Weird Hand: Relative Value (need analysis please)

I have a really interesting hand and I'd like to hear some thoughts on it.

Table is 1/2 - 200NL, online. Fairly reg table, with one guy who bought in half stack and does that min bet thing a lot, and another guy who's maybe just a hair call-happy. Everyone else is a thinking player. Particularly my villain who's capable of mixing things up and seems to navigate his spots well.

Me: About 1 Buy In
Villain: About a Buy In and a half.

I'm dealt pocket 7s on the button. Villain it UTG +1. 6 Handed Table.

Villain raises to $6, which is his standard raise. Folds around, I flat. BB calls.

Flop:

Kd 10h 7d.

BB checks. Villain bets $14 (3/4 pot apprx). I call. BB folds.

Turn:

Kc

Villain tanks, then bets $35. Which is just under 3/4 pot. I take a minute to figure out if I want to call or raise. Ultimately I decide to call.

River:

Qh

Villain checks.

Now here I'm in a weird spot. I don't know what to make of the check. So I'm tanking again. Rather than tell you what happened, I'd like to know what you do in this spot.


But here's what I'm thinking:

A) I want to bet for value, and I get called by AK, KJ, and AJ. Which is a pretty significant portion of his range. But I'm not totally thrilled about the Q, because KQ is in his range, as is KT, as are pocket Q and pocket tens. So I'm ahead of most his range, but there's also a fair portion of his range ahead of me. And I'm genuinely confused by the check. I can't tell if he's checking for pot control or if he's expecting me to bet nor what he would expect me to bet with.

B) Being that my inclination would be to bet here, I'm also genuinely not sure how to size it. On the one hand he might realize that AK is vulnerable on that board but is looking to show down - so here I want to get as close to pot sized as possible. Also, there's a couple missed draws out there since I'm on the button, so I could overbet to look bluffy (although I think this is usually transparent). Maybe I want him to raise me if he missed a draw or realizes he might not be good, or at the very least call without laying down a smaller hand like AA or JJ or AT, so a small bet might be in order. BUT - I have to be careful what I wish for because if he does CR me here I have to at least consider folding.


So - what do I do?

If you think from the villain's perspective, your range on river is trips Kings or better, busted FD including QJ(diamonds) AT( diamonds). QJ(d) & AT(d) will check behind. Others hands you will mostly bet. In my guess, he wants to chk/call or chk/fold here. Hands that he will call are probably - AA, JJ, 99, 88, AT , maybe QJ.

And because he tanked after the turn, I don't think it hit him. But if he had a pair in his hand, he can feel more confident about it because chances of you having a K are less now.

So, I think you should bet ~half pot.

I don't think he shows up here with Kx or FH's too often. It doesn't make sense to barrel flop and turn and then risk a check through on the river if he's got a big value hand, especially since you haven't shown any aggression at any point in the hand.

I'm also not a fan of your flop and turn calls. I much prefer raising flop in a 3-way pot. If not raising flop, def raise turn.

^I totally agree. I have very little information if I don't raise the flop and I have someone acting behind me. So I definitely miss stepped and left myself both with less information and even a little vulnerable.

It's not so much about information but rather value. In general, you bet for value or as a bluff. In this case, the board hit enough of villain's range to raise for value.

Spot on! Thank you!

This is a spot where you raise for value comfortably, and every once and awhile villain shows you a better hand and you just shrug it off.

If your beat in this spot its a serious cooler. Villain is more likely to check/call with a hand that can't really value bet but has significant showdown (such as AdQd)

IMO this IS in fact a spot where you don't have enough information to tell you whether your ahead or behind. Your playing cash/ring games to generate a long term profit. Try to remember that your action may not be the last! Suppose you bet then get a shove on top of your head??? Think your dilema is tough now wait until your shoved on! I think this is a spot where you can either win and give off a false passive/tight and win the hand even though for less than max value or loose a cooler river card for the very minimum. I think a check down is in your favor for the rest of the session your playing. We talk or I should say 'others' talk all the time about getting MAX value on your hand. Remember they are saying that about YOUR MONEY! I've always wondered if they would say the same about those spots if you were sitting down with THEIR money? A hand is a hand but a session is on going. Keep on the tracks and pick up another spot with an easier player to bash over the head with your chips! Smart play will also earn you long term respect for the reg's in the game.

