Unsure about my call

Alright, involved in a hand recently and not sure if I have it figured correctly, perhaps someone could help. It's more of an odds exercise and I just have a question, so I'll post the whole hand.

pokerstars Game #14320990157: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/01/04 - 16:12:46 (ET)
Table 'Shapleya' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Python817 ($29.85 in chips)
Seat 2: L0LDonkam3nt ($26.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Str8Prophet ($13.80 in chips)
Seat 4: allizdoR ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 5: JulienRoy20 ($24.85 in chips)
Seat 6: HazyDav3y ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 7: SexiJen ($25.35 in chips)
Seat 8: MrBove ($22.30 in chips)
Seat 9: Fabus ($30.10 in chips)
SexiJen: posts small blind $0.10
MrBove: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrBove [Qs 9s]
Fabus: folds
Python817: folds
L0LDonkam3nt: folds
Str8Prophet: folds
allizdoR: folds
JulienRoy20: folds
HazyDav3y: calls $0.25
SexiJen: calls $0.15
MrBove: checks
*** FLOP *** [5d Jd 7s]
SexiJen: checks
MrBove: checks
HazyDav3y: checks
*** TURN *** [5d Jd 7s] 2♠
SexiJen: checks
MrBove: bets $0.40
HazyDav3y: raises $0.40 to $0.80
SexiJen: folds
MrBove: calls $0.40
*** RIVER *** [5d Jd 7s 2s] J♥
MrBove: checks
HazyDav3y: bets $2.50
MrBove: folds
HazyDav3y collected $2.25 from pot
HazyDav3y: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.35 | Rake $0.10
Board [5d Jd 7s 2s Jh]
Seat 1: Python817 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: L0LDonkam3nt folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Str8Prophet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: allizdoR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: JulienRoy20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: HazyDav3y (button) collected ($2.25)
Seat 7: SexiJen (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 8: MrBove (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 9: Fabus folded before Flop (didn't bet)



Okay so no one showed aggression on the flop and then the turn presented me with the flush draw. Best to bet and see where you are, right? Even though I'm first to act? I'm not used to making this play, wondering if it's the right one in the long run.

So then I'm raised. It will cost me another 0.40 into a pot of 1.55, which figures out to be 3.875 to 1. So 4 to 1, which is what a flush is. When your pot odds equal the odds you will hit your hand, is it a profitable play?

Also, this bet occured on the turn. With these calculations do you have to account for the fact there is only one card left and not 2? 9 outs is 9 outs, I'm just unsure if you have to change your thinking a bit because it's the turn.

I apologize if this post is all math related and not that creative, I'm just trying to get these concepts down.

Thanks in advance!
-Mike

MrBove said:

So then I'm raised. It will cost me another 0.40 into a pot of 1.55, which figures out to be 3.875 to 1. So 4 to 1, which is what a flush is. When your pot odds equal the odds you will hit your hand, is it a profitable play?

Also, this bet occured on the turn. With these calculations do you have to account for the fact there is only one card left and not 2? 9 outs is 9 outs, I'm just unsure if you have to change your thinking a bit because it's the turn.

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9 outs is still 9 outs, but on the turn you've only got one chance left to hit them (the river), whereas on the flop you've got two chances (the turn, and the river)

On the flop with 9 outs you're about 35% to hit by the river, whereas on the turn you're only about 20% to hit your card. Which, unless my math is off, means you're not getting the right price to call the turn in this hand - you'd need to be getting pot odds more like 5:1

This is what I figured, I just wasn't sure the way to adjust the calculations.

MrBove said:

This is what I figured, I just wasn't sure the way to adjust the calculations.

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Use the rule of 4 & 2 to quickly calculate your odds of making your hand on the fly. Multiply the number of outs by 2 if you have 1 card to come, and by 4 if you have 2 cards to come.

For example. You're playing [Qs9s], and on the turn, you have a flush draw, and an overcard (the queen). Thus, given the action & assuming your outs are clean, I'd say you have 9 spades plus 3 queens to give you the winning hand. Thus, using the rule of 4 & 2, I'd say your percentage of winning the hand on the river are about (9+3)*2 = 24%. (The actual odds, if you were up against a hand like JT, is 27%. The rule of 4 & 2 is just a very close approximation.)

So you had a 1:3 draw, and you were getting about 1:4 (0.4/1.95 = ~21%) on your money. The call is fine.

However, the trap you need to avoid is counting dead outs. If he's playing something like [As3s] then you no longer have those 9 flush outs, and you're drawing to nothing but your queens & 9's. Or he could have a diamond draw, meaning the Queen of diamonds isn't one of your outs. Given his raise on the turn, I'd suspect a strong possibility that he picked up a draw as well. So it wouldn't be out of the question to fold either.

Also, the overbet on the river screams "go away". I believe he is bluffing his broken draw, or he gained more confidence that his mid-pair is good. Either way, you can't call.

As played, I like the way you played the hand. You might've considered raising preflop, but the limp isn't a capital sin. Its tough to play draws well from early position, and I think this went down about as well as it possibly could, given the way the cards fell.

PS - I like this hold'em odds calculator.

Very standard play here, MB. The turn bet is good since you can a) push out a lot of better hands like ace-high, king-high, some pairs etc, and b) you also have outs if you're called.

