Originally Posted by alan1983
Id say larrys range includes 2 pairs, sets, better straight, pair+diamond draw, or ten+diamond draw.
Think he'd do this with the ace of diamonds? AdX isn't in his range? And you think he would definitely slowplay a made flush? Even if it was on the low side like 4d5d?
Here's our equity in the pot vs. those parts of his range:
2-pair we're 82% to win
AdX we're 72-74% to win
set we're 66% to win
AdT we're 59% to win
KdX we're 61-58% to win
str8 with no flush draw we're 36% to win
Smaller made flushes we're 29% to win
Bigger made flushes we're crushed
str8 with a Kd we're crushed
Only bigger made flushes or bigger straights with a bigger diamond draw have us crushed. And we're not too far behind a bigger straight or a small flush. I think now is a great time to play for stacks. We'd like to get the money in here, since it gives us 2 cards to suckout against made flushes, bigger straights, and we're beating most of his range.
Also the turn could bring some *really* scary action killer cards for us. If another diamond hits, those sets & 2 pairs aren't paying us jack squat, and if we're getting action, we won't be too thrilled to be calling down with a T-high flush.
Go for stacks here. We have $109 behind and there's ~$17 in the pot. I'd raise him to about $24. My only fear is that since our stacks are so deep in relation to the pot, its going to be really difficult to get a player with 2-pair or a set to get their stack in. If someone comes over the top of us for the rest of their stack, we have to assume their range has significantly reduced, and things like 2-pair are certainly out of that range IMO.
/me votes for raise to $24