Tough decision on the turn

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brazilkill18

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This is at Parx. 1/2 game.
Villain 1 is is this old lady who's pretty much level 1. I had already cracked her KK with a set of deuces.
Villain 2 is a middle aged Indian man, whose wife is sitting right behind him and watching. He overvalues his hands, such as baby Aces or baby pocket pairs. He and I have only gotten involved in the first hand of the session where I was BB and there were 4 limpers. I raised to $10 with 99 and he limped min raised me. Heads up board was K high... we checked it down. My 99 were good against his A9 off.

Villain 1 BB ($80)
Villain 2 UTG + 1 ($ 340)
Hero BTN ($ 480)

9 handed. 2 limpers to btn with KsJs. Hero makes it $10. Villain one makes it $18. Villain 2 calls. Folds to button who calls.
Flop: Kc 9s Qs

Villain 1 bets $ 20. Villain 2 calls. I make it 80. Villain 1 is all in. Villain 2 is tanking. After almost 30 seconds he calls. Turn is a Jh. Villain 2 shoves for about $200.

Hero?
 
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brazilkill18

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Thanks for the feedback, all!
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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We have 13 possible outs to win. 9 spades, 2 kings and 2 jacks. Roughly 26% equity. My maths suggests we're calling $200 to win a $700 pot. That means we need a bit more than 28% equity. Villain 2 almost always has a straight here. We also aren't drawing to the nuts, there's a chance either villain has the nut flush draw.

It's a tight spot but for me would be a fold.
 
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tomnovember

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Maybe just fold here. The villain can definitely not let a Q fold, so his shoving here is for both value and protection. So no need to call as you can always see his hand.
 
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jj20002

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if he is no bluffing obviously he had the T (AT, KT, QT, JT, TT, T9) and he could have had the flush AsTs,

then you had the possibility to get the flush (if he didnt have ATs) then you had 9 winner cards left on deck, plus 2 jacks and 2 kings that gave you the full, so it`s 13 cards and also add 2 or 3 Tens that could give you a straight (here is a tie)

so remaining 46 cards and substracting 3 more cards (the tens) your odds are 13/43

now the pot is around 360 bucks plus 200 added from the villain2 so is 560 and you are going to risk 200

now 13/43 is worse than 200/560 so unless you thought he had a lot of bluff at least 50% of the times the villain is bluffing then the equity could be positive otherwise the right call was fold

and by the other hand you put like 30% of your money in the pot (huge and painful) but still you are not comitted so fold
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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I don't think i could resist myself from calling this bet.

I am making this call only against such a villain. He is playing like a fish and once we made a strong raise on the flop and improved our hand on the next street i am not going to just give up my hand against such a loose player.

Also if he is overplaying his weak aces i would 4bet pre flop in the previous hand where we had pocket nines for value against such loose player. You missed value in that hand.
 
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