Squeeze flops showdown value [200nl FR]

zachvac

zachvac

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Villain pretty much standard TAG. Stats available on request.

Hero (BB): $209 (104.5 bb)

UTG: $200 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $254.05 (127 bb)
MP1: $122.30 (61.2 bb)
MP2: $200 (100 bb)
MP3: $703.70 (351.9 bb)
CO: $171.30 (85.7 bb)
BTN: $318.15 (159.1 bb)
SB: $224.80 (112.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 7
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T
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6 folds, BTN raises to $6, SB calls $5, Hero raises to $24, BTN folds, SB calls $18

Flop: ($54) T
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5
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J
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($54) 2
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(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, SB raises to $103

What if we have AJ?
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Am I the only one that thinks checking back the flop & betting the turn is a really exploitable line that has 2nd pair written all over it? I also think this flop is gonna get peeled by AK/AQ, so I don't really mind c-betting with AJ.
 
F Paulsson

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Villain's range is all that matters in this hand.

A standard TAG calls a 3bet OOP with..?

In my experience: Medium pairs. Maybe AQs. This is very, very rarely (basically never) AK when we're dealing with a reg at these levels, because he'd have jumped at the chance to backraise it. AA is a lot more likely than AK. It's not going to be KK much either, since again he'd most likely backraise it rather than see a flop and risk killing his action. QQ goes the same way.

So we're left with 77-JJ, AA, AQ, and maybe KQs. Sometimes KK, depending on our own image. Unless standard TAGs at Stars play differently than standard TAGs at Party.

I bet this flop with AA and better, and check back almost every other made hand. As soon as we bet, we're committing, and I don't see any particular reason to commit versus a range that is going to have us crushed when they come along for the ride. I'm of course also betting air and strong draws, but again, they're hands that I know what to do with when raised.

If this were me - and I'm sort of a standard tag, I guess - my range preflop looks like what I described above. If I think Zach marries the pot once he 3-bets, or that he folds all the time postflop, I might continue with smaller pocket pairs too, playing for set value and fold equity postflop.

There's no point for Zach to bet versus me on this flop, because I'm not putting in anymore money unless I bluff or have him beaten. There are only two draws in my range and that's KQs and AQs, both of which I'm probably getting it in on this flop with, and Zach has poor equity even against those. And I never pull a pure bluff on a flop this wet.

So if we bet, what hands in our opponent's range are we hoping he folds? Or which ones are we hoping he calls with?

With AJ, the case for betting is a bit better since AQ has fewer outs, but if I'm still checkraising you all-in with AQ, that matters little since you can't really call a checkraise with top pair against my whole range.
 
zachvac

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Am I the only one that thinks checking back the flop & betting the turn is a really exploitable line that has 2nd pair written all over it? I also think this flop is gonna get peeled by AK/AQ, so I don't really mind c-betting with AJ.

Here was my logic this far. He could easily C/R his monsters and will definitely be C/Ring his strong draws and maybe even AK. It's a pretty wet flop, so I check behind figuring betting simply gets action from hands I'm slightly ahead or way behind, not a good combination. So turn's a blank and he checks. I figure QQ+ and even jacks (QJ/KJ/AJ) bet this turn for protection. So I figure I don't want to give a free card here and I think I am most likely ahead at this point. I really don't expect a raise here, because it just makes little sense. It seems almost like his entire range here is draws. Am I crazy to consider stacking this here? I included AJ because I'm asking if that makes a huge difference. imo after this action AJ and 7T here are extremely similar. I don't see him taking his line with anything in between the two. He most likely already has us crushed or is drawing imo and I'd tend towards drawing just because I think checking turn after we checked back flop isn't a set/2 pair very often. Thoughts on stacking this?
 
zachvac

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Villain's range is all that matters in this hand.

A standard TAG calls a 3bet OOP with..?

In my experience: Medium pairs. Maybe AQs. This is very, very rarely (basically never) AK when we're dealing with a reg at these levels, because he'd have jumped at the chance to backraise it. AA is a lot more likely than AK. It's not going to be KK much either, since again he'd most likely backraise it rather than see a flop and risk killing his action. QQ goes the same way.

