Small full house on the river

Bombjack

Bombjack

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Villain is a bit of a tricky operator - has shown the odd bluff and sometimes overbets the river to steal. That's my read anyway. Also makes pretty terrible calls against the odds sometimes.

Question is, there's a big raise on the river already. Do you fold, call, raise, push?

Seat 3: glover24 ($81.40 in chips)
Seat 4: TAMKA ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Bombjack_x [ :7c4:,:7d4: ] ($84.95 in chips)
Seat 9: Villain ($46.70 in chips)
Seat 10: vdm81 ($27.30 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
vdm81 posts blind ($0.25), glover24 posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
TAMKA calls $0.50, Bombjack_x calls $0.50, Villain calls $0.50, vdm81 calls $0.25, glover24 checks.

FLOP [board cards :10d4:,:2s4:,:8d4: ]
vdm81 checks, glover24 checks, TAMKA checks, Bombjack_x bets $1.50, Villain calls $1.50, vdm81 folds, glover24 folds, TAMKA folds.

TURN [:8c4: ]
Bombjack_x checks, Villain checks.

RIVER [:7s4: ]
Bombjack_x bets $2.50, Villain bets $14, Bombjack_x...
 
gord962

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bombjack.... pushes

Villain probably has J9, trip 8s at best.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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What could he have that

a) beats you,
b) checks behind on the turn?

I'd push and expect to win a lot more than 50% of the time.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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My immediate fear was he has something like T8 or 87 for a bigger full house, or maybe even pocket Tens.

I suppose these are all unlikely. T8 unlikely just to call this flop, as it's a bit drawey. 87 unlikely because there's only one 7 left. Pocket Tens - probably raises pre-flop. Pocket Eights - inherently unlikely.

So if I think I'm winning, is pushing the way to go?

There's $5.50 in the pot on the river. He's raised to $14 and has $30.70 left. If he's bluffing he's obviously not calling the all-in, but will probably just fold to the re-raise as well. Is he likely to call an all-in with just an Eight, given the possible straights / full houses?

What if he had $100 left rather than $30.70? Then just raise it, or push?
 
blankoblanco

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I also think I'd push here. A straight is calling, we pretty much know that. Is an 8 calling? I think probably. You've said opponent can make pretty bad calls. Also, with his check behind on the turn, he might think he cleverly disguised his trip 8s so well that you wouldn't put him on it, even after the re-raise. I guess I just tend to underestimate players at this level as a general rule. If I see something to make me think otherwise, I'll make a note.

I know that most of us in his situation would be able to stop and think "well, what the hell is this guy pushing all-in with on this board that I can beat with trip 8s", but there are a lot of lotttt of players who would call a push here with trips every single time. If he's got a good kicker, he'd probably call and hope he had your trip 8s outkicked, but a lot of trip 8s with weak kickers still call here, I think.

If he's got T8 or 87 it's just quite a nasty bit of luck for you. But I'm guessing, at these limits, that pushing here is the most profitable move in the long run.
 
A

amputeesmile

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shove it. then re-load.
no, in all honesty, against most villains you're miles ahead, a trip to value town is in order.
 
Beriac

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For sure. What they said. You're ahead here way more than you're behind, and I think it's either someone with a substantially weaker hand like J9 or someone with even less than that hoping that you have AK and might possibly fold. Push.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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By popular demand...

RIVER [board cards :10d4: :2s4: :8d4: :8c4: :7s4: ]
Bombjack_x bets $2.50, Villain bets $14, Bombjack_x bets $80.45 and is all-in, Villain calls $30.70 and is all-in.

SHOWDOWN
Bombjack_x shows [ :7c4: :7d4: ]
Villain shows [ :8h4: :qd4: ]
Bombjack_x wins $132.15.

SUMMARY
Dealer: Villain
Pot: $133.15, (including rake: $1)
glover24 loses $0.50
TAMKA loses $0.50
Bombjack_x bets $84.95, collects $132.15, net $47.20
Villain loses $46.70
vdm81 loses $0.50

Pretty obvious when you think about it. I did actually put him on an 8, after he just called the flop bet. I was a bit worried about whether his kicker would make him a full house, but probably shouldn't have been.
 
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