$0.25 NLHE MTT: Bet or check?

PokerStars - 10/20 Ante 3 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 74.85 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 1)
BTN: 79.75 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
SB: 73.85 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 79.75 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
UTG: 74.85 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: 74.85 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
Hero (MP): 74.85 BB
MP+1: 74.85 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+2: 67.4 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has Q:spade: A:spade:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (6.65 BB, 2 players) Q:heart: 3:heart: J:club:
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.65 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, BB calls 10 BB

River: (34.65 BB, 2 players) K:heart:
BB checks, Hero ???


What do you guys do here? Bet or check?

Check back, it's hard for you to have any bluffs in this spot and I don't think that worse hand will call you.

The king on the river has changed the situation a lot, now you have middle pair with top kicker on wet board so I would check here and see the showdown..

AviCKter said:

Bet 1/3rd Pot with the intention to fold to a Big re-raise.

On a side note, turn bet was way too large IMO, around 1/2 Pot would be a good sizing.

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Why would you do that? If I dont know why I cant learn.

The turn bet being 1/2 instead of 2/3 seems weird in my opinion. I still want to bet for value and I dont want him to complete potential flush draws by giving him better odds to call.

Supmargy said:

Why would you do that? If I dont know why I cant learn.

The turn bet being 1/2 instead of 2/3 seems weird in my opinion. I still want to bet for value and I dont want him to complete potential flush draws by giving him better odds to call.

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So, you're just putting him on a flush draw? What about other combinations? Q? J? 3? medium pairs? Other draws? He defended from the BB, right?

You do realize that a flush draw has only 19.56% (9 cards out of 46 unknown) on the river, right? You're laying him 28.57% on a 19.56% shot, with your 2/3 pot bet. While if you're betting 1/2 pot, you're laying him 25% on a 19.56% shot. Which one is better? Do you think making him fold is better for you or do you think making him call the turn bet is better, with his draws?

Isn't it better for you if your opponent makes a mistake against you?

In that position I would have folded AQ (but Im a very tight aggressive player), then on the flop I would have been more aggressive at the time of betting, on the river the correct decision in that situation to me is "check".

hurtadoak said:

In that position I would have folded AQ (but Im a very tight aggressive player),

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whaaaaa????

AviCKter said:

Bet 1/3rd Pot with the intention to fold to a Big re-raise.

On a side note, turn bet was way too large IMO, around 1/2 Pot would be a good sizing.

Click to expand...

I agree with the small river bet at this buy-in.
You don't want to pump up the pot too much with just 2nd pair, and want to minimize your potential losses if 3-bet, or if you lose the showdown.
But with so many calling stations at these stakes, there is still value to be had from weaker queens, jacks, and lower pocket pairs.
Also, the fact that the river completes flush and straight draws means that sometimes even a hand like two pair will fold to a bet here.

On the turn, as I recently wrote in another hand analysis thread, at the micros players who will call a half pot bet will almost always call up to a 3/4 pot bet.
I have no statistics to prove this, but that has been my experience. So I like the larger sizing. I'd even go for a pot sized bet here.
Hero is betting for two reasons, to build a larger pot while he is probably ahead, and for protection from flush draws, the straight draw, and overcards.
Having just top pair on a dangerous board, I want the villain to call, but I am not crying too much if the villain folds.

Alucard said:

whaaaaa????

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he is VERY tight

Check mate !!!!