Well, that's the other side of the coin for me. In that particular spot, and I think in a lot of situations I think a lot of the hands I'm beating would actually lead out the river, try to control the pot.


Ultimately I went for a value bet on the river which I sized just high enough to basically commit myself (I bet $70 into $117, leaving me apprx. another $70) behind. Villain raised it up enough to put me all in. I think he realized I had something that I would normally value bet, and would probably commit myself.

I ended up folding. The only hand I could see doing this that I was beating was AJ, and I couldn't see any AJ playing the way he played it unless it was AdJd. Maybe AK but I really felt AK would bet the river.

Reading it 3-4 times more trying to really bite down on it and help think this thing through, I don't know if to guess whether it was pocket 10's, QQ or KQ. The reraise on the river I'm almost more willing to bet that he's putting you on pocket tens and he got ahead with KQ. After the tank then bet on the turn I can only imagine what he was thinking when you smooth called him twice. Maybe he felt the river made him but realized it helped make your hand to and expected a bet he could force a commitment from? If he has KQ and he's good (which you mention) he's giving you some respect for a hand with two calls. I know I'm not happy when a solid player calls me twice in a cash game with the river to go. Donk, different dynamic but solid player has got to be thinking about having something or able to represent something strong enough to sit you down. I lean towards QQ-KQ over pocket tens as he may have wanted a check raise for some value but price you out of a draw on the flop. Maybe he put you on AK? Either way that sucks you did in fact get jammed up on the river with no showdown I think your fold was correct. I had a hand similar to that playing brick $1/$2 a few months ago and then to have the player hollywood his bluff on the ace while I folded Jacks thinking the player behind me folded an ace and he folded 10's figuring 'what the hell else could he have but the ace'? I thought the second player had a n ace and was trapping us both..... Funny some of these hands we find. I don't think there is a fool proof correction for it either. Sometimes we just don't like what we see with who is in the hand with us and it makes sense to fold....It was probably a $70 pot won on air. The guy who folded his tens said to me as he was waving to the gentlemen who bluffed then left, "make sure that fkr sits between us by two seats apiece the next time he shows up. I just nodded and said, "I might even stake you to play that day as long as I'm the one two seats to his left".... Never happened, neither one of us could cheat a squirrel out of an empty peanut shell but still, I think we both needed the vent/rant/laugh. Hopefully this discussion has the hair on your arms falling back down.

Honestly, it was a bummer, but definitely not the first time I put a house down. I just thought the hand was interesting because of the check on the river. I found it super polarizing. I think because his momentum changed the river changed his hand, because he could have thought the Q would have changed my hand much.

Most of the times villain will bet a house if not he is loosing river value

Plus check his river aggression on your HUD stats for info and lead out half pot u will get your information then

So if he had bet the river you don't plan on 2 betting the river?

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Thinker_145 said:

So if he had bet the river you don't plan on 2 betting the river?

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I would not have knowing how many hands in that range that crush me. He did mention this player IS CAPABLE of having a wider range to open and play it correctly.

pokervike said:

I would not have knowing how many hands in that range that crush me. He did mention this player IS CAPABLE of having a wider range to open and play it correctly.

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So why even play a hand like 77 to begin with if we are to be so negative? If we give so much credit to our opponent that he won't pay us off with a worse hand then as I said why even play such hands? 77 will almost always be crushed by something in the Villain's range.

I love the whole hand analysis but I think you got lost the whole way down. Don't just think about that hand he has but what is he putting you on when he sees the flop, turn and river. First thing, as you already figured out, was to raise at least the flop, if not then def the turn. That would give you more information. But if you play it like you did and he checks the river and your confused as to what he is checking with, my motto is "When in Doubt Check it Out" You do not have the nuts on the river so if you are confused where you are in the hand against him then just check. I like that better than not having a plan, betting the river and folding to a raise. Thanks for the post!

Thinker_145 said:

So why even play a hand like 77 to begin with if we are to be so negative? If we give so much credit to our opponent that he won't pay us off with a worse hand then as I said why even play such hands? 77 will almost always be crushed by something in the Villain's range.

