Value bet the turn? + Strange showdown

R

Rafael Chow

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Xeester - Cash game pokerstars
Blindes : 0.02 $/0.05 $
[SB] Player 4 - 100 bb
[BB] Player 5 - 80 bb
[UTG] Player 6 - 100 bb
[UTG+1] Player 8 - 131 bb
[UTG+2] HERO - 162 bb
[HJ] Player 1 - 195 bb
[CO] Player 2 - 119 bb
[BTN] Player 3 - 183 bb
*** PREFLOP ***[AD,AH]
Player 6 [UTG] : Raises 0.10$
Player 8 [UTG+1] : Folds
HERO [UTG+2] : Raises 0.50$
Player 1 [HJ] : Folds
Player 2 [CO] : Folds
Player 3 [BTN] : Folds
Player 4 [SB] : Folds
Player 5 [BB] : Folds
Player 6 [UTG] : Calls 0.40$
*** FLOP ***[AC,TD,6H]
Player 6 [UTG] : Checks
HERO [UTG+2] : Bets 0.40$
Player 6 [UTG] : Calls 0.40$
*** TURN ***[AC,TD,6H,5D]
Player 6 [UTG] : Checks
HERO [UTG+2] : Checks
*** RIVER ***[AC,TD,6H,5D,4C]
Player 6 [UTG] : Bets 1.25$
HERO [UTG+2] : Raises 5.54$
Player 6 [UTG] : Calls 2.85$
HERO [UTG+2] : Uncalled bet 1.44$
*** SHOWDOWN ***
HERO [UTG+2] : Shows [AD,AH]
Player 6 [UTG] : Shows [8D,7D]

Villain stats (315 hands)
VPiP:21 PF:16 AF 41 3B:6 4B:46

I thought that not many hands would continue on the river if I had bet on the turn. There weren't many Ax combos (4 AK) and 6 combos of sets. I assessed that there were a lot more combos of floating hands like KQ, QJ and KJ that would always bet on the river, trying to make me fold KK, QQ and maybe AQs. Another reason to check the turn was to mix my top set with some "foldable" hands on such board like KK an QQ.

I didn`t think that the river was a scare card as it didn't complete that many draws of his perceived range so I thought that there were only missed draws, sets and AK on his betting range.

Did I mis-read his range very badly? Should I have taken another line and bet the turn?
 
TimovieMan

TimovieMan

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Of course, value-bet the turn. Why would you check this behind? You're holding the nuts.

Also bet the flop bigger. You're missing value here.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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The thing is, in this situation, you want weaker made hands to continue, but you don't want big draws to continue. While made hand is less likely to improve enough to beat you, it is more likely to call a turn bet. At the same time straight and flush draws are more likely to improve enough to beat you, but less likely to continue against a turn bet. There's literally no downside to betting this turn.

Also, what hands are going to give you value on the river that aren't going to give you value on the turn?
 
M

Mafinor

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you should balue bet this hands of course
 
R

Rafael Chow

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So a good size would be around 80% of the pot?
 
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nkat

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I get your thinking.. not bad idea but too fancy for these stakes.. just go ahaed and bet
 
mbrenneman0

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2/3 to 3/4 is appropriate.

55% is too little, gives villain good implied odds and 80% is a little too much, I think it folds out a lot of the hands that we want to call.

As played, pot on the turn was 1.87 so bet about 1.35 on the turn.

Although you should have bet 70 on the flop, which would make the pot on the turn 2.45 at which point you can bet 1.70
 
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nkat

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hi MB.. implied odds against what holdings? KQ? Set mining? 4 and 2 outs respectively, having AA makes it difficult for opp. to have anything here
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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having AA makes it difficult for opp. to have anything here

How so?

Villain could have KQ, QJ, 89, which have 4 outs.
He could have a flush draw, which is 9 outs.
Or he could even have a combo draw which is 12 outs.

And although the pot odds are poor for these hands on a half pot bet, the ammount they could win if they complete on the river is more than the current pot. The value they could win is basically the pot plus the rest of hero's whole stack.
 
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nkat

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How so?

Villain could have KQ, QJ, 89, which have 4 outs.
He could have a flush draw, which is 9 outs.
Or he could even have a combo draw which is 12 outs.

And although the pot odds are poor for these hands on a half pot bet, the ammount they could win if they complete on the river is more than the current pot. The value they could win is basically the pot plus the rest of hero's whole stack.


The board is rainbow which takes flush draws out, having AA with A on board makes it difficult for opp. to have Ax. Tx doesn't make up much of their range. 4 outs?.. I'm fine if they're calling 1/2 pot bets with 4 outs. Plus we have redraws anyway.. weee! :)
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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The board is rainbow which takes flush draws out, having AA with A on board makes it difficult for opp. to have Ax. Tx doesn't make up much of their range. 4 outs?.. I'm fine if they're calling 1/2 pot bets with 4 outs. Plus we have redraws anyway.. weee! :)

so what about the straight draws I mentioned?
and im pretty sure theres about a 10% chance they have two diamonds, so i dont think we should totally rule flush draws out right?
If I'm villain and if I have KQ, im calling hero's flop bet and checking through the turn every time.
 
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nkat

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so what about the straight draws I mentioned?
and im pretty sure theres about a 10% chance they have two diamonds, so i dont think we should totally rule flush draws out right?
If I'm villain and if I have KQ, im calling hero's flop bet and checking through the turn every time.


Ah, I apologise I was thinking about the flop bet for some reason. yes the original Q. was turn bet..

Flush draws will be rare here.. specifically 67dd, KQdd, KJdd, 89dd,78dd. That's only 5 combos, given the rest of his range will be Tx, KQ, KJ, AT+ I'm still betting less. 80% will fold too much out
 
polo kwan

polo kwan

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value bet on turn definately.
but what you guys fold if you were the villian against this play on turn?
i do think i will fold only when over bet
 
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H

hopsing911

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The thing is, in this situation, you want weaker made hands to continue, but you don't want big draws to continue. While made hand is less likely to improve enough to beat you, it is more likely to call a turn bet. At the same time straight and flush draws are more likely to improve enough to beat you, but less likely to continue against a turn bet. There's literally no downside to betting this turn.

Also, what hands are going to give you value on the river that aren't going to give you value on the turn?

^^^what he said, higher bet on flop & start building. Bet 75% at least on turn to push draws out. If he is the type that likes to float Daniel N style. He is never folding lol

good luck:)
 
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MakeUcryalot

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Bet less preflop, bet more on the flop, bet pot on the turn fold river.
 
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