Turned Nuts with 2 Flush Draws

pokerstars GAME #16546858633: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/07 - 01:13:44 (ET)
Table 'Pariana IV' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Virus3232 ($31.95 in chips)
Seat 2: zachvac ($47.20 in chips)
Seat 3: jekyll86 ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: O-TiGreTon-O ($47.95 in chips)
Seat 5: VeRiTas 14 ($6.65 in chips)
Seat 6: RADD1 ($14.30 in chips)
Seat 8: boogs52 ($10.40 in chips)
Seat 9: amarn ($25 in chips)
O-TiGreTon-O: posts small blind $0.10
VeRiTas 14: posts big blind $0.25
SCHRECK1323: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zachvac [Th 9c]
RADD1: folds
boogs52: folds
amarn: folds
Virus3232: folds
zachvac: raises $0.75 to $1
jekyll86: folds
O-TiGreTon-O: calls $0.90
VeRiTas 14: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c 8s 4c]
O-TiGreTon-O: checks
zachvac: bets $1.60
O-TiGreTon-O: calls $1.60
*** TURN *** [6c 8s 4c] [7s]
O-TiGreTon-O: bets $4.25
zachvac: ??????

Now the tough part here is that we're both deepstacked. I obviously can't slowplay this because I'm pretty sure I give implied odds to either flush draw if I stack when it hits and I really don't want to be folding this. Do I simply shove here and hope it looks like a draw (semi-bluff) or do I want to try to get more value here. What's the size of the raise?

I think shoving is a little excessive and will probably fold out a lot of two pair/set/FD hands that you want to tag along. I think I just reraise here to a more inviting amount, like $18 or so.

We're deep, as you mentioned, so we really want to swell the pot as much as we can. In general, the deeper we get, the bigger we should size our bets when bluffing or value betting.

Very interested in seeing the final result of the hand. With him calling the pre flop bet OOP he should have a good hand. AK AQ suited. PP. Having called the 1.60 I would eliminate him as chasing the spade flush.

If he's chasing the club flush he has 8 outs. If he's made a set he has 10 outs (but would be very difficult difficult to get away from at this point). If he has a 5 or high PP he's in trouble (I know at .05/.10 it would not be uncommon for a caller with Ace 5 suited to get into this position).

Still working on my game as far as odds go. Flush draw 16%. Set 20% (to make a full house or quads). (Are these odds right?) At this point I want to raise and I want him to call. The question is ... how much?

Ah. That was your question.

I am sure ChuckT is far more experienced at this than I am but I would not like to raise to $18. Means O_Tigre is looking at pot odds of 3:1 ($14 to call to win $42). If O_Tigre is holding JJ or similar it is easy to get away from.

Bear in mind these are just my ramblings but I like a bet of $14-$15.

I think re-popping here is the best line as has been said. I think a bet size of $14-15 may give him decent odds to call, especially with the implied odds. He can then get away from the hand on the river if he hits a blank. The ideal betsize is one were he thinks if I call this, I may as well just shove, which is obv ideal for our hand. $18-20 sounds about right.

brettstix said:

I am sure ChuckT is far more experienced at this than I am but I would not like to raise to $18. Means O_Tigre is looking at pot odds of 3:1 ($14 to call to win $42). If O_Tigre is holding JJ or similar it is easy to get away from.

Bear in mind these are just my ramblings but I like a bet of $14-$15.

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JJ and similar hands are a really small part of his range though, and he rarely plays them this way.

I think his range is heavily weighted towards bluffs, semibluffs like flush draws or two pair hands, and made hands like worse straights. It sucks that we fold out the bluffs, but we can't give a flush/full house draw a cheap card, plus we want value from his worse made hands. Just pot it, I say.

ok well I'm not sure what I was thinking, saw the extremely deep stacks and the fact that I had the nuts and raised to $27. He shoved and I obviously called. 5 on the river and he had 77 for the turned set so I won. I'm just not sure if that bet size was too large. Part of it I thought was that it looks a lot like an overpair-type hand afraid of the flush and straight draws. Still can't believe he paid me off when a 5 was a straight, but luckily he was willing to stack with a set there and he didn't hit his quads or boat and I won a nice pot.