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I guess to some aspect of 'why play 77' maybe I should have mentioned "raising pre vs. a person who can play a wide range might give you position and strength to control the hand post flop".

I felt it was a question about post flop scenario's, so I did not question his range for getting involved with a hand. Four braodway cards on the street does create a very unique situation when it is the low card our commentator made a hand with. the kings pairing the turn seems too good to be true at first then the river seems to prove nothing in life is free.

Personally, if your asking, "would I call with a hand like 77 pre vs. a strong player who had already committed to the pot". Most of the time that answer is "no". I would want something that could bite harder and be played faster than middle of the road marginal hands. I would want something more like AA, KK, AKs or the far swing to the other side of the deck like 4-5s 5-6s 6-7s. I would rather get involved with 12 hands vs. the village idiot than to get involved with the table captain for a hand that equaled the same chip value as all of the other combined. Again. I thought it was more of a post turn post river discussion and I chose not to condemn him for a hand I can't honestly say I would 'always' fold pre in that spot.

Great point to bring to the discussion though! "why play a hand you are always facing tough choices with?" pocket 7's QJ always seem to bring out the 'edge of your seat moments'. I do still believe you have to credit him with something big enough he may play back at you with. So a raise when you are ready to showdown is slapping the bee's nest a bit in my opinion especially when the raiser hands it to you to slap by checking the river after two barrels on a board people aren't normally bluffing with two barrels. unless the stone cold nuts are near by. For all we know he had KK with the intention of 4b shoving pre and it went horrible wrong pre and got back on track with the turn. I can remember many hands where I got cute, got in trouble then the deck saved me.

I played 7s because I didn't think I would end up in such a weird spot. And, yes, had my opponent bet the river as well I would have shoved it. The check just threw me off.

But looking back at it, I don't hate bet on the river. I'm not sure I like my fold, I only need to be winning like once out of four times to make that call. But really I should have put in a raise on the flop or the turn. That's really where I messed up. I lost value and gave my opponent a chance to get in front.

I am never folding a full house with only 1 pair on the board unless I have a super good read on the Villain which hardly happens in online poker.

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I'd love a check here to see the opponent's hand if it wouldn't give the whole table the impression they could shove you around on a boat.

Honestly, a tiny value bet/fold may be more affordable in the long run unless you were comfortable standing-up at the end of this hand.

Pot not small, so you can grab this with check, why not .. Maybe he check to you and waiting to re-raise your VALUE bet .. so, I think check was the best move .. But, small value bet also not a bad idea!

You called with 77 and have a house value bet call river shove and rebuy if u loose simple !

Weisssound said:

Well, that's the other side of the coin for me. In that particular spot, and I think in a lot of situations I think a lot of the hands I'm beating would actually lead out the river, try to control the pot.


Ultimately I went for a value bet on the river which I sized just high enough to basically commit myself (I bet $70 into $117, leaving me apprx. another $70) behind. Villain raised it up enough to put me all in. I think he realized I had something that I would normally value bet, and would probably commit myself.

I ended up folding. The only hand I could see doing this that I was beating was AJ, and I couldn't see any AJ playing the way he played it unless it was AdJd. Maybe AK but I really felt AK would bet the river.

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When you do highlighted text #1, you can't do highlighted text #2. I would have raised the flop or turn (would prefer flop), but once you play the hand call/call/bet, you can't fold to the shove.

Really interesting spot. I would probably have checked on the river. This because it is so likely that they are trapping you, he showed pretty much aggression before, and you kept calling. So especially on that turn, where he bets big and you call, he will definitely put you on a good hand. When the river completed another one of his boat hands (KQ), he probably thought that you had a hand, you would bet on the river after calling 2x. Really honestly I think he had either AK (which he overvalued in that case), or TT or KQ. Really good laydown in my opinion, I don't think any good reg will make this kind of bluff or play with trips. Trips would just have called your bet. (really maybe, AK for the reraise, but after that scarecard Q, not so likely). All the other hands he has, are beating you. Pretty obviously, he opened from UTG +1, so it is reasonable likely that he has top 5% of hands and after this play, I think you should give him credit.

I also agree on raising the flop, most top pair/trips/straightdraw would possibly call, so plenty of worse hands that can call, and you get more info he bets out again on the turn.