0.23 + $0.02 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

TheSlayer558 (UTG): 4,732 (237 bb)
Matreiro51 (UTG+1): 1,449 (72 bb)
xSoulzz (MP): 1,379 (69 bb)
Augusto Nery (MP+1): 1,487 (74 bb)
s.Oblique (CO): 1,449 (72 bb)
bonemine (BU): 1,633 (82 bb)
Kbelera25 (SB): 1,489 (74 bb)
nwhitney118 (BB): 1,379 (69 bb)

Pre-Flop: (54) Hero (nwhitney118) is BB with J♣ 4♣
3 players fold, Augusto Nery (MP+1) raises to 60, 1 fold, bonemine (BU) calls 60, 1 fold, nwhitney118 (BB) calls 40

Flop: (214) 6♣ 4♠ J♦ (3 players)
nwhitney118 (BB) bets 120, Augusto Nery (MP+1) calls 120, bonemine (BU) raises to 720, nwhitney118 (BB) raises to 1,316 (all-in), Augusto Nery (MP+1) folds, bonemine (BU) calls 596

Turn: (2,966) 7♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (2,966) Q♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 2,966

Showdown:
nwhitney118 (BB) shows J♣ 4♣ (two pair, Jacks and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 34%, Flop: 13%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

bonemine (BU) shows 6♦ 6♥ (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 66%, Flop: 87%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

bonemine (BU) wins 2,966

Early on in a 0.25c SnG with no reads on villain. They're almost never calling a preflop raise with J6 so the only hand they have me beat with is 66 or 44 (aside from the absolute hail mary set with the two remaining jacks). I wanted to get three streets of value out of my two pair given how dry a flop came down hence the donk bet out, I didn't want it checking around and missing out on value.

After he 3 bets I think given the stakes it's fair to believe V could be doing it with AA, KK or QQ (granted many people would have 3 bet pre however at these stakes it isn't unknown for people to flat). Thoughts? Biggest doubt I have is if people flat with those premium hands enough to warrant me having them in villains range.

Click to expand...

Thank U 4 Posting

To address your biggest doubt the hands a player may raise you with on the flop that could be flatted preflop and you are a head of, let us estimate the possible range and see if it is a call based on a rudimentary estimation.

AA 20% of the time KK 10% QQ depending on the player 50% or more.
99 20%- 88 20% AJ 90%+ KJs 50% QJs 30% 64 100% 75 60%

As we can see from this rudimentary estimation, we should not be folding.

Part of my estimation was that you donk led so the V may think you could be weak more often so more 75 88 99 QJ KJ possibilities.

You can use this basic range estimation to think more deeply about V's ranges. It is a great exercise to do the work yourself when you are learning but of course their are free, range analysis Apps that give you the math as well so check those out. Flopzilla is one.

Some deeper questions you want the answers too that will help you in this player pool are:

Why did this player choose that sizing with 66?
Why on this flop?
Why in that Position?
Why vs you?
Where you the target of the bet sizing or was it the other player?
Why did they expect a call? (They must have expected to be called)
Did they expect the call because of the player Pool? (So nothing to do with your play)
How do we use that player pool tendency- to call too much- to adjust our bet sizing?
How can we narrow all our V's ranges if we know they expect to be called?


Hope this helps

J4 (even suited) is too loose to defend from the BB vs an early position open.

After that, though, the hand becomes a pretty standard cooler with 2 pr vs a set.