As for the odds, you're actually getting 4.875:1 (.75 preflop + your .40 bet + .80 raise / .40 to call = 4.875) so it's a very easy call.

A simple way of thinking of it is that you're about 4:1 to make your flush from flop to turn OR from turn to river, and about 2:1 from flop to river.

Generally you only need 3:1 or so to call for a flush draw though because of the potential money you can win after you do hit (read: implied odds).

Try looking through the articles section, it should help.

Fold preflop and I disagree with Chuck about the turn bet being fine: you have to look at your effective odds in this situation. Your bet of .40 in a .75 pot needs to work 55% of the time plus to show a profit. With opponents almost never folding even a pair of twos here on the turn @ 25NL (see also, str8 draw, smaller flush draw, bigger pair, small pp), we need both of them to not hit. Since they are both 1/3 to hit the flop, this means that it happens around 11% of the time: the pot is small, the bet is probably too big for our minuscule FE, even if we discount some hands that might not call.

On the turn, you have payed .80 to win 1.7 (you cannot count the money you have bet as being pot money since it's in the same round of betting and you have insufficient FE). This is nowhere near the right odds.

Now, my scenario is quite dramatic and the call is not all that bad because what you lack in effective odds, you make up for it somewhat in pot odds (counting your bet in the pot) and implied odds: runner-runner flushes sometimes get more action than if the two flush cards were present on the flop and you stand to make maybe 1.50 on average, wich means you were paying .80 to win 3.2 (about right). You also can factor in 1 or two queens outs to calculations, giving you added equity. I still dislike i though.

But I fold preflop in such a tiny spot. You are giving massive implied odds here.

jeffred1111 said:

But I fold preflop in such a tiny spot. You are giving massive implied odds here.

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MrBove: posts big blind $0.25..... MrBove: checks

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And while mathematically your turn bet may have been wrong, I like it a lot. This pot has a for sale sign on it, and its doubtful that the 2 helped anyone but us, or some weird straight draws. I say fire away!

Also, I think its fair to say that any bet by you that has been called is now in the pot, even if it was called & then raised in the same betting round. If you fold you're folding it away, so its in the pot in my book.

I thought he had limped OTB. Sorry OP, this is what happens when I post semi drunk after sleeping 14 hours in three days combined.

Also, I think its fair to say that any bet by you that has been called is now in the pot, even if it was called & then raised in the same betting round. If you fold you're folding it away, so its in the pot in my book.

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Yeah, but the thing is, villain played perfectly against us. If we take Fundamental Theorem of Poker, he played his cards the same way as he would've played them if he had seen them (raising us since we're on the come) while capitalizing on a bet that was a losing proposition. In this spot, you cannot argue with math: you need villains to be folding 55% + of the time, and they aren't doing so more than 44% of the time (screwed up my calc big time in first post). Against one villain, this is a winning bet, the more villain you add, the worst your odds are of succeeding while you still need to be tthe same in a minuscule pot.

So yeah, OP invested .80 to draw to his flush + 1 overcard, while he could have invested only .40 (or nothing if it was checked around). I even would've liked a c/r better than a b/c since it would've increased our FE (suddenly, a pair of deuces or hotter air is not calling anymore).

Where does that 55% come from? You win .75 if the bluff works, and lose .4 if it doesn't. That's about a 2:1 ratio and so it only needs to work 33% of the time to break even.

I don't think it's right to look at it as paying .8 on the turn to hit the flush. That's 100% hindsight decision making. The point is that you don't know that you'll have to pay .8 (and if you did, you certainly wouldn't bluff). Each decision has to be held separately, so it's a decision to bluff .4 and then a new separate decision to call .4.

I agree with the decision to bluff. You're about as unlikely to get a check-down on the turn as you are to pull off the bluff, so in other words the EV of checking the turn is approximately 0. With the bluff, even if it doesn't work the necessary 33% of the time to break even, you will almost always see the river, where you have a 20% chance of winning the 0.75 and probably a little more with a river bet.

i award viking the kathy liebert medal of excellence in this thread. this turn bet is fine and standard. jeffred, a lot of what you're saying seems kind of results oriented. yeah, c/r-ing does have more FE but a) it costs us more to try, and b) we can't predict the future and know if he's going to bet, especially given the action up to this point

everything about the way you played this hands seems good. Checking on bb with rag, fair enough. Checking a missed flop fair enough, Betting at a pot thinking your bet could take it down and if not you have outs to a flush draw. Calling the raise is pretty standar aswell imo based on the fact that if he likes his hand enough to check raise, i think we have large enough implied odds to call here, since if a spade hits that doesnt pair the board, we have the opportunity to win a few bucks on river better which will make up for the lack of pot odds

jeffred1111 said:

Yeah, but the thing is, villain played perfectly against us. If we take Fundamental Theorem of Poker, he played his cards the same way as he would've played them if he had seen them (raising us since we're on the come) while capitalizing on a bet that was a losing proposition.

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I see what you're getting at, but fail to see how check-minraising (and giving us 5:1 with a flush draw in the process) can be a perfect play here.

We would need exact hand ranges of both our opponents to calculate the ev of betting that turn, but getting almost 3:1 on our bet it would mean that we need to be successful %25 of the time, and that's not including the times we get called and outdraw our opponent.

Correct me if I'm wrong, I just don't see how the turn bet is -ev.