So we're left with 77-JJ, AA, AQ, and maybe KQs. Sometimes KK, depending on our own image. Unless standard TAGs at Stars play differently than standard TAGs at Party.
Also note that this is FR. FR 3 and 4-betting is kind of odd. Since most of the time AK/QQ are not stacking you see a lot of flatting with a wide range. It's almost the standard play to flat AA/KK oop to 3-bets. To balance it they seem to like to call with pairs/SCs oop. I think this is incorrect and is a huge leak, but for better or worse I think his range includes a lot of SCs along with pairs because a lot of players are basically scared to 4-bet light.

Anyway I do think AA/KK are a small part of his range here because he did flat a raise preflop. AK is slightly larger but also small portion. The problem I have with hands like these is I can not think of a single hand that I would even consider playing like this. So obviously he's using some different logic and I'm having a really hard time coming up with any logic behind taking this line (check-check flop and check-raise turn) with anything. When that happens I kind of think they're just full of shit and am inclined to stack off with any piece. Unfortunately when I do this sometimes they'll turn over the nuts. I really think this is a pretty polarized range. I relally don't see him doing this with QJ or even AJ.
 
F Paulsson

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I think I'd like to see his stats now, since you're putting AK and KJ in his range. Does he hate folding to 3bets and doesn't raise or even backraise AK? Does he 3bet? And what's his fold-to-3b%? If his fold-to-3b% is low enough to include KJ, why did you squeeze?
 
F Paulsson

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I missed that it was FR, sorry about that. People don't play well around the button, I guess is the lesson then?
 
F Paulsson

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Whee, 3 posts in a row for me!

Clarification regarding my first post: I was speaking only about the line to take on the flop when I spoke of ranges and why I think c-bettinig the flop is a bad idea.
 
zachvac

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I think I'd like to see his stats now, since you're putting AK and KJ in his range. Does he hate folding to 3bets and doesn't raise or even backraise AK? Does he 3bet? And what's his fold-to-3b%? If his fold-to-3b% is low enough to include KJ, why did you squeeze?

Well when I squeeze I'm not generally expecting a call ever from the caller, and mostly look at it as a 3-bet against the original raiser with some dead money in the pot. His fold to 3-bet is 100% though even after that hand, which has to be a bug or something. Maybe HEM only counts fold to 3-bet in hands where he was the original raiser? His 3-bet is 5%.
 
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baudib1

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Honestly, I don't know WTF he could have that checks two streets and then check-raises this much except air. Even a set of Js should not give you free cards because most of your three-bet range is drawing live against him on this board.

So, um, I don't think pushing on the turn is that bad but I'm a spewy nut.
 
F Paulsson

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Well when I squeeze I'm not generally expecting a call ever from the caller, and mostly look at it as a 3-bet against the original raiser with some dead money in the pot. His fold to 3-bet is 100% though even after that hand, which has to be a bug or something. Maybe HEM only counts fold to 3-bet in hands where he was the original raiser? His 3-bet is 5%.
It's possible that HEM counts it that way, yeah. I have to check that.

I really don't know what to make of his turn checkraise. It's not a line that makes much sense, so I think you have to look at your own image at the time and whether or not he might be tilting or hold a grudge against you specifically.

I'm not happy about getting it in on the turn even if his line looks superweird, and the reason is that his preflop range should be pretty strong so some of the time he may even be bluffing you with the best hand like T9 thinking that he can get you to fold AJ or even QQ to a turn check/raise. For a shove to make sense for you, he needs to fold, what... 40% of the time? With the odds he'd be getting, which looks like about 2.5:1 I guess, there needs to be a LOT of air in his check/raising range for him to fold 40% of the time. Would he fold QJ, or would he talk himself into making a hero call because you could be on a combo draw? I don't know.
 
vanquish

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i don't hate checking back the turn as well if you don't think he's ever check/calling that street (most people don't c/c the turn with draws), and if you don't know how you wanna react to a c/r. i prob fold in this spot, but i wouldn't really bet with the intention of folding to a c/r given the previous action. i don't think you can jam tens there for value, but with AJ you probably could
 
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He could be slow-playing a set made on the flop or turn. However, I'd buess that he's putting you on something like AK and that you're trying to buy the pot with a 2 that at best gave you a flush draw. That being said, I don't think I'd want to push that much into the pot on one pair, especially if he's at all capable of slow-playing QQ+.
 
