TPTK Played passively, facing triple barrel (200nl FR)

BTN: $272.45
SB: $81
Hero (BB): $200
UTG: $208.85
UTG+1: $100.90
UTG+2: $310.95
MP1: $37
MP2: $329.75
CO: $204.20

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $8, 5 folds, Hero calls $6, UTG calls $6

Flop: ($25) K J 8 (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $12, Hero calls $12, UTG folds

Turn: ($49) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $38, Hero calls $38

River: ($125) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $94, Hero ???

Villain is 6/6/inf over ~350 hands (yes that means he has yet to call once postflop, he pretty much folds or raises to bets). Pretty dry board, no real draws apart from a few gut shots or 9T/QT. We've shown practically no strength, check-calling both the flop and turn. Does the way we've played the hand require us to call the river bet just because we look so weak? Just seems like this is never a bluff and nothing we beat with the possible exception of KQ is doing this. But when we have this strong of a hand and this aggressive of an opponent when we have shown almost no strength, can we find a call here?

I don't think a guy this tight double (or triple ldo) barrels anything but hands that have you beat. I just fold the turn.

I think I fold the turn here. Once he bets the turn, you're at best hoping for a split I think. I don't see KQ being too much of his range and I doubt QQ or AQ double barrels here.

Maybe I'm just used to the crap players at 25nl ... but ...

1. I can understand calling preflop and not raising.

2. I am not sure why you did not reraise on the flop. Were you slowplaying? Or scared he had a monster hand like AA or a made set with JJ? This seems contrary to your style.

3. This is a really tight dude, and although ChuckTs makes an excellent point about a guy this tight never double or triple barreling on a bluff, who's to say this dude doesn't have a real good hand like QQ figuring you for midpair or worse when you are just showing no strength through out the hand? I wouldn't be surprised for him to show AK also. Also his "inf" agressiveness stat (although not gospel is an indication he is really married to his hands when he gets in there) might be him overplaying his hands.

Again this my thinking and at the levels I play I don't see any sophisticated moves outside of the patented "check raise" which happens once every 200 hands.

Stop giving nits action without the nuts.

c9h13no3 said:

Stop giving nits action without the nuts.

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way to put it

icemonkey9 said:

2. I am not sure why you did not reraise on the flop. Were you slowplaying? Or scared he had a monster hand like AA or a made set with JJ? This seems contrary to your style.

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What would this accomplish here? Most likely it would fold out worse hands and get calls/re-raises from better ones. Just a pretty dry board.

Well just for reference, the 6% range is the following (actually it's 5.6%, but the next hand isn't added until like 6.5% I think, and it would be AQo):

88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo

With such an aggressive opponent, I was just thinking this could easily be something like KQ or mid to high pocket pair.

So I thought it was a bit tougher than most people here, and I still am not sure folding the turn would be correct, but I did end up folding river, and he didn't show.

Why fold river if you call the turn? The river didn't change didly squat. Your read on the turn should have been he's either barreling or has you beat. The commit decision is there.

After calling the turn, I think we're in it to win it, and I'd look him up here.

But I think the real issue is not 3-betting or folding preflop. You'd have a much easier time stacking with TPTK in a 3-bet pot. AKos is gonna whiff too many flops too often, and you'll be out of position, so its not like you're going to be able to make moves on him. I don't mind folding it since his range is so strong, but that's pretty nitty IMO. But I'd rather hold pocket 3's or 98s against a big nit than AK.

c9h13no3 said:

Why fold river if you call the turn? The river didn't change didly squat. Your read on the turn should have been he's either barreling or has you beat. The commit decision is there.

After calling the turn, I think we're in it to win it, and I'd look him up here.

But I think the real issue is not 3-betting or folding preflop. You'd have a much easier time stacking with TPTK in a 3-bet pot. AKos is gonna whiff too many flops too often, and you'll be out of position, so its not like you're going to be able to make moves on him. I don't mind folding it since his range is so strong, but that's pretty nitty IMO. But I'd rather hold pocket 3's or 98s against a big nit than AK.

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Because a third barrel narrows his range. Most ranges will narrow with bets. His bluff range is just much larger with a double barrel. I haven't shown strength, but haven't shown extreme weakness either staying with him the entire time (I could be slow-playing a set, although here's the problem, I rarely would check in front on this river with a set, being oop sucks). Basically this bet polarizes his range. There are definitely less KQ hands and more KJ/set hands, but to say the fact that he bets this river changes nothing? Not quite accurate imo. I called river because I thought I was ahead of his range at that time and folded river because his range has improved overall and I believe I am no longer beating his range. If you disagree with that that's fine and I'd appreciate a response (I mean that's kind of why I posted this in the first place lol), but I definitely disagree that a decent-sized river bet doesn't give us any additional information about his hand.

FWIW, his AF tells you nothing here except that he doesn't call. Just because his AF is Inf. doesnt mean he's any more or less likely to DB or TB than someone with an AF of like 3. This is why I prefer AgFreq% so much more now. He could easily have an AF of Inf. while only taking an aggressive action like 20% of the time.