$0.25 NLHE MTT: Call short stack allin on bubble?

Devojeff

Devojeff

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/17/36

poker stars, $0.23 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners - Hand Details

Hero (MP1): 6,302 (10.5 bb)
MP2: 7,621 (12.7 bb)
MP3: 21,577 (36 bb)
CO: 3,740 (6.2 bb)
BTN: 10,193 (17 bb)
SB: 1,414 (2.4 bb)
BB: 5,288 (8.8 bb)
UTG+2: 11,365 (18.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:diamond: J:heart:
UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 1,200, MP2 raises to 7,571 and is all-in, 6 folds


Villain 3bet allin from MP2 (12 BBs) on my bet from MP1, with just 1 player from ITM, i just play safe here with 3 other players shorter than me, could i call here to get a bigger stack and maybe get 1st easier?
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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With AJ and a table where the antes have started already, your M is 5.

(For more on M, see here:
https://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Poker-Tournaments-M-Calculator
and here:
https://www.888poker.com/magazine/strategy/m-ratio-poker/
)

I'd raise all-in.

As played:

How far away is the bubble? Or are you in the money?

You mention your stack is close to the median for this table.
Assuming there are other tables, you need to compare yourself to everyone, not just the players at this table.

If you are not near the bubble, I call.

MP2's situation is nearly as bad as yours, so he may be 3-betting here with a wider range than usual.

Still, you are probably behind.

But you have already invested two BBs, the antes are hurting you every hand, and the blinds will be hitting you soon. You are desperate. :(
 
Devojeff

Devojeff

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How far away is the bubble? Or are you in the money?

You mention your stack is close to the median for this table.
Assuming there are other tables, you need to compare yourself to everyone, not just the players at this table.

If you are not near the bubble, I call.

It's final table, just 1 player from the money (7 places get paid)
 
A

AlexTheOwl

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It's final table, just 1 player from the money (7 places get paid)

In that case we can use something called ICM.

For exact results, we would need to know the amounts of the prizes at each level, and enter them into a tool like ICMizer (which has a free trial).

I'm guessing that the answers would be:

- shove AJo. ICM will only deal with shoving or folding, not the smaller raise that actually happened. But with an M this low, shoving and folding are the only two reasonable options. I'm fairly certain a shove is correct here.

- as played, fold to the re-raise. That's what I would do if I was at the table, but I am not at all sure that ICM will find it to be correct.
 
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