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baudib1

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I still can't imagine what he has except a badly played set or badly played AA or air.
 
zachvac

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i don't hate checking back the turn as well if you don't think he's ever check/calling that street (most people don't c/c the turn with draws), and if you don't know how you wanna react to a c/r. i prob fold in this spot, but i wouldn't really bet with the intention of folding to a c/r given the previous action. i don't think you can jam tens there for value, but with AJ you probably could

The problem is I think he has outs here. I expect to be check-raised like never after a check-check flop so basically I'm simply betting for protection. Curious as to what between 7T and AJ you think he has here enough that it makes a difference? You think this is QJ a lot of the time?

For results, I actually ended up folding it, but the more I think about it the more I lean towards jamming just because nothing makes sense at all. Seems like maybe air or possibly a flush draw. I just don't see a set or overpair checking twice here and then jamming the turn.
 
vanquish

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he can easily have a pair better than yours and be "trapping you" by simply checking to you on two streets and then jamming for value
 
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baudib1

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Why would someone with an overpair check this board twice? It's sopping wet.

F Paulsson, please explain why you'd bet AA on the flop and check other made hands. I'm curious.
 
F Paulsson

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Why would someone with an overpair check this board twice? It's sopping wet.

F Paulsson, please explain why you'd bet AA on the flop and check other made hands. I'm curious.
AA and better. As in, the worst single pair hand I'd bet on the flop is AA. I'd check KK, and I'd bet JT, in other words. The reason is simply that that's around the point where I think our hot/cold equity versus his range is big enough that it makes sense to bet.
 
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baudib1

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So if you bet AA and get a call, do you c/c turn?

With KK: c/c flop, lead turn?
 
F Paulsson

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So if you bet AA and get a call, do you c/c turn?

With KK: c/c flop, lead turn?
We're in position. :)

Whether I bet the turn with AA after betting the flop depends on my opponent's WTSD and bet-river%. If his WTSD is high (>35%), I'm betting three barrels (or just shove the turn; I'm lazy and can't figure out stack sizes right now), but I doubt that this particular opponent would have a WTSD > 35%. If his bet-river% is > 35% (which would indicate either light river bets or a chunk of bluffs) then I'd probably check back the turn to induce.

With KK, I'd check back the flop and either call a bet on the turn or bet if checked to. If the action went exactly as it did in this hand and he check-raised me, I'd get it in here.

I don't have PokerStove on this computer and don't really want to install it, but could someone check our equity versus 88+,AQ+,KQ? I'm expecting AA to be around 70% and KK to be around 55% but my guess could be off. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a big drop in equity between AA and KK, and perhaps more than 15 percentage points.
 
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baudib1

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Are we primarily looking for pot control? As a tourney player generally we're looking to push very small edges. By that I mean, if we have like 52% equity against villain's range on this board, it's OMG I HAS AN OVERPAIR, ARRRRR-IN!
 
F Paulsson

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Well, "pot control" is not a concept that I'm very fond of because it's more a catch phrase than a strategy. The better way to think of it, in my view, is that if we get our entire stack in on this flop with AA, we're likely to be best, whereas this is not the case with KK. Even if our equity is 55% versus his whole range, it's certainly lower versus the range that he'd be willing to play for stacks with. I think aces stand up better versus his all-in range, is the point.
 
vanquish

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you guys have to realize that just because a flop is "really wet" doesn't mean that the guy isn't doing this with an overpair/set/2 pair. people will make plays that don't really make sense because they're "trapping". so keep that in mind.
 
jewboy07

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you guys have to realize that just because a flop is "really wet" doesn't mean that the guy isn't doing this with an overpair/set/2 pair. people will make plays that don't really make sense because they're "trapping". so keep that in mind.

or think they're trapping
 
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