Trips vs. River Bet, call or raise? [50nl FR]

MP2: $40.10
Hero (CO): $49
BTN: $11.70
SB: $65.60
BB: $59.25
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $29.50
MP1: $143.10

Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (CO)
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50, MP2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) T A 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($11.75) A (2 Players)
BB bets $5

There's $38.50 behind. Call or raise? If we raise and villain shoves what do we do?

Villain is an 18/11.

I don't see much value in raising here. What's he paying us off with, AJ? is that even in his range from the BB?

He doesn't think you have an Ace after your check on the turn so his range for betting on the river has widened to a pair of tens, two pair. The other, less likely hand is J-9 giving him a straight. It would explain the call on your flop bet and the check on the turn, hoping you'd bet into him again for a check raise. What it doesn't explain is the pre-flop call.

I would just call.

I should also mention that if we do raise, we'd pretty much have to call a shove (we'd be getting like what, 3.5:1 if we raise to $18) and I don't see him ever shoving over a raise with something we beat though. Other than a pure bluff that is, but that doesnt make much sense.

dsvw56 said:

I should also mention that if we do raise, we'd pretty much have to call a shove (we'd be getting like what, 3.5:1 if we raise to $18) and I don't see him ever shoving over a raise with something we beat though.

Click to expand...

Which is why you shouldn't raise to $18 if you are going to raise?

What's his aggression like? That might change exactly what I do.

A smaller raise should be profitable long term as I strongly suspect you are ahead far more often than you are behind... I plugged in a range of hands the villain might have played this way into pokerstove and we are 67/33 vs that range. The way you have played this hand too might induce a call of a smaller raise from hands you beat. weaker aces are certainly calling if they aren't shoving. a ten might call. a pp like JJ or 99 might call.

I think I like a smallish (min or close to it) raise and a fold to a shove here as played. Someone with those stats won't shove much you beat and will most likely call with an ace you beat and several other hands possibly.

hell you might even fold out the straights depending on how nitty he is. (i doubt it though haha)

Tygran said:

Which is why you shouldn't raise to $18 if you are going to raise?

Click to expand...

Even if we raise to $12, we're still getting like ~2.4:1 if he shoves.

We hate a shove, and he rarely has a hand that can pay off a raise. By flatting we lose the min to hands that have us beat, get max value from his bluffs, and avoid getting in a tough spot where we may end up folding the best hand if he goes crazy with something like AJ, or paying off the nuts.

Raising never folds out hands we beats, we only fold out bluffs, which we already have max value from. He rarely has a hand we beat that will call a raise, maybe the few aces in his range and the ocassional PP, though I don't ever see JJ-KK showing up in his flatting from the BB range. And we re-open the betting for him if he has the nuts.

Call, and it's not even close imo.

dsvw56 said:

He rarely has a hand we beat that will call a raise, maybe the few aces in his range and the ocassional PP, though I don't ever see JJ-KK showing up in his flatting from the BB range. And we re-open the betting for him if he has the nuts.

Click to expand...

what stakes do you play?

I think you'd be surprised how often someone has a hand we beat in these spots with those stats and will just flat call at $50 NL.

QQ/KK won't flat us preflop sure.

JJ maybe will maybe won't.

99/random tens/weaker aces absolutely will.

I don't absolutely hate just flat calling this on the river at all. I'm just wondering if it isn't profitable to try and get some more out of hands we do beat that would do this cause I think there are several.

A raise folds out bluffs sure but then we've already got max value from bluffs and a $5 river bet is a very strange bluff anyway, it might fold out some hands we beat but I really don't think he folds them all out or even close to all of them out. I also don't think he shoves on a bluff... if he's got AJ he's obviously worried about what we have from how he's played it.

18/11: clearly this eliminates AK KK and QQ, as he would have 3bet pre (unless he has shown some trappy tendencies, or your image is such that he thinks it might be a good play against you). 11% looks like he would be chomping at the bit to repop you, however.

What's his pfa like?

I guess if you are unwilling to call the shove you shouldn't raise here. I would really suck to fold to his maniacal AJ.

You checked the turn for pot control, right? The third ace doesn't really change much (if you were behind you are still behind: your hand didn't really get stronger relative to his). So play the small pot and call.

ever consider it might be a chop pot zach?? AQo maybe??

I kind of like a minraise on the river. It gives him good odds to call with all the weaker hands he may hold. If he shoves on you I think it's very unlikely that he will do this with a hand that you can beat, or an outright bluff for that matter, and you can fold without being too committed. I think calling is ok too if you want to play it safe, but I think you can squeeze a little extra value out of this hand, especially since you may have induced action by worse by checking behind on the turn. His $5 dollar bet may be him trying to set a price for showdown since he's oop.