Originally Posted by dbitel
Guy is a 25/17/3
... stacks are deep ...
My stab - and I don't really play NL, so pay no attention to me:
Breaking this down into groups of hands that villain can have:
1. Something that beats us
Essentially AK and sets, given his stats. Out of position, he's not likely to play K6, I'd think.
2. Something that has a lot of outs
At worst K♣J♣
(both have 12 outs), but all flush draws are in here.
3. Something that has some outs
I'm thinking A6 for five outs, or possibly K♣J♥
for three outs + backdoor flush draw.
4. Something that has very few outs
Pocket pairs lower than kings, paired kings without backdoor draws and kickers lower than queen. Pure bluffs count as well.
Against group 1, we want to put in as little cash as possible. From group 2, we want to get money in when our equity is positive. From group 3 and 4, we want to avoid shutting him down.
Rough guess as to how likely any of the different scenarios are:
1: 10%. He seems likely to repop AK PF, and sets happen rarely. Still, let's give him some credit for a real hand.
2. 25%. This makes sense.
3. 25%. This makes sense, too.
4. 40%. Bluffs, weaker kings, pocket pairs... A lot of hands go into this group. About as likely as 2 and 3, but there are more hands here.
We don't want to pay off group 1, but they're so unlikely that we can't afford to fold. We shouldn't raise, because the largest group - 4 - would simply fold, and for group 2 and 3, we'd be better served to call the flop and raise the turn (because our equity will be greater on the turn than on the flop if they miss, and we reserve the option of folding to a turn that gets really ugly somehow).
So I call.