Originally Posted by combuboom
shove all day. he's not folding often. board is way drawy, and you're OOP so extracting max on river is difficult. tiny re-raise will scare the hell out of him, possibly give a good draw correct odds (in position), and really turn your hand face up. just calling sucks for all the aforementioned reasons except replace scaring him/turning your hand face up with losing value and letting any draw get there. whereas a shove could be a big draw or look like a typical player at this limit who thinks AK is the nuts here
I can agree with part of this, but not all. The board being drawy shouldn't concern us at all. If he's on draw he wouldn't call the flop and minraise the turn. His line is not one that a draw would take, so if we're shoving because of the draws,
then we're forgetting to get value out of our hand and we're making a huge mistake.
If instead we're shoving to hopefully represent a big draw and get called,
then it sounds better. But I don't think this works most times, because all throughout the hand Schatz has shown strength, PF, flop and turn. A shove now hardly resembles a draw, it's more like saying "I have it", and I can see some weird 2 pair folding to it if it's a good player. Of course one can argue that the minraise has the same effect, and it's true for the most part, but I think it gets called more often than the shove when we consider how this hand went from the start.
The biggest factors that should determine which approach is best are Schatze's image and how this villain has played so far. Schatze's image has to be a bit loose if we're going to shove and try to sell the "big draw" or "TPTK" line, or else we get a fold every time. All this assuming villain does have some kind of hand. This is where his image has a role. If he's the kind who we think might be trying to make a play at us, then just run the clock down a bit, call and give him a chance to bluff the river.
Anything except worrying too much about draws because I just can't see him having one.