Trips vs. River Shove (100nl FR)

UTG: $140.15
UTG+1: $19.50
UTG+2: $158.75
Hero (MP1): $101.50
MP2: $31.95
CO: $248.50
BTN: $150
SB: $85.05
BB: $131.60

Pre-Flop: K Q dealt to Hero (MP1)
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) K 9 K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($32.50) 7 (2 Players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls $15

River: ($62.50) 4 (2 Players)
BB bets $100.60 and is All-In, Hero ??

Is this ever hands other than AK or sets? I'd hate to fold this here but would KJ- shove here?

Hard spot, imo I would call, but I don't think he has AK, from bb imo he would 3 bet us with AK unless he is really tricky, idk since I don't have any info on the villain. Has villain done anything like this before? Any info on the villain? imo here I put villain on 3 hands, KJ or weaker, 99 and maybe 77. I doubt its 77 though, very possible KJ or weaker and maybe 99, I can see 99 doing this.

If you did call, you think you could pm me results.

yeah zach, any info on villian?
right now, Id say villain has weak king, for set with lower kicker, or 9-something, for 2 pairs?

KerouacsDog said:

yeah zach, any info on villian?
right now, Id say villain has weak king, for set with lower kicker, or 9-something, for 2 pairs?

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2 pair won't shove that river, imo either 99 or weak K

I'm gonna have to look at his stats tbh. If he's anything like tight I consider folding here. If he has anything like donkish stats, its a fist pump call imo.

Well, you've played it quite passively so far and there's a busted flush draw, so it's not impossible that you're ahead, but I don't think a legitimate hand that you beat shoves here.

Unless villain is very donkish, i vote for a fold.

bob_tiger said:

2 pair won't shove that river, imo either 99 or weak K

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never say wont, bob, until we have info on villian who's to say he wouldnt shove with 2 pair on river?

Sorry, villain is 12/7/2

WTSD is 27% and W$SD is 43%

This is all over like 1600 hands.

IMO your playing against a full house.
Run ...... Run away
He check calls the flop while staring at two kings.
You flat call the turn... Maybe you should have raised here to see what he'll do.
He shoved the river thinking you'll call no matter what.
Not having any read on him thats my opinion..

zachvac said:

Sorry, villain is 12/7/2

WTSD is 27% and W$SD is 43%

This is all over like 1600 hands.

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lol, what?
not having PT, but having picked up a tiny bit about the stats Im understanding that the 12 is 12%VPIP$, and the other two?
Whats his overall image, as defined by those stats, ie TAG, LAG, whatever?

KerouacsDog said:

lol, what?
not having Poker Tracker, but having picked up a tiny bit about the stats Im understanding that the 12 is 12%VPIP$, and the other two?
Whats his overall image, as defined by those stats, ie TAG, LAG, whatever?

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7=PFR - how often he raises preflop
2=AF - Agression factor, 2 is in the middle, a little aggressive but not maniac aggressive

The other 2 are showdown stats, he goes to showdown 27% and wins at 43% of showdowns. So generally he's a TAG I'd say, He goes to about an average number of showdowns and wins less than a winning player should. Since he's got a 2 AF this means he's definitely capable of bluffing here, but the thing stats won't give info on is bet sizing, and until proven otherwise I think I have to assume a big bet indicates a bigger than average hand.

yeah TAG says, imo, he has you beat.
thanks for summary, zach

I think i call this here and expect to be up against a flopped combo draw, j,t clubs, q,t clubs etc. Purely for the fact that the turn bet is pretty small and surely with a king or 9's full, villain bets more on the turn to give you incorrect odds if you are on a draw. The river shove is hardly a value bet either so i can only see it being a busted draw or weak king. You havn't repped a king either so you have opened the door for villain to push you off a hand in villains eyes.

Its a very tight one, but i think i call

Edit: Another possibility actually is that villain has pock 4's or k,4. It's real close but i think i'm ever so slightly edging towards a call

switch0723 said:

The river shove is hardly a value bet either so i can only see it being a busted draw or weak king.

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If villain has read Harrington on cash games, this is exactly how he plays 99 on the river. Shove the nuts.

I think weak kings are the least likely hands, unless villain is a huge donk. He either has the nuts or a very weak hand with no showdown value such as a busted draw

I think I would have to make the call here. I know it is a big risk but the odds of him winning are slim. I think you have him here.

I think I'd look him up. He's usually either got the nuts or he is bluffing. There's straight and flush draws that bricked that he may have played this way. Anyone like reraising here on the flop?

BelgoSuisse said:

hand with no showdown value such as a busted draw

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Yah, flush missed, call down light if he's like a 30/2/3 or something like that.

Against this nitty regular, I'm pretty torn. Doesn't look too good for your hand. I could maybe get away from it if I had like a 2 minute time bank. How often are these ABC tags running multi-street bluffs like this? The only thing that makes me inclined to call is that he was defending from the BB, but even then I doubt he's getting involved with KJ, KT.

I would call. I get the feeling that he has a weak K or maybe even a busted flush.

i do think a KJ would push here and i may call here
but then again i would have liked to see how he has been playin previously

you gotta make the call

You gotta make the call here with trips-poker is part luck-I say he has K-10-go ahead you got him beat. I think he is just trying to bluff you of the pot.

BelgoSuisse said:

If villain has read Harrington on cash games, this is exactly how he plays 99 on the river. Shove the nuts.

I think weak kings are the least likely hands, unless villain is a huge donk. He either has the nuts or a very weak hand with no showdown value such as a busted draw

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good point well made

I really don't know anymore, villain's hand is likely either 9's full, 4's full, or a busted combo draw. Folding seems a good play but so does calling, i really don't know which is best.

ok well I think for a while, use the time bank, decide that since I've played the hand so passively I can't really fold here with this kind of hand. I honestly didn't even think about sets, I was almost sure that first off this was not a bluff (because although I played it relatively passively, I still called 2 streets, not usually the place where most would over-bet bluff). So basically I was looking at whether he had AK here. I actually thought about folding, finally decided to call, and smacked myself (ok well not really) for not even considering the sets that had me. I still think it wasn't an easy fold, but the discussion here has convinced me that although the call wasn't horrible, I think the correct play is to fold here.

But the winner is:

BelgoSuisse said:

If villain has read Harrington on cash games, this is exactly how he plays 99 on the river. Shove the nuts.

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He had 99 here, although they are definitely not the nuts, as KK, K9, K7, and K4 all have him beat here.

All in all gotta give villain credit here. He put me on exactly the kind of hand I had, probably hoping for AK, and shoved hoping I'd call and he'd have me. He shoved, I called, and it worked out for him, I just didn't like it so much .

w/e, thanks for the input all.

If this were me, it would be 99, 77 or 44 every time. If he's anything resembling decent, there's no particular reason he should risk this overbet if he just wanted to bluff. If he missed a flushdraw, he could just as easily bet the pot on the river and get you to fold as shoving.

If he sucks, he can have all sorts of kings with bad kickers or he can be desperation bluffing. But if he doesn't suck (on the very loose/aggressive side) then he has the nuts.

Oh, ah. And now I see that he's a nit. That makes folding almost trivial. And I also see that I came in too late for this thread and that the results had already been posted but anyway.

By the way, it "being 44 or 77" for me is only looking at the river play. I get that he doesn't checkraise 44 or 77 very often on a flop like this, but my point was that the only hands I shove with are total monsters.

That said, notice how bad his bet sizing is. He was so desperate to not lose his customers that he was forced to make a huge bet on the river, which is a pretty bad play. If he bet close to pot on the flop and turn, the idea of laying down KQ would never even have entered my mind.