I like the big over-bet here actually. Lots of nl$25 players will call a shove just as readily as a bet of $18-$20 (considering its almost a full stack), so yea if you going to bet $18 may as well go the whole hog on it. I don't think your $27 raise was bad at all.

zachvac said:

ok well I'm not sure what I was thinking, saw the extremely deep stacks and the fact that I had the nuts and raised to $27. He shoved and I obviously called. 5 on the river and he had 77 for the turned set so I won. I'm just not sure if that bet size was too large. Part of it I thought was that it looks a lot like an overpair-type hand afraid of the flush and straight draws. Still can't believe he paid me off when a 5 was a straight, but luckily he was willing to stack with a set there and he didn't hit his quads or boat and I won a nice pot.

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He's not putting you on a 5 based on your pre-flop raise, and that only leaves 9 10, and 8 8. Flip it around and look at the hand from his end, pairs JJ & up are much more likely holdings, and he's got them beat.

tenbob said:

I like the big over-bet here actually. Lots of nl$25 players will call a shove just as readily as a bet of $18-$20 (considering its almost a full stack), so yea if you going to bet $18 may as well go the whole hog on it. I don't think your $27 raise was bad at all.

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In reality there isn't much difference between $18 and $27. If called the remaining money will likely go in on the river anyway. $18 is probably more likely to be called by slightly weaker holdings, if we know opponent had 77 we could size out bet more accurately.

When you hit the turn you need to be thinking about how to price out the FD as well as how you can get it AI on the river. You have $44.60 left, pot is $9.70 w/ opponents bet. Any decent reraise will get the pot sized right (>$22 if opponent calls) to setup your AI on the river. So in this case I say bigger is better since it gives less odds to the flush draw. I would have bet $18.

At those stakes I shove. There's usually someone who will call thinking ur on a bluff.

robwhufc said:

He's not putting you on a 5 based on your pre-flop raise, and that only leaves 9 10, and 8 8. Flip it around and look at the hand from his end, pairs JJ & up are much more likely holdings, and he's got them beat.

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I hope he thinks this way, because folded to me in the CO I'm raising pretty much ATC here unless the blinds and/or button are extremely loose preflop. I would do that with 52o, J5o, hell any 5 there. And of course I'd do that postflop.

robwhufc said:

In reality there isn't much difference between $18 and $27. If called the remaining money will likely go in on the river anyway. $18 is probably more likely to be called by slightly weaker holdings, if we know opponent had 77 we could size out bet more accurately.

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If there's not much difference I pick the larger amount, because we want to maximize equity since we know we are ahead. Now let's look at the odds required for a flush draw. Let's assume I'm paying either one off on the river with an all-in, since he's doing it with hands like sets and such (we'll ignore board pairs that flush because they're not very common and I don't feel like doing extra work). On the turn a flush draw is a little over 20% to hit, but since I have a club, let's just round it down to 20% (it's 20.45% assuming that club is still in the deck).

So he's 4 to 1 against to hit if he's on the flush draw, we need to give him worse than 4 to 1 implied odds. We know we're going to call at least (we're not folding the nuts lol) so the pot before we raise is 13.95. Effective stacks are $47.20, meaning we have about $40 left behind at this point. They will be calling x to win 13.95 + x + (40-x) = ~54. To give a flush draw bad odds we need to bet at least 11, and since that's on top of the bet we need to bet at least to 16. A set has 10 outs rather than 9 so both of these odds are practically identical. So we have the nuts, and assuming we'll stack the river regardless of what hits we want the most above 16 that we think will call us.

GoodWoodRR said:

At those stakes I shove. There's usually someone who will call thinking ur on a bluff.

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Well there's only one person, so the word "someone" is kinda irrelevant here, and even if they think we're on a bluff, they're not going to call us on this board with A high. Our bluff could be 22. Also I disagree with your statement, a lot of the time people at these stakes don't even think beyond "it's a big bet, he probably has a big hand".